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SEMO

Southeast Missouri State 17 at Memphis 35

MEM
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadSEMO aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreSEMO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.4MEM 99.7%Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 35 · Q4 10:41
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:41 · Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+11.5Home team on offense+33.9Score differential+18.6Garbage-time factor+12.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+11.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:45: Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:40: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:45: Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 23 yds for a TD SE MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Jake Elliott KICK) — MEM win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:13: Will Young run for 61 yds for a TD, (Ryan McCrum KICK) — SEMO win probability +3.4 pts (now 5%) (top driver: SEMO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 0:05: Jake Elliott 45 yd FG GOOD — MEM win probability +0.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6SEMO made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:43SEMO 4th & 8 at SEMO 27, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:40MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 40, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:45SEMO 4th & 13 at SEMO 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:33SEMO 4th & 19 at SEMO 33, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00SEMO 4th & 3 at SEMO 29, down 22
    Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:38MEM 4th & 9 at MEM 27, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:03SEMO 4th & 10 at SEMO 24, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:45SEMO 4th & 11 at SEMO 38, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:45SEMO 4th & 10 at MEM 10, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    88% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00SEMO 4th & 10 at SEMO 36, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:38MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 16, up 26
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.7%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:07MEM 4th & 11 at SEMO 43, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    96.7%−0.4
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:21SEMO 4th & 20 at SEMO 19, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:05MEM 4th & 10 at SEMO 28, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00SEMO 4th & 6 at SEMO 16, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:41MEM 4th & 10 at SEMO 23, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SEMO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 12:43MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:45MEM Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:40MEM Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:45MEM Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:13SEMO Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:25SEMO Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1795% → 95%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
94.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 17 yds to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
94.7%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
94.7%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
94.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 15 yds to the SEMo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
94.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the SEMo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
94.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to John Williams for 13 yds to the SEMo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.7%
Riley Ferguson run for no gain to the SEMo 15Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
94.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 15 yds for a TD, (Anthony Miller pass to Daniel Montiel for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.4%
Jesse Hosket pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.4%
Will Young run for 2 yds to the SEMo 27Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
94.4%
Jesse Hosket pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+17
94.4%
Alex Knight punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 40 , Anthony Miller returns for 17 yds to the Memph 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
94.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
94.3%
Tony Pollard run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
94.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to John Williams, broken up by Omar Pierre-LouisSimilar
Q1 11:40
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
94.2%
Spencer Smith punt for 27 yds, downed at the SEMo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
94.1%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 7 yds to the SEMo 40Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+5
94.1%
Tremane McCullough run for 5 yds to the SEMo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-3
94.1%
Tremane McCullough run for a loss of 3 yards to the SEMo 42Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 13
OWN 42
0
94.1%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete to C.J. Curry, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 13
OWN 42
0
94.1%
Jesse Hosket pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 13
OWN 42
0
94.2%
Alex Knight punt blocked by Tony Pollard blocked by Tony PollardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
94.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 6 yds to the SEMo 28Similar
Q1 8:46
2ND & 4
OPP 28
-3
94.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 3 yards to the SEMo 31Similar
Q1 8:46
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
94.0%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Roper Garrett return for no gain to the SEMo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
93.7%
Will Young run for 9 yds to the SEMo 40Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
93.6%
Will Young run for 2 yds to the SEMo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
93.7%
Will Young run for a loss of 6 yards to the SEMo 36Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 16
OWN 36
-5
93.8%
SE MISSOURI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SEMo 31Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 21
OWN 31
+3
93.8%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 3 yds to the SEMo 34Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 18
OWN 34
+5
93.9%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive offside (Genard Avery) to the SEMo 39Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 13
OWN 39
-6
93.8%
Jesse Hosket sacked by DeMarco Montgomery for a loss of 6 yards to the SEMo 33Similar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 19
OWN 33
+8
93.9%
Alex Knight punt for 48 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 8 yds to the Memph 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:5893% → 94%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
93.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 12 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
93.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 16 yds to the SEMo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+21
93.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Phil Mayhue for 21 yds to the SEMo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
93.4%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to MAYHUE, Phil, PENALTY SEMO pass interference (HOLLOWAY, J.) 10 yards to the SEMO14, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
93.4%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 11 yds to the SEMo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
93.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the SEMo 3Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 8INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Dante Vandeven pass incomplete to Tremane McCulloughSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Dante Vandeven pass incomplete to Tremane McCulloughSimilar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
93.3%
Dante Vandeven pass intercepted Arthur Maulet return for 18 yds to the SEMo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 0:4194% → 96%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
94.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
94.4%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Joshua Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMo 13Similar
Q1 0:40
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+13
96.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:364% → 4%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
96.0%
Will Young run for 1 yd to the SEMo 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+2
96.1%
Will Young run for 2 yds to the SEMo 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+4
96.1%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tyler McLemore for 4 yds to the SEMo 29Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
96.1%
Alex Knight punt for 45 yds, downed at the Memph 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 96%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
96.6%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Michael Ford for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 18
OWN 18
0
96.5%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel Hurd, broken up by Anthony CheatumSimilar
Q2 13:38
3RD & 18
OWN 18
+9
96.5%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 9 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q2 13:38
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
96.4%
Spencer Smith punt for 49 yds, downed at the SEMo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
96.3%
Tremane McCullough run for 2 yds to the SEMo 26Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-4
96.3%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for a loss of 4 yards to the SEMo 22Similar
Q2 12:03
3RD & 12
OWN 22
+2
96.4%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Chase Abbington for 2 yds to the SEMo 24Similar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
96.4%
Alex Knight punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Anthony Miller at the Memph 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0697% → 99%
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
97.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 1 yd to the Memph 30Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+10
97.0%
Doroland Dorceus run for 10 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
97.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 20 yds to the MEMPHIS 40 for a 1ST down SE MISSOURI Penalty, personal foul (Joshua Wilson) to the SEMo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
97.1%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the SEMo 23Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
97.1%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+23
98.6%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 23 yds for a TD SE MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Jake Elliott KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
98.7%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 14 yds to the SEMo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-6
98.7%
Jesse Hosket sacked by Michael Edwards for a loss of 6 yards to the SEMo 33Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+5
98.8%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Kristian Wilkerson for 5 yds to the SEMo 38Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 11
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete to C.J. CurrySimilar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 11
OWN 38
0
98.7%
Alex Knight punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+13
98.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 13 yds to the Memph 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
98.8%
Riley Ferguson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 31 Riley Ferguson fumbled, recovered by SEMo Fletcher EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 16FG
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:292% → 2%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+21
98.5%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Kristian Wilkerson for 21 yds to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.6%
Chase Abbington run for no gain to the Memph 10Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.6%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete, broken up by Dontrell NelsonSimilar
Q2 5:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.7%
Jesse Hosket pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+26
98.0%
Ryan McCrum 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:4298% → 99%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
98.2%
Riley Ferguson sacked by Chad Meredith for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 40Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+9
98.1%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Mechane Slade for 9 yds to the Memph 49Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+6
98.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Montiel for 6 yds to the SEMo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
98.2%
FERGUSON, Riley pass incomplete to SLADE, Mechane, PENALTY SEMO pass interference (FORD, Mike) 15 yards to the SEMO30, 1ST DOWN MEMPHIS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the SEMo 30Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
98.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the SEMo 27Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+7
98.6%
Riley Ferguson pass intercepted Michael Ford return for 7 yds to the SEMo 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:421% → 1%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
98.7%
Will Young run for 6 yds to the SEMo 17Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+5
98.8%
Will Young run for 5 yds to the SEMo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
99.0%
Will Young run for 17 yds to the SEMo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.0%
Will Young run for 1 yd to the SEMo 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
99.0%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 10 yds to the SEMo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
98.9%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete to Tremane McCullough, broken up by Genard AverySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
98.9%
Will Young run for no gain to the SEMo 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete to Kristian Wilkerson, broken up by Jonathan CookSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.0%
Alex Knight punt for 56 yds, downed at the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
99.0%
Tony Pollard run for 3 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+4
99.0%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 4 yds to the Memph 15Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 15
+1
98.9%
Riley Ferguson run for 1 yd to the Memph 16Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 2
OWN 16
0
98.8%
Spencer Smith punt for 60 yds , Tremane McCullough returns for no gain to the SEMo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 21TD
2 plays · 76 yds · 0:431% → 5%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
99.0%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 15 yds to the SEMo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
95.5%
Will Young run for 61 yds for a TD, (Ryan McCrum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
97.3%
Doroland Dorceus run for no gain to the Memph 30Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+2
97.2%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+26
97.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 11 yds to the SEMo 43 for a 1ST down SE MISSOURI Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the SEMo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
97.4%
Doroland Dorceus run for a loss of 2 yards to the SEMo 44Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 12
OPP 44
0
97.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Mechane SladeSimilar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+1
97.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 1 yd to the SEMo 43Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 11
OPP 43
0
97.1%
Nick Jacobs punt for 27 yds, downed at the SEMo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
96.1%
Chase Abbington run for 2 yds to the SEMo 18Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+3
96.1%
Jesse Hosket run for 3 yds to the SEMo 21Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+8
96.2%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 8 yds to the SEMo 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
95.9%
Chase Abbington run for no gain to the SEMo 29Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-10
96.1%
HOSKET, Jesse pass complete to ABBINGTON, C. for loss of 1 yard to the SEMO28 (HALL, Austin), PENALTY SEMO illegal block (BAKER, Garret) 10 yards to the SEMO19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 20
OWN 19
0
96.2%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Chase Abbington for no gain to the SEMo 19Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 20
OWN 19
0
96.2%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete to Kristian Wilkerson, broken up by Arthur MauletSimilar
Q3 7:21
4TH & 20
OWN 19
+4
96.2%
Alex Knight punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 38 , John Williams returns for 4 yds to the Memph 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24FG
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:2198% → 99%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
97.7%
SE MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 5
OWN 43
+4
97.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Daniel Hurd for 4 yds to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
97.8%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 47Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+11
97.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 11 yds to the SEMo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
97.8%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Mechane Slade for 4 yds to the SEMo 38Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
97.8%
Doroland Dorceus run for 2 yds to the SEMo 36Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+8
97.7%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Mechane Slade for 8 yds to the SEMo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
97.8%
Riley Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
98.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for no gain to the SEMo 28Similar
Q3 0:49
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
98.2%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Anthony MillerSimilar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
99.0%
Jake Elliott 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-4
98.9%
Tremane McCullough run for a loss of 4 yards to the SEMo 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 8
+8
99.0%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 8 yds to the SEMo 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 16
0
99.0%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete to Kristian WilkersonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 16
+8
99.0%
Alex Knight punt for 56 yds , Anthony Miller returns for 8 yds to the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 2:3199% → 100%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
99.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the Memph 41 MEMPHIS Penalty, personal foul (Daniel Montiel) to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+14
99.2%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Anthony Miller for 14 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+13
99.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 13 yds to the SEMo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
99.3%
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Tony Pollard for 11 yds to the SEMo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
99.3%
Tony Pollard run for 2 yds to the SEMo 34Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+11
99.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the SEMo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.4%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Mechane SladeSimilar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel HurdSimilar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
99.3%
Riley Ferguson pass incomplete to Daniel Montiel, broken up by Jj FlyeSimilar
Q4 10:41
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
99.7%
Jake Elliott 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SEMODrive 27TD
19 plays · 82 yds · 7:080% → 1%
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
99.8%
SE MISSOURI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SEMo 13Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+15
99.8%
HOSKET, Jesse pass incomplete to McCULLOUGH, T., PENALTY MEMPHIS pass interference (COOK, Jonathan) 15 yards to the SEMO28, 1ST DOWN SEMO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.8%
MEMPHIS Penalty, Defensive offside (Donald Pennington) to the SEMo 33Similar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 5
OWN 33
+10
99.8%
Will Young run for 10 yds to the SEMo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Will Young run for no gain to the SEMo 43Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Jesse Hosket pass incomplete to C.J. CurrySimilar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+12
99.8%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to C.J. Curry for 12 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.8%
Will Young run for 5 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+6
99.7%
Jesse Hosket run for 6 yds to the Memph 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.7%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Tremane McCullough for 8 yds to the Memph 26Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+4
99.6%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Kristian Wilkerson for 4 yds to the Memph 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
99.7%
Will Young run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+12
99.8%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Kristian Wilkerson for 12 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 13
+2
99.7%
Will Young run for 2 yds to the Memph 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-3
99.7%
Chase Abbington run for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 13
OPP 14
+6
99.8%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Kristian Wilkerson for 6 yds to the Memph 8Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
99.3%
Jesse Hosket pass complete to Adrian Davis for 8 yds for a TD, (Ryan McCrum KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28END OF GAME
7 plays · 63 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+51
99.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 51 yds to the SEMo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+12
99.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 12 yds to the SEMo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
99.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the SEMo 4Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
99.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SEMo 5Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-7
99.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the SEMo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:13
Will Young run for 61 yds for a TD, (Ryan McCrum KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q1 0:40
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Doroland Dorceus for 13 yds for a TD, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 7:45
Riley Ferguson pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 23 yds for a TD SE MISSOURI Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined, (Jake Elliott KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com