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MD

Maryland 30 at UCF 24

UCF
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:33 · Mac Loudermilk punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingDefense timeoutsOffense timeouts
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 187Pregame prior−1.0Home team on offense+0.3Score differential−1.2Time remaining−1.0Defense timeouts−0.2Offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:40: McKenzie Milton 7 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick) — UCF win probability +20.4 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:41: Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +21.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  3. TD · OT 0:00: Perry Hills run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK) — MD win probability +18.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 31 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +34.1 pts (now 58%) (top driver: defense timeouts not recorded for this play).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Tyrrell Pigrome run for 24 yds for a TD — MD win probability +30.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 13:56MD 4th & 12 at MD 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:29UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:18MD 4th & 7 at MD 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:07UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 23, tied
    Close callWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.3%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 9:07UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 6:33MD 4th & 14 at MD 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:52UCF 4th & 1 at MD 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    34.0%−0.5
    70% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−2.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00MD 4th & 2 at MD 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:48MD 4th & 17 at MD 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−1.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:07MD 4th & 12 at UCF 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    54.1%−8.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:07UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 38, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:49MD 4th & 10 at UCF 33, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    49% to make
    Punt
    61.5%−1.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:49UCF 4th & 4 at MD 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−2.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    37.6%−2.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:52MD 4th & 8 at MD 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:04UCF 4th & 12 at MD 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−3.5
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−11.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:04MD 4th & 21 at MD 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−10.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:27UCF 4th & 11 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−2.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:46MD 4th & 8 at UCF 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−2.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:33UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.0%−6.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:33UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−13.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:06MD 4th & 4 at UCF 45, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 3.6 ptsWent for it · 52.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.1%−3.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%
    25% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 0:24UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:04MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:40UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:41MD Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
28.0%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
28.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+12
28.0%
Jawon Hamilton run for 12 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
28.0%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 48 McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by Mary Roman BraglioSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
28.4%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-5
28.4%
Perry Hills sacked by Demeitre Brim for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+3
28.4%
Perry Hills run for 3 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 12
OWN 46
0
28.5%
Wade Lees punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
29.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tristan Payton for 5 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 5
OWN 22
-5
29.2%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+13
29.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 13 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
29.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jawon Hamilton for 6 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 12:29
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-2
29.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 34 UCF Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 6
OWN 34
-6
29.1%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Jermaine Carter Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 28 McKenzie Milton fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 12:29
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
29.0%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
29.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Malcolm Culmer for 3 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
29.7%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the Mary 43Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
29.9%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
30.2%
Wade Lees punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
30.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 8 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 2
OWN 23
-5
30.8%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jawon Hamilton) to the UCF 18Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
30.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 5 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 2
OWN 23
0
30.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 2
OWN 23
+17
30.4%
Demeitre Brim run for 17 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-3
31.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jaquarius Bargnare for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+5
30.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jaquarius Bargnare for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
30.8%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan AkinsSimilar
Q1 9:07
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
30.6%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 47 yds, downed at the Mary 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+13
31.8%
William Likely run for 13 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
31.7%
Trey Edmunds run for 9 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+4
31.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 4 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
31.5%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 15
OWN 32
0
31.8%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to William Likely, broken up by Errol ClarkeSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 15
OWN 32
+1
32.1%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 1 yd to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 6:33
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
32.2%
Wade Lees punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2833% → 41%
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
33.1%
Adrian Killins run for 43 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
34.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+5
34.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 1
OPP 23
0
34.1%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 1
OPP 23
+8
33.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 8 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
34.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+2
34.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mary 9Similar
Q1 3:52
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+5
34.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Roman Braglio) to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for 4 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2460% → 59%
Q1 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
39.6%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 4 yds to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+1
40.0%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+3
40.5%
Perry Hills pass complete to Derrick Hayward for 3 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+9
40.8%
Wade Lees punt for 42 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 9 yds to the UCF 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FUMBLE
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
42.8%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 41 McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by Mary Chandler BurkettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 3:2461% → 66%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-7
39.5%
Perry Hills sacked by Jamiyus Pittman for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+17
40.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 17 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
38.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+13
38.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 13 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
38.6%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+4
38.6%
Perry Hills run for 4 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 13:28
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+7
39.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to DeAndre Lane for 7 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
33.8%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 7 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:0038% → 40%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
38.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+24
38.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 24 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
39.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+10
39.9%
McKenzie Milton pass intercepted JC Jackson return for 10 yds to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:5164% → 62%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
36.3%
Perry Hills run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
50
0
34.7%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 10
50
+1
35.1%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 9
OPP 49
-8
35.4%
Perry Hills sacked by Tony Guerad for a loss of 8 yards to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
37.7%
Wade Lees punt for 44 yds, downed at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
18 plays · 30 yds · 4:5940% → 42%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
40.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+3
40.3%
Adrian Killins run for 3 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 5
OWN 18
-9
39.4%
MILTON, M. rush for 6 yards to the UCF24, out-of-bounds (Carter, J.), PENALTY UCF holding (JOHNSON, Jordan) 9 yards to the UCF9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 14
OWN 9
+18
39.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 18 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
40.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 7 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
41.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
41.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+8
42.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 8 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-4
43.2%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 46 McKenzie Milton fumbled,Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 18
OWN 46
+21
41.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 21 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
47.2%
McKenzie Milton run for no gain to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-15
47.0%
UCF Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Adrian Killins) to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 25
OPP 48
+1
44.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Mary 47Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 24
OPP 47
-10
43.4%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Cavon Walker for a loss of 10 yards to the UCF 43Similar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 34
OWN 43
0
41.6%
Caleb Houston punt for 52 yds, downed at the Mary 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14FG
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:4659% → 69%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+15
40.9%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 15 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
39.8%
Perry Hills sacked by Tony Guerad for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 16
OWN 14
-7
40.4%
Edmunds, T. rush for 6 yards to the MARYLAND20 (BURKETT, C.;JOHNSON, Drico), PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Dunn, M.) 7 yards to the MARYLAND7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 23
OWN 7
+15
41.9%
Ty Johnson run for 15 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+12
41.6%
Ty Johnson run for 12 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+51
39.6%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 51 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
34.3%
Perry Hills pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+33
30.7%
Adam Greene 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 13 yds · 2:5368% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
31.7%
Ty Johnson run for 5 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
31.4%
Trey Edmunds run for 1 yd to the UCF 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+9
32.5%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 9 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
31.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, false start (Maurice Shelton) to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+3
31.7%
Perry Hills run for 3 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
31.8%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
33.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by Shaquill GriffinSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+38
36.6%
Adam Greene 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
36.3%
Jawon Hamilton run for 6 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
36.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 7 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
36.9%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+3
36.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 12:07
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
38.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q3 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 38
-5
35.8%
Mac Loudermilk run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5468% → 64%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
32.5%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Malcolm CulmerSimilar
Q3 10:43
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
32.6%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 10:01
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
34.7%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Teldrick Morgan, broken up by Seyvon LowrySimilar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
36.3%
Adam Greene 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0039% → 41%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
39.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 8 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+2
41.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
41.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 15 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
42.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jawon Hamilton) to the Mary 47Similar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
40.4%
Dontravious Wilson pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by JC JacksonSimilar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
40.3%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 15
OPP 47
+11
38.6%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 9:49
4TH & 4
OPP 36
0
40.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan Smith, broken up by JC JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
35.3%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 6 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 7:52
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
34.0%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 41Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-15
34.6%
Hills, P. pass complete to Moore, D. for 4 yards to the MARYLAND45 (KILLINGS, D.J.), PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference (Jacobs, L.) 15 yards to the MARYLAND26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:52
3RD & 20
OWN 26
+12
37.9%
Perry Hills pass complete to D.J. Moore for 12 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
37.9%
Wade Lees punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0940% → 67%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
39.7%
MILTON, M. pass complete to AKINS, Jordan for 11 yards to the UCF36 (Likely, W.;Cockerille, S.), PENALTY UCF illegal block 12 yards to the UCF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+3
39.4%
Adrian Killins run for 3 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
39.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+71
37.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Jordan Akins for 71 yds to the Mary 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
46.5%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+7
66.8%
McKenzie Milton 7 Yd Run (Matthew Wright Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5940% → 68%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
60.2%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 16 yds to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
57.8%
Perry Hills pass complete to Levern Jacobs for 7 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+6
56.3%
Trey Edmunds run for 6 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
55.7%
Ty Johnson run for 15 yds to the UCF 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+12
54.0%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 12 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
53.8%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 3 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q3 0:41
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
32.1%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22FG
13 plays · 54 yds · 3:3740% → 53%
Q3 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
40.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+8
41.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 8 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
41.4%
Adrian Killins run for 13 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
44.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+17
42.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Cam Stewart for 17 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
46.1%
UCF Penalty, false start (Wyatt Miller) to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 42
+9
43.3%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+11
49.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 11 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
49.1%
Adrian Killins run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 24
0
48.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jaquarius BargnareSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 24
0
44.9%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+42
52.9%
Matthew Wright 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:0053% → 49%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
46.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 31Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
48.0%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to Levern JacobsSimilar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 12
OWN 31
-9
49.5%
Perry Hills sacked by Shaquem Griffin for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 21
OWN 22
0
51.5%
Wade Lees punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Chris Johnson at the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
56.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 9 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
59.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-1
58.7%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Jesse Aniebonam for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 11
50
0
55.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 11
50
0
52.9%
Caleb Houston punt for 35 yds, downed at the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 43 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
49.6%
Perry Hills run for 8 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+6
48.1%
Trey Edmunds run for 6 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
48.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 8 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+1
46.0%
Ty Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+5
45.4%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 5 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
45.0%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 13 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
43.6%
Trey Edmunds run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 8:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
43.7%
Lorenzo Harrison run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
44.4%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to DeAndre LaneSimilar
Q4 8:46
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
48.9%
Wade Lees punt for 41 yds, downed at the UCF 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 1:3456% → 50%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
55.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+4
55.4%
Dontravious Wilson run for 4 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 10
+1
53.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 11Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+2
49.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
54.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Jordan Franks, broken up by Jalen BrooksSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-3
54.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 13
OWN 10
0
51.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Taylor Oldham, broken up by William LikelySimilar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 13
OWN 10
0
49.7%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:3558% → 53%
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
41.8%
Ty Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 47Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
44.4%
Perry Hills pass incomplete to D.J. Moore, broken up by D.J. KillingsSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 12
OWN 47
-5
46.8%
MARYLAND Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 0:56
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+13
48.4%
Perry Hills pass complete to Teldrick Morgan for 13 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 0:06
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
47.2%
Perry Hills pass incomplete, broken up by Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 78%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
40.5%
Perry Hills run for 6 yds to the UCF 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+14
40.5%
Perry Hills run for 14 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
22.3%
Perry Hills run for 5 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 58%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
28.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-6
24.0%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 31Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 31
+31
58.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 31 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30FUMBLE
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 62%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+10
64.5%
MILTON, M. rush for no gain to the MARYLAND25, out-of-bounds (Carter, J.), PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Hill, A.) 10 yards to the MARYLAND15, 1ST DOWN UCF, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
64.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
64.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 2 yds to the Mary 13Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+8
62.4%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 8 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
64.7%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Cal Bloom, broken up by Jesse AniebonamSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
64.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Mary 2Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.3%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 11 yards to the Mary 17 McKenzie Milton fumbled, recovered by Mary Kingsley Opara , return for 1 yd to the Mary 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 31TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 90%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.5%
Perry Hills run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+24
9.8%
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 24 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre'Quan Smith for 31 yds for a TD MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Matthew Wright KICK)
+34.1
TD · OT 0:00
Tyrrell Pigrome run for 24 yds for a TD
-30.7
TD · Q3 0:41
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Adam Greene KICK)
-21.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com