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UTM

UT Martin 7 at Cincinnati 28

CIN
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · Nippert Stadium
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Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:08 · Brett Arkelian punt for 33 yds, downed at the Cincy 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+45.5+22.80−22.8−45.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+40.6Home team on offense−2.3Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Time remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:19: Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley PAT MISSED) — CIN win probability +6.3 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:29: Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the TnMar 23 — CIN win probability +3.5 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:42: Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to DJ Dowdy for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +12.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:13: Tion Green run for 23 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST down — CIN win probability +4.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:31: Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK) — CIN win probability +4.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 4:08CIN 4th & 7 at UTM 7, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−0.9
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:08UTM 4th & 9 at UTM 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 4:51UTM 4th & 3 at CIN 20, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.1%−0.4
    75% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−4.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 2:58UTM 4th & 14 at CIN 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    22.0%−3.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:58CIN 4th & 1 at UTM 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%−2.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−2.1
    average punt
  6. Q3 14:55CIN 4th & 5 at CIN 28, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:06UTM 4th & 10 at CIN 27, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    18.2%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:22CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 37, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:55UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:29CIN 4th & 6 at UTM 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.8
    47% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:37UTM 4th & 12 at CIN 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%−1.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00CIN 4th & 9 at CIN 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 4UTM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:32UTM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:19CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:42CIN Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    82.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:31CIN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:16CIN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 8:285% → 8%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the TnMar 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
95.3%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Najee Ray for 9 yds to the TnMar 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
95.3%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Jaimiee Bowe for 6 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
95.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 5 yds to the TnMar 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
95.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 9 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 43
-1
95.3%
Ladevin Fair run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+2
95.3%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 2 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
95.3%
Ladevin Fair run for 5 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-3
95.3%
Gunnar Holcombe sacked by Kimoni Fitz for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
95.3%
HOLCOMBE pass incomplete to AXLINE (GILBERT, Tyrell), PENALTY CIN pass interference (GILBERT, Tyrell) 15 yards to the CIN25, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
95.3%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+5
95.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, encroachment (Alex Pace) to the Cincy 17Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 17
0
95.3%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Kyle Kerrick, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 17
+12
95.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 12 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
95.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
95.3%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start (Olandrious Booker) to the Cincy 7Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.2%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 7 yds for a TD, (Mitch Mersman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:2193% → 92%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
92.5%
Tion Green run for 7 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 6:29
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+10
92.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 10 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
2ND & 3
OWN 33
0
92.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Tae MartinSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+47
92.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 47 yds to the TnMar 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
92.9%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 5 yards to the TnMar 15Similar
Q1 6:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
92.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to DJ Dowdy, broken up by Chris Williams-HallSimilar
Q1 6:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+8
92.6%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 8 yds to the TnMar 7Similar
Q1 4:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
91.7%
Josh Pasley 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
91.5%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 4 yds to the TnMar 24Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
91.4%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 2 yds to the TnMar 26Similar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+21
91.4%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 21 yds to the TnMar 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
91.2%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 1 yd to the TnMar 48Similar
Q1 4:08
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Ben AxlineSimilar
Q1 4:08
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
91.2%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Ben Axline, broken up by Chris MurphySimilar
Q1 4:08
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
91.5%
Brett Arkelian punt for 33 yds, downed at the Cincy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
90.1%
Tion Green run for 11 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
90.2%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+6
90.2%
Tion Green run for 6 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
90.4%
Tion Green run for 3 yds to the Cincy 42 Tion Green fumbled, forced by Kahlid Hagens, recovered by TnMar Jay MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5FUMBLE
11 plays · 31 yds · 4:3311% → 13%
Q1 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
88.7%
Ladevin Fair run for 6 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
88.6%
Gunnar Holcombe run for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+23
87.9%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 23 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
87.8%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 4 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+7
87.8%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 7 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
87.8%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
87.8%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start (Robert Burleigh) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+3
87.8%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
86.7%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 11 Jaimiee Bowe fumbled, recovered by Cincy Alex PaceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6INT
7 plays · 30 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
86.9%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the Cincy 13Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+13
86.8%
Mike Boone run for 13 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.1%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+11
86.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 11 yds to the Cincy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
87.2%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
87.6%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Kahlid HagensSimilar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
87.3%
Hayden Moore pass intercepted Joseph Este return for no gain to the TnMar 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7MISSED FG
10 plays · 41 yds · 3:4515% → 18%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
85.4%
Marquez Grayson run for 2 yds to the TnMar 41Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
85.3%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Ben Axline, broken up by Zach EdwardsSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+8
85.5%
Ladevin Fair run for 8 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
85.2%
Ladevin Fair run for 5 yds to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+4
84.8%
Ladevin Fair run for 4 yds to the Cincy 42Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+15
84.8%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 15 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
84.9%
Marquez Grayson run for 7 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 3
OPP 20
0
84.9%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Caylon WeathersSimilar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
85.1%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Ben Axline, broken up by Eric WilsonSimilar
Q2 4:51
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
82.1%
Mitch Mersman 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-8
81.4%
Hayden Moore sacked by Kevin Prather Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 8 Hayden Moore fumbled, recovered by TnMar Anthony Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:4119% → 20%
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
80.9%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.5%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Caylon WeathersSimilar
Q2 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
81.7%
Gunnar Holcombe sacked by Eric Wilson for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 9Similar
Q2 4:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
82.0%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+31
80.5%
Mitch Mersman 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 2:3980% → 86%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
79.6%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
80.0%
Tion Green run for 8 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
80.0%
Tion Green run for 7 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+9
81.2%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 9 yds to the Cincy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
81.2%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 12
OWN 47
0
80.5%
Hayden Moore run for no gain to the Cincy 47Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 12
OWN 47
+11
80.0%
Hayden Moore run for 11 yds to the TnMar 42Similar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
81.0%
Mike Boone run for 2 yds to the TnMar 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
78.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to DJ DowdySimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+16
78.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 16 yds to the TnMar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+21
79.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 21 yds to the TnMar 3 for a 1ST down TENN MARTIN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
82.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the TnMar 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
82.3%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+1
82.2%
Tion Green run for 1 yd to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+3
81.4%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Tion Green for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
81.1%
Sam Geraci punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
78.8%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TnMar 17Similar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
79.3%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 5 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+34
79.2%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 34 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
77.3%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Najee Ray for 8 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+9
77.1%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 9 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
76.5%
Jaimiee Bowe run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+1
76.8%
Ladevin Fair run for 1 yd to the Cincy 27Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
77.7%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 10
OPP 27
-10
79.4%
Gunnar Holcombe sacked by Eric Wilson for a loss of 10 yards to the Cincy 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 76%
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
78.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Kahlil LewisSimilar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
78.2%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
77.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin Gray, broken up by Joseph EsteSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
76.2%
Sam Geraci punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
75.8%
Ladevin Fair run for 2 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+5
75.8%
Ladevin Fair run for 5 yds to the TnMar 35Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 3
OWN 35
-2
75.5%
Ladevin Fair run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 33Similar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
77.3%
Brett Arkelian punt for 42 yds, downed at the Cincy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:1476% → 91%
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.5%
Kahlil Lewis run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
75.1%
Tion Green run for 5 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
74.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
76.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Avery Johnson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
50
+12
78.5%
Hayden Moore run for 12 yds to the TnMar 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
78.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 4 yds to the TnMar 34Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
79.8%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q3 6:56
3RD & 6
OPP 34
0
78.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Avery JohnsonSimilar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 6
OPP 34
+9
75.5%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 9 yds to the TnMar 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
79.0%
Hayden Moore run for 2 yds to the TnMar 23Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+16
79.0%
Mike Boone run for 16 yds to the TnMar 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-10
79.0%
BOONE, Mike rush for no gain to the UTM7 (PRATHER JR.;DAWSON), PENALTY CIN holding (RAY, Idarius) 10 yards to the UTM17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 17
+14
78.8%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 14 yds to the TnMar 3Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to DJ Dowdy for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+38
87.2%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Jaimiee Bowe for 23 yds to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, roughing passer (Cortez Broughton) to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
84.9%
Gunnar Holcombe run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 45Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
85.8%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Jaimiee BoweSimilar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
86.6%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete, broken up by Alex ThomasSimilar
Q3 2:37
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
87.7%
Brett Arkelian punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 1:1690% → 90%
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
90.4%
Tion Green run for 13 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.6%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 15Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
90.5%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Devin GraySimilar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+18
90.0%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Devin Gray for 18 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
90.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Brayden Beard for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 30
0
91.0%
Hayden Moore pass incomplete to Mike BooneSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 30
+4
90.5%
Mike Boone run for 4 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+5
90.3%
Sam Geraci punt for 41 yds , Londell Lee returns for 5 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 19INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
87.0%
Jaylon Moore run for 6 yds to the TnMar 36Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+2
85.8%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 2 yds to the TnMar 38Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+3
85.8%
Ladevin Fair run for 3 yds to the TnMar 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
86.1%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Najee Ray for no gain to the TnMar 41Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-7
86.4%
Gunnar Holcombe pass intercepted Linden Stephens return for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 5:4291% → 98%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+23
91.1%
Tion Green run for 23 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
92.2%
Tion Green run for no gain to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+13
91.9%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Brayden Beard for 13 yds to the TnMar 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
92.5%
Tion Green run for 4 yds to the TnMar 37Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 37
-15
92.6%
BOONE, Mike rush for 1 yard to the UTM36 (MARTIN;WILLIAMS-HALL), PENALTY CIN tripping (RAY, Idarius) 15 yards to the CIN48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 21
OWN 48
+6
91.7%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Sam Geraci for 6 yds to the TnMar 46Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+17
91.3%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 17 yds to the TnMar 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
93.0%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd to the TnMar 28Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-1
93.0%
Mike Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the TnMar 29Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+28
92.1%
Hayden Moore pass complete to Avery Johnson for 26 yds to the TnMar 3 for a 1ST down TENN MARTIN Penalty, personal foul (Kahlid Hagens) to the TnMar 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.0%
Mike Boone run for no gain to the TnMar 1Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.7%
Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 21INT TD
13 plays · 40 yds · 3:093% → 1%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
96.9%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Ben Axline for 6 yds to the TnMar 16Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 4
OWN 16
0
96.9%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incomplete to Ben AxlineSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 4
OWN 16
+8
97.0%
Gunnar Holcombe run for 8 yds to the TnMar 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
97.7%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Jaimiee Bowe for 8 yds to the TnMar 32Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 2
OWN 32
0
97.5%
Gunnar Holcombe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+3
97.5%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 3 yds to the TnMar 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
97.6%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Caylon Weathers for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
50
-15
97.4%
TENN MARTIN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the TnMar 35Similar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
97.6%
Ladevin Fair run for a loss of 5 yards to the TnMar 30Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+20
97.7%
Gunnar Holcombe pass complete to Ben Axline for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
50
+58
99.5%
Gunnar Holcombe pass intercepted for a TD Tyrell Gilbert return for 58 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 22END OF GAME
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
99.6%
Ladevin Fair run for 4 yds to the TnMar 12Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+6
99.6%
Ladevin Fair run for 6 yds to the TnMar 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
99.6%
Ladevin Fair run for 1 yd to the TnMar 19Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-10
99.6%
GRAYSON rush for no gain to the UTM19 (JACOBS, Carter), PENALTY UTM illegal block (BOND) 10 yards to the UTM9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:09
2ND & 19
OWN 9
+13
99.6%
Marquez Grayson run for 13 yds to the TnMar 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:42
Hayden Moore pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Hayden Moore pass to DJ Dowdy for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.3
TD · Q2 0:19
Hayden Moore pass complete to Nate Cole for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Pasley PAT MISSED)
+6.3
TD · Q4 5:31
Mike Boone run for 1 yd for a TD, (Josh Pasley KICK)
+4.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com