Try the model
CIN

Cincinnati 38 at Purdue 20

PUR
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Ross-Ade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:21 · Sam Geraci punt for 45 yds , Malik Kimbrough returns for 5 yds to the Prdue 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Home team on offense−26.6Score differential−12.8Pregame prior−2.1Garbage-time factor−11.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:58: Hayden Moore run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +5.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:30: David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 19 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +5.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:19: Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +8.3 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:10: Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 28 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK) — CIN win probability +5.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:21: David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 36 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK) — PUR win probability +9.4 pts (now 15%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 3 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 1 at CIN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    66.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 10 at PUR 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:34PUR 4th & 2 at CIN 10, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.4%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.8%−0.6
    88% to make
    Punt
    30.3%−4.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:22PUR 4th & 2 at CIN 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.8%−1.2
    23% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00PUR 4th & 5 at CIN 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    22.9%−0.6
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 6:00CIN 4th & 3 at PUR 9, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.9%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    77.4%−8.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:00PUR 4th & 3 at PUR 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:42CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 47, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:43PUR 4th & 10 at CIN 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:44CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 27, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:48CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 31, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.8%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:21CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 25, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:19CIN 4th & 8 at PUR 23, up 11
    Close callWent for it · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    93.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−1.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3CIN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:07CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:58CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:30PUR Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:19CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:10CIN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:48PUR Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:21PUR Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:19CIN Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+20
32.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 20 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
32.7%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
32.7%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+1
32.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
32.7%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Prdue 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
32.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
32.7%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
32.7%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 44
-5
32.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Mike Boone) to the Prdue 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
32.7%
Sam Geraci punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2INT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
34.0%
Markell Jones run for 4 yds to the Prdue 16Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
34.0%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+9
33.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cameron Posey for 9 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
34.0%
Markell Jones run for 5 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
34.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Markell JonesSimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
33.9%
Markell Jones run for 9 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
34.2%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
34.2%
David Blough pass incomplete to Markell JonesSimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 41
0
34.0%
David Blough pass intercepted Mike Tyson return for no gain to the Cincy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3TD
3 plays · 85 yds · 1:0565% → 68%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+79
35.1%
Kahlil Lewis run for 79 yds to the Prdue 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
34.4%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Prdue 5Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
32.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 5 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:3333% → 34%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
33.1%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 11Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+20
33.1%
David Blough run for 20 yds to the Prdue 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
33.3%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
33.2%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 1 yd to the Prdue 32Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+18
33.0%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
50
+15
33.9%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Yancey, De, PENALTY CIN pass interference (STEPHENS, L.) 15 yards to the CIN35, 1ST DOWN PUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
34.2%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+12
34.2%
David Blough pass complete to Bilal Marshall for 12 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
34.2%
Markell Jones run for 5 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+3
34.2%
Markell Jones run for 3 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 2
OPP 10
0
33.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Markell Jones, broken up by Mark WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+28
33.8%
J.D. Dellinger 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 3:3667% → 74%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
33.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 22 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
32.1%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 2
50
0
31.9%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 2
50
+11
32.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 11 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
32.0%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
32.0%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:34
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+13
32.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the Prdue 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
31.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
31.9%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+7
31.7%
Tion Green run for 7 yds to the Prdue 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
31.4%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Prdue 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
31.4%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Tim CasonSimilar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
25.9%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:2827% → 34%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+36
27.2%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 36 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
28.4%
Markell Jones run for 2 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+5
28.3%
Markell Jones run for 5 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+6
28.3%
David Blough run for 6 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
28.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+15
28.6%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 15 yds to the Cincy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
28.7%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 11
OPP 19
0
28.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+19
34.4%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 19 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:1168% → 78%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.1%
Hayden Moore run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
32.3%
Mike Boone run for 18 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
30.8%
Hayden Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+7
31.0%
Hayden Moore run for 7 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+13
30.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 13 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
30.5%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Prdue 31Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
30.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+6
30.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 6 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
30.2%
Hayden Moore sacked by Andy James Garcia for a loss of 4 yards to the Prdue 29Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+9
30.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the Prdue 20Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
22.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8INT
13 plays · 45 yds · 2:5724% → 25%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
23.7%
David Blough pass complete to Jarrett Burgess for 3 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
24.3%
Markell Jones run for 8 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
24.7%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+7
24.0%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 7 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+3
24.7%
David Blough pass complete to Markell Jones for 3 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 3:22
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+4
23.8%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 4 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
24.2%
Cameron Posey run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+5
24.2%
Markell Jones run for 5 yds to the Cincy 31 Markell Jones fumbled, forced by Marquise Copeland, recovered by Prdue Markell Jones for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
24.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q2 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+11
24.6%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 11 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
24.7%
David Blough pass intercepted, touchback. Mike Tyson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9END OF HALF
9 plays · 44 yds · 1:2279% → 81%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
20.7%
Tion Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
20.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q2 1:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
21.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 7 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
20.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 4 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
19.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+10
19.4%
Mike Boone run for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+19
19.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 19 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
21.1%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 23 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
23.0%
Markell Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Prdue 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+7
22.7%
David Blough run for 7 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+5
22.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 5 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
23.1%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 5 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
0
23.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
0
22.9%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 36
+2
22.6%
Joe Schopper punt for 26 yds , Brayden Beard returns for 2 yds to the Cincy 12 Brayden Beard fumbled, recovered by Cincy Brayden BeardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11FG
13 plays · 79 yds · 5:5081% → 88%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
18.8%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
18.9%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Tion Green, broken up by Ja'Whaun BentleySimilar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 8
OWN 14
+18
19.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 18 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
18.5%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
17.9%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+29
17.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 29 yds to the Prdue 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
16.9%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
16.9%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Prdue 25Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+9
17.2%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds to the Prdue 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
16.9%
Josiah Deguara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Prdue 18Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+9
17.0%
Hayden Moore run for 9 yds to the Prdue 9Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
17.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Grant ColemanSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+26
12.4%
Andrew Gantz 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
13.9%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 7 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
14.5%
Markell Jones run for no gain to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
14.5%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cameron PoseySimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
14.0%
Joe Schopper punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-9
10.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Cincy 40 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (DJ Dowdy) to the Cincy 30Similar
Q3 4:42
1ST & 19
OWN 30
+7
11.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 7 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 12
OWN 37
0
11.3%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 37Similar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 12
OWN 37
+10
11.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 10 yds to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 4:42
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
11.6%
Hayden Moore punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
12.5%
David Blough pass complete to Tario Fuller for 13 yds to the Prdue 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
13.7%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Yancey, De, PENALTY CIN holding (STEPHENS, L.) 10 yards to the CIN48, 1ST DOWN PUR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
14.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique Young, broken up by Alex ThomasSimilar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
14.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q3 2:43
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
13.6%
David Blough pass incomplete to Bilal MarshallSimilar
Q3 2:43
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
13.1%
Joe Schopper punt for 40 yds, downed at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
8.8%
MOORE, Hayden pass incomplete to GRAY, Devin, PENALTY PUR pass interference (Norwood, Myles) 14 yards to the CIN22, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
8.7%
Mike Boone run for 5 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
8.6%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 1:44
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
8.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
9.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Malik Kimbrough at the Prdue 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 16INT
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:2911% → 11%
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
10.5%
Tario Fuller run for 4 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
10.8%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 10 yds to the Prdue 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
11.2%
David Blough pass intercepted Tyrell Gilbert return for 26 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17TD
2 plays · 32 yds · 0:3893% → 98%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
7.1%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the Prdue 28Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+28
2.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 28 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 18TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:223% → 6%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
2.8%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 9 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 1
OWN 44
0
3.1%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+2
3.0%
Tario Fuller run for 2 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
3.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to Gregory PhillipsSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
3.0%
David Blough pass incomplete to DeAngelo YanceySimilar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+17
2.9%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 17 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
3.2%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+20
3.4%
David Blough pass complete to David Yancey for 20 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
3.5%
David Yancey run for 6 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+3
3.5%
David Yancey run for 3 yds to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
5.8%
Richie Worship run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
4.0%
Tion Green run for 2 yds to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
4.1%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 27Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
4.1%
Hayden Moore run for 4 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q4 10:48
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
4.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Malik Kimbrough at the Prdue 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 20TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:114% → 15%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
4.2%
David Blough pass complete to Gregory Phillips for 13 yds to the Prdue 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+32
4.3%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 32 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
5.1%
Tario Fuller run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 36Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+36
14.5%
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 36 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
10.1%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
10.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Mike Boone for 4 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q4 7:21
3RD & 4
OWN 25
0
10.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Nate ColeSimilar
Q4 7:21
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+5
10.6%
Sam Geraci punt for 45 yds , Malik Kimbrough returns for 5 yds to the Prdue 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 22INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0011% → 12%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
10.6%
Blough, David pass incomplete to Phillips, PENALTY PUR holding (McCann, Matt) 10 yards to the PUR25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 20
OWN 25
0
9.8%
David Blough pass incomplete to Domonique YoungSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 20
OWN 25
0
9.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to Cole HerdmanSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 20
OWN 25
+5
9.1%
Blough, David pass complete to Marshall, Bilal for 9 yards to the PUR34 (JACOBS, Carter), PENALTY CIN offside (BROUGHTON, C.) 5 yards to the PUR30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+20
9.1%
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
50
+27
12.2%
David Blough pass intercepted Mike Tyson return for 27 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 2:3792% → 99%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
8.0%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Prdue 44Similar
Q4 4:51
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
7.1%
Mike Boone run for 3 yds to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 4:47
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+16
7.0%
Mike Boone run for 16 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
6.4%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the Prdue 25Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+1
6.0%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Prdue 24Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+1
6.1%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the Prdue 23Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 8
OPP 23
+23
1.3%
Hayden Moore run for 23 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 24INT
9 plays · 46 yds · 1:151% → 1%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
0.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 5 yds to the Prdue 38Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+6
0.8%
David Blough pass complete to Tario Fuller for 6 yds to the Prdue 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.9%
David Blough pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+26
0.9%
David Blough pass complete to Cole Herdman for 26 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
1.1%
David Blough pass complete to Terrance Landers for 9 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q4 1:04
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
0.7%
David Blough pass incomplete to David YanceySimilar
Q4 1:04
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
0.7%
David Blough pass intercepted, touchback. Alex Thomas return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
0.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 18Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:21
David Blough pass complete to DeAngelo Yancey for 36 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
+9.4
TD · Q2 6:19
Hayden Moore pass complete to DJ Dowdy for 20 yds for a TD, (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-8.3
TD · Q2 10:30
David Blough pass complete to Domonique Young for 19 yds for a TD, (J.D. Dellinger KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com