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Oklahoma 23 at Houston 33

HOU
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · NRG Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadOU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:53 · Austin Seibert punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Steven Dunbar at the Houst 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 49Pregame prior−20.5Home team on offense−1.8Garbage-time factor−0.1Score differential−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:12: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +4.8 pts (now 38%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:37: Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 64 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK) — OU win probability +6.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Ty Cummings 47 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +10.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:28: Austin Seibert 53 yd FG RETURNED , Brandon Wilson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +19.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: OU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:15: Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK) — HOU win probability +13.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7OU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 8:13HOU 4th & 6 at OU 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−1.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:12OU 4th & 3 at HOU 8, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%−0.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−2.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:56HOU 4th & 9 at OU 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−3.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:53OU 4th & 4 at OU 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:33HOU 4th & 14 at OU 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.4%−5.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:32OU 4th & 3 at OU 43, up 1
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:58HOU 4th & 16 at HOU 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.3%−3.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:28OU 4th & 18 at HOU 36, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−2.2
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.6%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:59HOU 4th & 6 at midfield, up 16
    Close callPunted · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:42OU 4th & 5 at OU 25, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:33HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 43, up 16
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:49OU 4th & 7 at OU 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:34HOU 4th & 14 at HOU 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−1.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:36OU 4th & 16 at OU 44, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.6%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3OU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:43OU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:12HOU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:37OU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:28HOU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:15HOU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:05OU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 3:1277% → 76%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
23.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 4 yds to the Okla 25Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+9
23.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 9 yds to the Okla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
24.0%
Baker Mayfield run for 7 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+15
24.1%
Samaje Perine run for 15 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
24.3%
Samaje Perine run for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 12:21
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+5
24.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 5 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 12:09
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+3
24.6%
Samaje Perine run for 3 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
23.8%
Joe Mixon run for 32 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2FG
12 plays · 71 yds · 3:1524% → 26%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+19
24.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 19 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
24.3%
Duke Catalon run for 21 yds to the Okla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
24.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
24.6%
Duke Catalon run for 11 yds to the Okla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
24.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+1
24.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 1 yd to the Okla 37Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 9
OPP 37
+15
24.8%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Dunbar, Steven, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Austin, Dakota) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
25.1%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Okla 22Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
25.3%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Okla 19Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+1
25.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Okla 18Similar
Q1 8:13
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
26.2%
Ty Cummings 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 3FG
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:4974% → 75%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
25.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 60 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
25.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 5 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+1
25.3%
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+1
25.8%
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd to the Houst 8Similar
Q1 6:12
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
24.6%
Austin Seibert 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4FG
17 plays · 84 yds · 6:0025% → 29%
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
25.1%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 6Similar
Q1 5:18
2ND & 11
OWN 6
+15
25.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 15 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
25.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 3 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
25.5%
Duke Catalon run for 4 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+15
25.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 15 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
26.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Steven Dunbar) to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
25.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q1 3:42
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+16
25.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 16 yds to the Okla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
26.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Okla 47Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+6
26.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 6 yds to the Okla 41Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+32
26.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 32 yds to the Okla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
27.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Josh Jones) to the Okla 14Similar
Q1 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
27.5%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the Okla 9Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
27.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
27.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Okla 9Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
29.3%
Ty Cummings 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:5171% → 70%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 9 yds to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 14:04
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
28.4%
Daniel Brooks run for no gain to the Okla 34Similar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
28.9%
Joe Mixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 31Similar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
29.8%
Austin Seibert punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Steven Dunbar at the Houst 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3429% → 38%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.4%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
29.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 12:25
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+19
28.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 19 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
31.1%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 46
-15
31.3%
Ward Jr., Greg pass complete to Bonner, Linell for 2 yards to the HOUSTON48, PENALTY HOUSTON illegal block (Noble, Will) 15 yards to the HOUSTON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 23
OWN 31
+44
29.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Isaiah Johnson for 44 yds to the Okla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
32.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 10 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
37.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for 15 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:1364% → 70%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
35.7%
Joe Mixon run for 7 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
34.8%
Joe Mixon run for no gain to the Okla 32Similar
Q2 9:09
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
36.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 4 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
29.7%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 64 yds for a TD, (Austin Seibert KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 3:5531% → 34%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
30.7%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
30.2%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
29.6%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 11 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
32.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 8 yds to the Okla 48 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Personal Foul (Parrish Cobb) to the Okla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
32.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
32.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+25
32.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 25 yds to the Okla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-8
33.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the Okla 20Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 18
OPP 20
+4
33.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 4 yds to the Okla 16Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 14
OPP 16
0
31.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 14
OPP 16
+33
33.6%
Ty Cummings 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5467% → 67%
Q2 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
32.6%
Samaje Perine run for 11 yds to the Okla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
32.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 2 yds to the Okla 38Similar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+4
31.6%
Baker Mayfield run for 4 yds to the Okla 42Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+1
31.7%
Baker Mayfield run for 1 yd to the Okla 43Similar
Q2 2:32
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
33.1%
Austin Seibert punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Steven Dunbar at the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10END OF HALF
13 plays · 63 yds · 2:2435% → 47%
Q2 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
34.6%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 8Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+19
34.6%
Duke Catalon run for 19 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
35.5%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-4
35.2%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 0:38
3RD & 14
OWN 23
+19
34.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 4 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA Penalty, Roughing Passer (Ogbonnia Okoronkwo) to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Duke CatalonSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
36.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Linell BonnerSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+16
35.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 16 yds to the Okla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
39.1%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Na'Ty Rodgers) to the Okla 47Similar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 15
OPP 47
0
37.3%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+18
37.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Linell Bonner for 18 yds to the Okla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+47
47.0%
Ty Cummings 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5744% → 42%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
44.4%
Duke Catalon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 35Similar
Q3 14:22
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+2
44.0%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-7
44.0%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Jordan Wade for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 12:58
4TH & 16
OWN 30
0
42.1%
Dane Roy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jarvis Baxter at the Okla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 12TD
15 plays · 36 yds · 4:2157% → 32%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
43.4%
Mayfield, Baker pass incomplete to Westbrook, Dede, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference (Winchester, Jeremy) 15 yards to the OKLAHOMA43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAHOMA.Similar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
41.2%
Baker Mayfield run for 5 yds to the Okla 48Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 5
OWN 48
-2
41.2%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 2 yards to the Okla 46Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+16
41.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 16 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
40.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 8 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 2
OPP 30
0
38.6%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q3 10:37
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+2
40.1%
Baker Mayfield run for 2 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-6
39.7%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 16
OPP 34
-2
42.1%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 18
OPP 36
0
45.4%
Baker Mayfield pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 18
OPP 36
+100
68.7%
Austin Seibert 53 yd FG RETURNED , Brandon Wilson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
67.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Garrett Davis) to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:4631% → 30%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
69.5%
Joe Mixon run for 2 yds to the Okla 33Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+18
70.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 18 yds Jarvis Baxter fumbled, forced by Matthew Adams, recovered by Houst Howard WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
13 plays · 51 yds · 5:0071% → 92%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
71.3%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
71.2%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+22
70.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Steven Dunbar for 22 yds to the Okla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
75.0%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+2
74.8%
Duke Catalon run for 2 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+9
74.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 9 yds to the Okla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
77.1%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Okla 19Similar
Q3 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
77.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 5 yds to the Okla 14Similar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+5
76.7%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Chance Allen for 5 yds to the Okla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
78.9%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 13Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
78.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 0
OPP 13
+11
78.4%
Ward Jr., Greg pass incomplete to Allen, Chance, PENALTY OKLAHOMA pass interference (Austin, Dakota) 11 yards to the OKLAHOMA2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 2:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 15FUMBLE
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:1613% → 12%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
87.3%
Samaje Perine run for 2 yds to the Okla 27Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
87.8%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 5 yds to the Okla 32Similar
Q3 1:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
87.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Samaje Perine for 15 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
87.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jordan SmallwoodSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
87.9%
Joe Mixon run for 9 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+5
87.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 5 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
87.8%
Dede Westbrook pass incomplete to Dimitri FlowersSimilar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-7
87.9%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Tyus Bowser for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 46 Baker Mayfield fumbled, forced by Tyus Bowser, recovered by Houst Cameron Malveaux , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4193% → 94%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
93.2%
Greg Ward Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
93.8%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Steven DunbarSimilar
Q4 13:29
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+5
94.1%
Duke Catalon run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 6
50
0
94.3%
Dane Roy punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:049% → 8%
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
90.9%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Jarvis Baxter for 9 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 1
OWN 29
-4
90.8%
Samaje Perine run for a loss of 4 yards to the Okla 25Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
92.2%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
92.4%
Austin Seibert punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Steven Dunbar at the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5795% → 95%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
95.2%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 8 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 2
OWN 45
-2
95.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Duke Catalon for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
95.6%
Greg Ward Jr. pass incomplete to Chance AllenSimilar
Q4 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+10
95.4%
Dane Roy punt for 42 yds , Michiah Quick returns for 10 yds to the Okla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:336% → 6%
Q4 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
93.9%
Baker Mayfield run for 3 yds to the Okla 28Similar
Q4 10:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
93.7%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dimitri FlowersSimilar
Q4 9:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
94.1%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Jarvis BaxterSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
94.2%
Austin Seibert punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Steven Dunbar at the Houst 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 2:0696% → 96%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
95.7%
Duke Catalon run for no gain to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
95.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 8:08
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-6
96.1%
Greg Ward Jr. sacked by Ogbonnia Okoronkwo for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+27
96.1%
Dane Roy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jarvis Baxter at the HOUSTON 35 HOUSTON Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Isaiah Johnson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -20 yds · 1:545% → 4%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
50
-10
94.6%
Mayfield, Baker rush for 6 yards to the HOUSTON44, PENALTY OKLAHOMA holding (Ford, Cody) 10 yards to the OKLAHOMA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 20
OWN 40
-3
95.4%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Ed Oliver for a loss of 3 yards to the Okla 37Similar
Q4 6:31
2ND & 23
OWN 37
0
95.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Mark AndrewsSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 23
OWN 37
+7
96.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 7 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 16
OWN 44
-7
96.3%
Baker Mayfield sacked by Steven Taylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 30 Baker Mayfield fumbled, recovered by Okla Joe Mixon , return for 0 yards , return for a loss of 7 yards to the Okla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22FUMBLE
4 plays · 29 yds · 0:5798% → 98%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
97.9%
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to D'Eriq King for 15 yds to the Okla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
97.9%
Duke Catalon run for 3 yds to the Okla 12Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+11
98.2%
Duke Catalon run for 11 yds to the Okla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
98.4%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain Greg Ward Jr. fumbled, recovered by Okla Will JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:553% → 5%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
97.4%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Ahmad Thomas for 9 yds to the Okla 29Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+18
97.3%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Dede Westbrook for 18 yds to the Okla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.3%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+1
97.5%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 1 yd to the Okla 48Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+13
97.6%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Joe Mixon for 13 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
97.2%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Geno Lewis for 14 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
96.8%
Baker Mayfield pass incomplete to Dede WestbrookSimilar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.0%
Baker Mayfield pass complete to Mark Andrews for 25 yds for a TD HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Garrett Davis) declined, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 3 yds · 2:0097% → 97%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
96.6%
Duke Catalon run for 1 yd to the Okla 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
96.8%
Greg Ward Jr. run for 2 yds to the Okla 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
97.0%
Greg Ward Jr. run for no gain to the Okla 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:28
Austin Seibert 53 yd FG RETURNED , Brandon Wilson return for 100 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+19.1
TD · Q3 2:15
Greg Ward Jr. pass complete to Tyler McCloskey for 2 yds for a TD, (Ty Cummings KICK)
+13.4
FG · Q2 0:00
Ty Cummings 47 yd FG GOOD
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com