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UCF

UCF 14 at Michigan 51

MICH
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Michigan Stadium
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Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:35 · Kenny Allen punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICHIGAN 12 UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCF 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 100Pregame prior+33.6Home team on offense+26.0Score differential+19.6Blowout margin+7.3Garbage-time factor+7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:29: Khalid Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +0.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:55: Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 45 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +1.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:30: Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 14 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 11:10: Adrian Killins run for 87 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +0.9 pts (now 2%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 6:07: Kenny Allen 36 yd FG GOOD — MICH win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UCF made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 13:30UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:19MICH 4th & 11 at MICH 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:16UCF 4th & 15 at UCF 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20UCF 4th & 12 at MICH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    49% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:03UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:17MICH 4th & 6 at UCF 6, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:07MICH 4th & 11 at UCF 18, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.0%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:38UCF 4th & 16 at MICH 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:35MICH 4th & 7 at MICH 45, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:44MICH 4th & 12 at UCF 19, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:03MICH 4th & 4 at UCF 41, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:24UCF 4th & 14 at MICH 35, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:03MICH 4th & 2 at MICH 43, up 30
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:51UCF 4th & 1 at MICH 37, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:38UCF 4th & 3 at MICH 28, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:15MICH 4th & 1 at MICH 37, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:39UCF 4th & 1 at UCF 34, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:07UCF 4th & 6 at MICH 34, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:40MICH 4th & 1 at UCF 43, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:00MICH 4th & 4 at UCF 18, up 37
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UCF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:48MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:29MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:55MICH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:30MICH Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:10UCF Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:47MICH Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:03UCF Touchdown, down 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:24MICH Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 1:302% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.6%
Jawon Hamilton run for 11 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.6%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+9
97.6%
Justin Holman pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 9 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-4
97.5%
Justin Holman run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 13:30
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
97.4%
Caleb Houston punt for 13 yds, downed at the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:1198% → 97%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
97.5%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the Mich 47Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 47
-2
97.4%
Chris Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
97.3%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
97.3%
Kenny Allen punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:033% → 3%
Q1 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
97.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Jason Rae) to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the UCF 15Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 15
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Justin Holman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
97.2%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
97.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 27 yds, downed at the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4TD
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:2897% → 97%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.2%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
97.1%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+35
97.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 35 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
97.0%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the UCF 4Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
96.9%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the UCF 3Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 3 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5MISSED FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:283% → 3%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
97.0%
Justin Holman run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+4
96.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+30
96.9%
Justin Holman run for 30 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
96.8%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 13 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
96.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 12
OPP 33
0
96.6%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 12
OPP 33
0
96.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 12
OPP 33
+50
96.7%
Matthew Wright 50 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Chris WormleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:5197% → 97%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+32
96.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 32 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
96.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 11 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
96.7%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+8
96.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Henry Poggi for 8 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
96.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.5%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
97.1%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
96.9%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tre'Quan SmithSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+1
96.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 9
OWN 12
-3
96.9%
Justin Holman pass complete to Dontravious Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 2:03
4TH & 12
OWN 9
+11
96.8%
Caleb Houston punt for 47 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 11 yds to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
97.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 45 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9FUMBLE
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:412% → 2%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.7%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q1 1:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-2
97.8%
Justin Holman sacked by Chase Winovich for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 25 Justin Holman fumbled, forced by Chase Winovich, recovered by Mich Maurice Hurst , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10FG
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:5798% → 98%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
97.8%
Eddie McDoom run for 16 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
97.8%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
97.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
97.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chris Evans for 2 yds to the UCF 6Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
98.0%
Kenny Allen 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · -21 yds · 2:002% → 2%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
97.9%
Justin Holman run for 2 yds to the UCF 27 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (-13 Yards) to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 21
OWN 14
-12
98.0%
Justin Holman sacked by Rashan Gary and Ben Gedeon for a loss of 12 yards to the UCF 2Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 33
OWN 2
0
98.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Tristan PaytonSimilar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 33
OWN 2
-1
98.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Aaron Evans) to the UCF 1Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 34
OWN 1
+3
98.1%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 31
OWN 4
+35
98.1%
Caleb Houston punt for 43 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 35 yds to the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4698% → 99%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
98.3%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-2
98.3%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+14
98.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 14 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 0:201% → 2%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.0%
Justin Holman pass incomplete to Cam StewartSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+87
98.1%
Adrian Killins run for 87 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:0398% → 99%
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
98.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Henry Poggi for 2 yds to the Mich 15Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
98.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Henry PoggiSimilar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+20
98.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 5 yds to the Mich 20 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Demeitre Brim) to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
98.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 8 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 9:39
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
98.4%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Joey Connors) to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
98.4%
Wilton Speight sacked by Errol Clarke for a loss of 3 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+17
98.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 17 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
98.5%
Chris Evans run for 9 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+12
98.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 12 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
98.4%
Ty Isaac run for 4 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
98.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-5
98.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 6:07
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
99.3%
Kenny Allen 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15MISSED FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 3:291% → 0%
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.2%
Dredrick Snelson run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
99.2%
Jawon Hamilton run for no gain to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 5:01
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+35
99.4%
Justin Holman run for 35 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
99.4%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+11
99.7%
Jawon Hamilton run for 11 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 26
0
99.7%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jordan FranksSimilar
Q2 3:05
3RD & 10
OPP 26
-6
99.7%
Nick Patti run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 16
OPP 32
+49
99.7%
Matthew Wright 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:0399% → 100%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ian Bunting for 4 yds to the Mich 36Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
99.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+1
99.4%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
99.4%
Chris Evans run for 3 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q2 1:08
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
99.4%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Grant PerrySimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+48
99.5%
Kenny Allen punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICHIGAN 12 UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCF 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
99.6%
Dontravious Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 3:08100% → 100%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+23
99.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 23 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
99.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 17 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
99.6%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+20
99.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 20 yds to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.6%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.7%
Khalid Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 19FG
5 plays · -2 yds · 2:02100% → 100%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
99.7%
De'Veon Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+8
99.7%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 3
OPP 10
-9
99.8%
Wilton Speight sacked by T.J. Mutcherson for a loss of 9 yards to the UCF 19Similar
Q3 9:44
4TH & 12
OPP 19
+37
99.8%
Kenny Allen 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.7%
Nick Patti pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
99.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+26
99.8%
Nick Patti run for 26 yds to the Mich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
99.7%
Dontravious Wilson run for 34 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 21FUMBLE
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jehu ChessonSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+18
99.8%
Chris Evans run for 18 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
99.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q3 6:03
4TH & 4
OPP 41
-11
99.8%
Kenny Allen run for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 48 Kenny Allen fumbled, recovered by Mich Kenny AllenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q3 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Nick Patti run for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+17
99.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 2 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Maurice Hurst) to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
99.7%
Nick Patti sacked by Chris Wormley for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 35Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 14
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jawon HamiltonSimilar
Q3 4:24
4TH & 14
OPP 35
0
99.7%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Adrian KillinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:21100% → 100%
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jehu Chesson for 6 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ian Bunting for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Amara DarbohSimilar
Q3 3:03
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+12
99.8%
Kenny Allen punt for 39 yds , Chris Johnson returns for 12 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24DOWNS
14 plays · 42 yds · 4:250% → 0%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
99.8%
Nick Patti run for 7 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
Jawon Hamilton run for 4 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Dontravious Wilson run for 8 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the Mich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
Jawon Hamilton run for 3 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+5
99.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jabrill Peppers) to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 1
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Nick Patti pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:51
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+2
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
99.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Tyler Hudanick) to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 15
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for no gain to the Mich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 40
-1
99.9%
Nick Patti run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 41 Nick Patti fumbled, forced by Mike McCray, recovered by UCF Jordan JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+13
99.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Taylor Oldham for 13 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q4 13:38
4TH & 3
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Taylor OldhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:06100% → 100%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 29Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass incomplete to Jake ButtSimilar
Q4 12:45
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+8
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 8 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Khalid Hill run for 3 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 25 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the UCF 35Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+30
99.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 30 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26DOWNS
11 plays · 40 yds · 4:170% → 0%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 2 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q4 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 6 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+17
99.9%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Akins for 17 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 3 yds to the Mich 35Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
99.9%
Dontravious Wilson run for 1 yd to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Cal BloomSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 6
OPP 34
-1
99.9%
Nick Patti run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27END OF GAME
15 plays · 54 yds · 5:47100% → 100%
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
John O'Korn run for 2 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Devin AsiasiSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Kekoa Crawford run for 11 yds to the Mich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
99.9%
John O'Korn pass incomplete to Kekoa CrawfordSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+4
99.9%
Karan Higdon run for 4 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 3:40
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
John O'Korn pass complete to Khalid Hill for 4 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
100.0%
Karan Higdon run for 3 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+12
100.0%
John O'Korn pass complete to Michael Jocz for 12 yds to the UCF 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
100.0%
Chris Evans run for 2 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+2
100.0%
John O'Korn run for 2 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+2
100.0%
Karan Higdon run for 2 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+5
100.0%
Karan Higdon run for 5 yds to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
100.0%
Michael Hirsch run for 2 yds to the UCF 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 1:55
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 45 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+1
TD · Q2 11:10
Adrian Killins run for 87 yds for a TD, (Matthew Wright KICK)
-0.9
FG · Q2 6:07
Kenny Allen 36 yd FG GOOD
+0.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com