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HOU

Houston 40 at Cincinnati 16

CIN
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2016 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 3:49 · Dane Roy punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cincy 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior−19.1Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. SAFETY · Q3 10:30: Tion Green run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY — HOU win probability +5.4 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:57: Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — CIN win probability +18.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:45: Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +23.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:16: Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +13.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:47: Hayden Moore pass intercepted for a TD Steven Taylor return for 74 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +11.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:47CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:41CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:49HOU 4th & 16 at CIN 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:14HOU 4th & 18 at HOU 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:18CIN 4th & 7 at HOU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:05CIN 4th & 1 at HOU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−1.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−4.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:46HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:26CIN 4th & 6 at HOU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.8%−1.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:58HOU 4th & 4 at CIN 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    53.9%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:42CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:33HOU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    56.0%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:14HOU 4th & 12 at CIN 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    54.1%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:38HOU 4th & 15 at CIN 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.6%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    58.3%−0.3
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 6:22CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 14, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:30CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 24
    Close callPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:00HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:12CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:57CIN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    64.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    64.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 11:45HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.3%−0.4
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:16HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:47HOU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:40HOU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0628% → 28%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
27.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 14 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
27.7%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
27.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
28.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
28.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 42 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:4872% → 70%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
28.1%
Duke Catalon run for 12 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
28.3%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+3
28.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 3 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+8
28.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
28.8%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
29.0%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+2
29.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
29.9%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5930% → 30%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
30.0%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 16Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
30.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q1 8:49
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
30.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
29.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:3370% → 72%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
29.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
27.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 39 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
6 plays · 76 yds · 1:3929% → 32%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
28.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete, broken up by Tyus BowserSimilar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+4
28.5%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+10
28.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 10 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
28.9%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+61
31.9%
Devin Gray 61 Yd pass from Hayden Moore (Andrew Gantz Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:0669% → 67%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
30.7%
D'Eriq King run for 12 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
30.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+3
30.8%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 7
OPP 29
-9
31.4%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Antonio Kinard for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 3:49
4TH & 16
OPP 38
0
32.8%
Dane Roy punt for 37 yds, downed at the Cincy 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:0433% → 33%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
32.6%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
32.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Jeremy WinchesterSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+7
32.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 7 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
32.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 55 yds, downed at the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 2:1568% → 65%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
32.4%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-15
31.9%
King, D'Eriq rush for 10 yards to the CINCINNATI49, PENALTY HOUSTON illegal block 15 yards to the HOUSTON26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+10
33.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-8
33.8%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Sione Tongamoa for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
34.8%
Dane Roy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5135% → 37%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
35.2%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+9
35.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Avery Johnson for 9 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
36.4%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
36.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Avery Johnson for 11 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
37.3%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
37.7%
Ross Trail run for 1 yd to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
37.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
36.5%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10INT
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:5265% → 64%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
35.4%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
35.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Houst 5Similar
Q2 10:51
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+11
36.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 11 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+11
35.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Grant Coleman return for 11 yds to the Houston 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11DOWNS
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0640% → 39%
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
39.9%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 8
OPP 19
0
40.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Jeremy WinchesterSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 8
OPP 19
+7
39.7%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q2 9:05
4TH & 1
OPP 12
-2
39.0%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1364% → 63%
Q2 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
36.4%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
36.5%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 19Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 19
0
36.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:46
4TH & 5
OWN 19
0
37.5%
Dane Roy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1541% → 40%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
41.0%
Hayden Moore sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 12
50
0
40.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Jerron Rollins, broken up by Howard WilsonSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 12
50
+6
39.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
39.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 34 yds, downed at the Houst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 3:2263% → 67%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
36.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 3 yds to the Houst 13Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+12
37.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 12 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
36.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
36.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 10 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
35.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 5 yds Linell Bonner fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
35.0%
Dillon Birden run for 4 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
34.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+28
34.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 28 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
33.0%
Duke Catalon run for 6 yds to the Cincy 14 Duke Catalon fumbled, forced by Jaylyin Minor, recovered Houst Duke CatalonSimilar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
33.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell Bonner, broken up by Mike TysonSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
34.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for no gain to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
32.8%
Ty Cummings 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
13 plays · 12 yds · 1:0534% → 35%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
34.3%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 30Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
34.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, False Start (Idarius Ray) to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
34.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Avery JohnsonSimilar
Q2 2:36
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+18
33.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 18 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-9
36.9%
Hayden Moore sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 9 yards to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 19
OWN 34
+6
34.0%
Mike Boone run for 6 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+2
34.1%
Ross Trail pass complete to Mike Boone for 2 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 1:42
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
34.9%
Sam Geraci punt for 47 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:1764% → 65%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+9
36.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 9 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 1
OWN 20
+8
34.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 8 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
34.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 25 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
31.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
32.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 14 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
30.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+38
34.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 20 yds Isaiah Johnson fumbled, recovered by Cincy Grant Coleman for a 1ST down , return for 53 yds to the Houst 0 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the Houst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17FG
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0842% → 47%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
41.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
41.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+37
46.6%
Andrew Gantz 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
39.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
12 plays · 29 yds · 3:3761% → 58%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
38.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
37.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q3 14:36
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
38.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
37.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
38.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 12:48
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+7
38.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 1
50
+6
38.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
37.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah Johnson, broken up by Linden StephensSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-2
37.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 12
OPP 46
0
39.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell Bonner, broken up by Antonio KinardSimilar
Q3 11:14
4TH & 12
OPP 46
0
42.0%
Dane Roy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20SF
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:3144% → 38%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-10
43.8%
Hayden Moore sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 20
OWN 1
-1
38.3%
Tion Green run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:3763% → 60%
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
36.9%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-5
35.5%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Cortez Broughton and Alex Pace for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+32
39.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 32 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-11
34.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 45 Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Houst Greg Ward Jr.Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+6
36.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 6 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 15
OPP 39
0
38.1%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 15
OPP 39
0
40.1%
Dane Roy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brayden Beard at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1040% → 38%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
39.6%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+4
40.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 4
OWN 14
0
38.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tyler Cogswell, broken up by Tyus BowserSimilar
Q3 6:22
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+8
38.0%
Sam Geraci punt for 49 yds , D'Eriq King returns for 8 yds to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23INT
13 plays · 49 yds · 4:5265% → 67%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
35.3%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 5:51
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
34.7%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Cincy 49Similar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+6
35.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
34.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 12 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+8
33.3%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+2
33.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
33.0%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 14
OPP 25
0
34.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+21
36.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 21 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Cincy 1Similar
Q3 1:51
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
34.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 6Similar
Q3 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+22
33.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass intercepted Alex Thomas return for 22 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:1542% → 68%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+28
41.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
50
+6
47.0%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+35
47.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 35 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
49.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 5 yds to the Houst 4Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
68.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:0141% → 69%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
59.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+5
59.7%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+26
60.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 26 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
54.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 9 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 13:34
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+8
52.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Mulbah Car for 8 yds to the Cincy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
53.0%
Mulbah Car run for 12 yds to the Cincy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
53.1%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+8
53.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-10
55.4%
Ward Jr., Greg rush for 1 yard to the CINCINNATI1, PENALTY HOUSTON holding 10 yards to the CINCINNATI12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+12
31.5%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:1238% → 40%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
38.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 8 yds to the Cincy 33 CINCINNATI Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 12
OWN 23
0
38.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q4 11:18
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+15
37.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 15 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.2%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
39.7%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Howard Wilson return for no gain to the Houst 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 60 yds · 4:0371% → 90%
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
28.9%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+8
28.3%
Duke Catalon run for 8 yds to the Cincy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
27.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 15 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
26.0%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 8:38
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+3
25.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 23Similar
Q4 8:20
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+2
26.7%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
25.1%
D'Eriq King run for 2 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+4
23.7%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+7
25.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 7 yds to the Cincy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
23.0%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 6:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
9.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 28INT TD
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:2211% → 3%
Q4 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
11.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 19 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
13.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 5 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 5:09
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+4
12.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 4 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+3
13.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 3 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
12.7%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Brayden BeardSimilar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+10
12.3%
Mike Boone run for 10 yds to the Houst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
14.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+74
3.2%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted for a TD Steven Taylor return for 74 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 29INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
1.0%
Ross Trail pass intercepted for a TD Howard Wilson return for 28 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:041% → 1%
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
1.0%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
0.9%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
0.8%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
0.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 yds, fair catch by D'Eriq King at the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 31Uncategorized
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:59100% → 100%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 24Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 13
OWN 24
-3
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 0:26
3RD & 16
OWN 21
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:45
Greg Ward Jr. run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
-23.9
TD · Q4 14:57
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+18.4
TD · Q4 6:16
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com