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TOW

Towson 20 at South Florida 56

USF
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTOW aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTOW score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+0.1USF 99.9%Aidan O'Neill 33 Yd Field GoalAWAY 20 - HOME 49 · Q4 11:24
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:24 · Aidan O'Neill 33 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.0+20.00−20.0−40.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 163Pregame prior+9.4Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+29.9Blowout margin+15.5Garbage-time factor+9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:42: Darius Victor 1 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick) — TOW win probability +3.8 pts (now 15%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 6:56: Marq Scantling 51 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +5.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:04: Rodney Adams 4 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +3.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:21: Darius Victor 8 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick) — TOW win probability +3.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: TOW has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:32: Quinton Flowers 7 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick) — USF win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TOW made the numbers' call on 12 of 15
  1. Q1 13:21TOW 4th & 6 at TOW 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:51TOW 4th & 8 at USF 28, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:24TOW 4th & 12 at USF 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:38TOW 4th & 10 at TOW 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:25USF 4th & 7 at USF 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:15TOW 4th & 18 at TOW 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.3%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00USF 4th & 9 at USF 21, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:08TOW 4th & 2 at USF 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:56TOW 4th & 1 at TOW 39, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.5%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:48TOW 4th & 1 at USF 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.7%−0.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:49TOW 4th & 5 at TOW 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00TOW 4th & 13 at TOW 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−1.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:32TOW 4th & 1 at TOW 37, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00TOW 4th & 9 at TOW 35, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:24TOW 4th & 10 at USF 16, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:24USF 4th & 9 at midfield, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:04TOW 4th & 1 at TOW 19, down 29
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:28TOW 4th & 8 at TOW 44, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:18USF 4th & 17 at USF 8, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TOW made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:21USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:55USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:42TOW Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:56USF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:49USF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:04USF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:21TOW Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:32USF Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:40USF Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:28USF Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3990% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
89.6%
Marlon Mack run for 19 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
89.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
0
89.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+9
89.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 9 yds to the SOUFLA 46 for a 1ST down TOWSON Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
89.6%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the Tows 43Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+43
89.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to - 1t for 43 yds for a TDSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+43
89.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darius Tice for 43 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
89.4%
Darius Victor run for no gain to the Tows 23Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
89.4%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Andre DessenbergSimilar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+4
89.4%
Morgan Mahalak run for 4 yds to the Tows 27Similar
Q1 13:21
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+11
89.4%
Jake Ryder punt for 68 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 11 yds to the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
89.2%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 8
OWN 18
-5
89.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+1
89.2%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Justice Pettus-Dixon return for 1 yd to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 4FG
11 plays · 29 yds · 4:2711% → 12%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
88.9%
Darius Victor run for 5 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+6
88.9%
Darius Victor run for 6 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
88.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Romeo Harris for 1 yd to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
88.8%
Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
88.9%
Morgan Mahalak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+18
89.0%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Andre Dessenberg for 18 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
88.8%
Darius Victor run for 2 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-4
88.1%
Darius Victor run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
0
88.3%
Morgan Mahalak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
87.9%
Aidan O'Neill 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:2988% → 89%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+28
88.2%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marq Scantling for 28 yds to the Tows 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.3%
Marlon Mack 7 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1711% → 10%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.1%
Morgan Mahalak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
89.1%
Morgan Mahalak pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
89.6%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Romeo HarrisSimilar
Q1 5:38
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
89.6%
Jake Ryder punt for 50 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
89.4%
MACK, Marlon rush for 18 yards to the USF33, out-of-bounds (Fenner, M.), PENALTY USF holding (DILLON, Elkanah) 7 yards to the USF8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+3
89.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+8
89.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+12
89.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 12 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
89.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
89.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
89.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:25
4TH & 7
OWN 34
0
89.3%
Jon Hernandez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Shane Simpson at the Tows 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
89.7%
Darius Victor run for 2 yds to the Tows 32Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-1
89.7%
Morgan Mahalak run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 31Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+12
89.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Andre Dessenberg for 12 yds to the Tows 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
89.5%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Romeo HarrisSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
89.6%
Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the Tows 44Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 9
OWN 44
-9
89.7%
Morgan Mahalak sacked by Nigel Harris for a loss of 9 yards to the Tows 35Similar
Q1 3:15
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
90.0%
Jake Ryder punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1289% → 88%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.8%
TEAM run for no gain to the SFla 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SFlaSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.8%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
88.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
88.4%
Jon Hernandez punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Shane Simpson at the Tows 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 10TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:4011% → 15%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+56
88.9%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Christian Summers for 56 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
89.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal use of hands (Bruce Hector) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.4%
Darius Victor 1 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11FUMBLE
10 plays · 49 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 15 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
86.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+5
86.4%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
50
0
86.5%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Marq ScantlingSimilar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
50
+9
86.4%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the Tows 41Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+8
86.5%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the Tows 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
86.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Marq Scantling for no gain to the Tows 33Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-1
86.8%
Rodney Adams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 34Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+7
86.3%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the Tows 26 Marlon Mack fumbled, forced by Diondre Wallace, recovered by Tows Jordan MynattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:0614% → 15%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
86.0%
Shane Simpson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tows 25Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+6
86.1%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Christian Summers for 6 yds to the Tows 31Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+12
86.1%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Andre Dessenberg for 12 yds to the Tows 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
85.4%
Morgan Mahalak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-4
85.5%
Darius Victor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tows 39Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+12
86.1%
Morgan Mahalak run for 12 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 7:08
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
84.8%
Shane Simpson run for no gain to the SFla 49 Shane Simpson fumbled, forced by TEAM, recovered by SFla Jaymon Thomas , return for no gain to the SFla 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
1 play · 51 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
89.8%
Marq Scantling 51 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 14INT
13 plays · 22 yds · 4:0811% → 10%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
89.2%
Darius Victor run for 2 yds to the Tows 32Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+7
89.1%
Darius Victor run for 7 yds to the Tows 39Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
88.5%
Darius Victor run for no gain to the Tows 39Similar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+3
89.1%
Morgan Mahalak run for 3 yds to the Tows 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
88.8%
Darius Victor run for 2 yds to the Tows 44Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+4
88.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Emmanuel Holder for 4 yds to the Tows 48Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+3
88.5%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Christian Summers for 3 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 2:48
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+1
89.2%
Morgan Mahalak run for 1 yd to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.1%
Morgan Mahalak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
89.5%
Morgan Mahalak pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+49
89.9%
Morgan Mahalak pass intercepted Nigel Harris return for 49 yds to the Tows 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15TD
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
94.0%
Quinton Flowers 5 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Christian Summers, broken up by Daniel AwolekeSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
94.9%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 5 yds to the Tows 36Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
93.7%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Christian SummersSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+3
93.9%
Jake Ryder punt for 31 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17END OF HALF
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
94.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 10 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
94.8%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Diondre Wallace for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
94.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & 17
OWN 39
+8
94.5%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the SFla 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
92.7%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Emmanuel Holder for 12 yds to the Tows 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
92.5%
Victor, D. rush for 9 yards to the USF49 (SAWTELLE, Nico), PENALTY TOWSON holding (Holder, E.) 10 yards to the TOWSON32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+7
93.0%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Tanner Vallely for 7 yds to the Tows 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
93.1%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Shane Simpson, broken up by Kirk LivingstoneSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
93.2%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Christian SummersSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 39
+10
93.2%
Jake Ryder punt for 50 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 10 yds to the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19TD
11 plays · 79 yds · 3:2295% → 99%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+18
94.5%
Darius Tice run for 18 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
94.8%
Darius Tice run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
94.8%
Darius Tice run for 9 yds to the Tows 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
94.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
94.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Tows 44Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+17
94.7%
Rodney Adams run for 17 yds to the Tows 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
94.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
94.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds to the Tows 23Similar
Q3 13:26
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+17
94.7%
Rodney Adams run for 17 yds to the Tows 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
94.8%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the Tows 4Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.6%
Rodney Adams 4 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 20TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:432% → 6%
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
97.9%
Darius Victor run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+10
97.6%
Darius Victor run for 10 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
97.6%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Andre Dessenberg for 8 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+3
97.7%
Darius Victor run for 3 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
97.7%
Darius Victor run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
93.7%
Darius Victor 8 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:4996% → 99%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
95.9%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 35Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+27
95.9%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Elkanah Dillon for 27 yds to the Tows 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
96.1%
FLOWERS, Quint pass incomplete to BRONSON, Ryshen, PENALTY TOWSON pass interference (Pettus-Dixon, J) 15 yards to the TOWSON23, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
96.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 9 yds to the Tows 14Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+7
96.1%
TOWSON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (7 Yards) to the Tows 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.0%
Quinton Flowers 7 Yd Run (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 22FUMBLE
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
98.3%
Darius Victor run for 2 yds to the Tows 30Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+6
98.3%
Darius Victor run for 6 yds to the Tows 36Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+1
98.3%
Darius Victor run for 1 yd to the Tows 37Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+1
98.3%
Morgan Mahalak run for 1 yd to the Tows 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.3%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Sam Gallahan for 7 yds to the Tows 45Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
98.3%
Morgan Mahalak run for 3 yds to the Tows 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.3%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Romeo Harris for no gain to the Tows 48Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+13
98.3%
Morgan Mahalak sacked by Malik Dixon for a loss of 10 yards to the Tows 23 Morgan Mahalak fumbled, recovered by SFla Nate Godwin , return for 0 yards , return for 13 yds to the Tows 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.8%
D'Ernest Johnson 23 Yd pass from Brett Kean (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 24FG
19 plays · 61 yds · 5:160% → 0%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.8%
Darius Victor run for 2 yds to the Tows 25Similar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Shane SimpsonSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+9
99.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Andre Dessenberg for 9 yds to the Tows 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Andre DessenbergSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.8%
Shane Simpson run for 1 yd to the Tows 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
99.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Christian SummersSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+10
99.8%
Emmanuel Holder run for 10 yds to the Tows 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
99.8%
Darius Victor run for 2 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Deadrin Senat) to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Darius VictorSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+5
99.8%
Morgan Mahalak pass complete to Darius Victor for 5 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
99.8%
Morgan Mahalak run for 6 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
99.8%
Darius Victor run for 7 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
99.7%
Morgan Mahalak pass incomplete to Sam GallahanSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+4
99.7%
Ellis Knudson run for 4 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Ellis Knudson pass incomplete to Sam GallahanSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Ellis Knudson pass incomplete to Christian Summers, broken up by Malik DixonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
99.8%
Ellis Knudson pass incomplete to Andre DessenbergSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
99.9%
Aidan O'Neill 33 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
99.9%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+6
99.9%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 9
50
0
99.9%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Deangelo Antoine, broken up by Antwaine CarterSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 9
50
0
99.9%
Jon Hernandez punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Shane Simpson at the Tows 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
99.9%
Grayson Boyce run for 5 yds to the Tows 15Similar
Q4 10:04
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+3
99.9%
Grayson Boyce run for 3 yds to the Tows 18Similar
Q4 10:04
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+1
99.9%
Grayson Boyce run for 1 yd to the Tows 19Similar
Q4 10:04
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+14
99.9%
Jake Ryder punt for 61 yds , Tajee Fullwood returns for 14 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
99.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 3 yds to the Tows 37 for a 1ST down TOWSON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Monty Fenner) to the Tows 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
99.9%
Deangelo Antoine run for 7 yds to the Tows 41Similar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+7
99.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Deangelo Antoine for 7 yds to the Tows 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Chris BarrSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+6
99.9%
Jordan Reed run for 6 yds to the Tows 28Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+5
99.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 5 yds to the Tows 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
99.9%
Brett Kean run for 2 yds to the Tows 21Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+21
99.9%
Mitchell Wilcox 21 Yd pass from Brett Kean (Emilio Nadelman Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
99.9%
Deshaun Wethington run for 12 yds to the Tows 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
99.9%
Deshaun Wethington run for 2 yds to the Tows 44Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Ellis Knudson pass incomplete, broken up by Juwuan BrownSimilar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Ellis Knudson pass incomplete to Christian SummersSimilar
Q4 5:28
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Jake Ryder punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:49100% → 100%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
99.9%
Zaybreion Gunter run for 5 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 5
OWN 20
-2
99.9%
Brett Kean pass complete to Alex Mut for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 7
OWN 18
-10
99.9%
Brett Kean sacked by Eric Handy for a loss of 10 yards to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 17
OWN 8
0
99.9%
Jon Hernandez punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Shane Simpson at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOWDrive 30FUMBLE
4 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
50
+2
100.0%
Deshaun Wethington run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 2:11
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
100.0%
Deshaun Wethington run for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 2:11
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+12
100.0%
Deshaun Wethington run for 12 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Ellis Knudson sacked by N/A for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 40 Ellis Knudson fumbled, recovered by SFla Nico Sawtelle , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 31END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:56
Marq Scantling 51 Yd pass from Quinton Flowers (Emilio Nadelman Kick)
+5.1
TD · Q3 7:21
Darius Victor 8 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick)
-3.9
TD · Q2 13:42
Darius Victor 1 Yd Run (Aidan O'Neill Kick)
-3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com