2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadSTBK aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreSTBK score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:14 · Alex Starzyk punt for 54 yds , Donavin Washington returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:25: Keith Kirkwood 5 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Austin Jones Kick), (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +1.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:16: Jager Gardner run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +2.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 12:39: Jager Gardner run for 4 yds to the Temp 45 — TEM win probability +0.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:09: Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 15 yds for a TD STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Austin Jones KICK) — TEM win probability +1.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:32: Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 7 — TEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: STBK has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 7STBK made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
- Q1 15:00TEM 4th & 9 at TEM 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snapGo for it91.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call91.9%average punt
- Q1 12:48STBK 4th & 12 at STBK 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.6%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q1 8:54STBK 4th & 2 at STBK 33, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.1%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q1 2:19TEM 4th & 3 at STBK 9, up 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.9%48% to convertField goal91.7%−0.289% to makePunt89.9%−2.0average punt
- Q2 14:10STBK 4th & 9 at STBK 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 9:02STBK 4th & 3 at STBK 24, down 28Close callPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it2.4%51% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:48STBK 4th & 14 at STBK 46, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.718% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 4:37TEM 4th & 4 at STBK 46, up 28Close callPunted · 98.4% before the snapGo for it98.4%48% to convertField goal98.0%−0.423% to makePuntTheir call98.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 0:17STBK 4th & 5 at STBK 8, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 15:00STBK 4th & 9 at TEM 49, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q3 4:41TEM 4th & 4 at STBK 4, up 35Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call99.7%−<0.193% to makePunt99.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 4:35STBK 4th & 8 at STBK 14, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 15:00TEM 4th & 7 at STBK 34, up 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%37% to convertField goal99.8%−<0.147% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:54STBK 4th & 2 at TEM 30, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%57% to convertField goal0.1%−0.156% to makePunt0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q4 14:54STBK 4th & 8 at TEM 18, down 38Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.132% to convertField goal0.2%79% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 10:35TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 21, up 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 9:41STBK 4th & 20 at TEM 35, down 38Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.110% to convertField goal0.1%45% to makePuntTheir call0.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 5:14TEM 4th & 2 at TEM 9, up 38Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:14STBK 4th & 2 at TEM 42, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.130% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:14STBK 4th & 5 at TEM 34, down 38Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%42% to convertField goal0.1%−<0.147% to makePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 8:54TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:25TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.5%97% to makeGo for two91.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:16TEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.0%97% to makeGo for two95.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:09TEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.2%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:26TEM Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+5
93.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 5 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 2PUNT7 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 12:48
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+10
93.1%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Harrison Jackson for 10 yds to the StBrk 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+2
93.1%
Joe Carbone run for 2 yds to the StBrk 10 Joe Carbone fumbled, forced by Avery Williams, recovered by StBrk Jonathan HaynesSimilar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 12
OWN 10
+5
93.1%
Marc Nolan punt for 46 yds , Sean Chandler returns for 5 yds to the Temp 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3TD4 plays · 51 yds · 1:1293% → 93%
Q1 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+44
92.5%
Cortrelle Simpson run for 36 yds to the TEMPLE 15 for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, personal foul (Jaheem Woods) to the StBrk 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5TD10 plays · 59 yds · 4:2193% → 94%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+21
92.5%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 21 yds to the StBrk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
92.6%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Romond Deloatch for 5 yds to the StBrk 33Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 5
OPP 33
-9
92.6%
Isaiah Wright run for 1 yd to the StBrk 32 TEMPLE Penalty, Offensive holding (Chris Myarick) to the StBrk 42Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
93.5%
Keith Kirkwood 5 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Austin Jones Kick), (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q1 2:19
4TH & 8
OPP 14
+5
93.3%
STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive offside (Aaron Thompson) to the StBrk 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 8INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
93.1%
Joe Carbone pass intercepted Sean Chandler return for no gain to the StBrk 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9TD2 plays · 21 yds · 0:3694% → 96%
STBKDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
TEMDrive 11TD7 plays · 59 yds · 3:3096% → 98%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+18
96.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 18 yds to the StBrk 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.3%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for no gain to the StBrk 15Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
97.9%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 15 yds for a TD STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13INT2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
STBKDrive 14PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-7
98.5%
Joe Carbone sacked by Sharif Finch for a loss of 7 yards to the StBrk 46 Joe Carbone fumbled, recovered by StBrk Dennis Lestrange , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
STBKDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 1:151% → 1%
TEMDrive 17END OF HALF1 play · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
98.9%
Joe Carbone pass complete to Harrison Jackson for 11 yds to the StBrk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+10
98.8%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to H. Jackson, PENALTY TEM holding (HAIRSTON,Nate) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN SBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Andrew Trent, broken up by Artrel FosterSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 49
+48
98.9%
Marc Nolan punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the StBrk 40 , Sean Chandler returns for 48 yds to the StBrk 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD5 plays · 40 yds · 2:37100% → 100%
Q3 8:26
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+26
99.7%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Keith Kirkwood for 26 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 20INT3 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 21FG7 plays · 18 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 22PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 23DOWNS7 plays · 7 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-8
99.8%
Phillip Walker sacked by Josh Valentin for a loss of 8 yards to the StBrk 45Similar
Q3 2:55
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+7
99.8%
Phillip Walker pass complete to Adonis Jennings for 7 yds to the StBrk 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-11
99.9%
Phillip Walker sacked by Noah McGinty for a loss of 11 yards to the StBrk 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 24DOWNS9 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:35
4TH & 8
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Alex Starzyk punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Donavin Washington at the StBrk 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 26PUNT6 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
TEMDrive 27PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q4 5:14
4TH & 2
OWN 9
+13
99.9%
Alex Starzyk punt for 54 yds , Donavin Washington returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STBKDrive 28INT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:14
4TH & 5
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Pat Irwin pass intercepted, touchback. Benny Walls return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 29END OF GAME2 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:16
Jager Gardner run for 4 yds for a TD, (Austin Jones KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q2 9:09
Phillip Walker pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 15 yds for a TD STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Austin Jones KICK)
+1.6
TD · Q1 2:25
Keith Kirkwood 5 Yd pass from Phillip Walker (Austin Jones Kick), (Austin Jones KICK)
+1.4