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UVA

Virginia 10 at Virginia Tech 52

VT
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGFGFUMBLETDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:35 · Nicholas Conte punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.0+19.50−19.5−39.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Pregame prior+5.3Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+30.9Blowout margin+18.0Garbage-time factor+8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:54: Sam Rogers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +2.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:40: Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 39 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +3.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:06: Sam Rogers run for 32 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +4.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:45: Jerod Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +2.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 13:22: Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 42 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +0.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:22VT 4th & 10 at UVA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:46UVA 4th & 5 at VT 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:06VT 4th & 9 at VT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:51UVA 4th & 13 at UVA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:07UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52UVA 4th & 16 at VT 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:12UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 33, down 14
    Close callPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:55UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:45VT 4th & 1 at UVA 1, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    94.1%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:35VT 4th & 11 at UVA 28, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−0.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:40UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 24, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:27VT 4th & 7 at UVA 7, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:19UVA 4th & 11 at VT 11, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:52UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 43, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 4 at VT 46, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:15VT 4th & 2 at VT 24, up 49
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:53UVA 4th & 1 at VT 41, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:29VT 4th & 5 at VT 45, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:35UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 24, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 2:54VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:40VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:06VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:45VT Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:22VT Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:37VT Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:29UVA Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:3889% → 88%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 10 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
88.9%
Sam Rogers run for 9 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+8
88.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 8 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
88.9%
Steven Peoples run for 3 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
88.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q1 13:22
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-3
88.5%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 13:22
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
88.4%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 30 yds, downed at the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:5312% → 13%
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
88.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 21 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
88.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 4 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+11
87.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
87.8%
Joe Reed run for no gain to the VTech 46Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
87.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
87.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon FacysonSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
87.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:3187% → 86%
Q1 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
87.4%
Sam Rogers run for no gain to the VTech 20Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
87.3%
Cam Phillips run for 4 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+14
86.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 14 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
87.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+3
87.1%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
87.1%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
86.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 7:06
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-4
86.8%
Jerod Evans sacked by Landan Word for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 7:06
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
86.4%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4114% → 14%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
86.3%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
86.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 8
OWN 10
-5
86.2%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Ken Ekanem for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 5Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 13
OWN 5
+17
86.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 45 yds , C.J. Carroll returns for 17 yds to the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:1587% → 88%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
86.5%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 4
OPP 27
+6
86.5%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the Virg 21 Steven Peoples fumbled, forced by Micah Kiser, recovered by VTech Steven Peoples for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
86.5%
Jerod Evans run for 3 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 7
OPP 18
0
86.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+10
85.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
87.9%
Sam Rogers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:4713% → 13%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
87.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
86.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Joe ReedSimilar
Q1 2:07
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
86.8%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FUMBLE
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
87.1%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+2
87.2%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q1 1:57
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+4
86.9%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
87.1%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 38 Travon McMillian fumbled, forced by Zach Bradshaw, recovered by Virg Quin BlandingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:2914% → 13%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
85.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 44 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Virg Matt JohnsSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 16
OPP 44
0
86.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 16
OPP 44
0
86.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 16
OPP 44
+43
86.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 43 yds, downed at the VTech 1 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 3:5587% → 91%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
86.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds to the VTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
86.7%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 14Similar
Q2 14:35
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+7
86.6%
Jerod Evans run for 7 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q2 14:35
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+19
86.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 19 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+19
86.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 19 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
87.0%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
87.1%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the VTech 45Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
86.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 8 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
87.0%
Jerod Evans run for 8 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 10:47
2ND & 2
OPP 39
0
86.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+39
90.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 39 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2810% → 10%
Q2 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
89.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 10:40
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
89.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 9 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
89.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 2
OWN 33
+7
90.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 43 yds , Cam Phillips returns for 7 yds to the VTech 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:5591% → 96%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
90.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+4
91.0%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
90.6%
Sam Rogers run for 4 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+5
90.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (Andrew Brown) to the Virg 47Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+13
90.8%
Jerod Evans run for 13 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 2 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+32
95.6%
Sam Rogers run for 32 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:116% → 5%
Q2 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
94.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
94.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
94.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to David Eldridge for 7 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 6:55
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
94.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:4196% → 98%
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
95.8%
Sam Rogers run for 9 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+12
96.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+11
96.0%
Jerod Evans run for 11 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Micah KiserSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+29
96.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 29 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
96.3%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
96.4%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q2 3:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
96.4%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 2:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.4%
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14INT
8 plays · 42 yds · 1:221% → 1%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
98.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Matt Johns pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+4
98.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+28
99.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 28 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
98.9%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Adonis Alexander return for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:3799% → 99%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+30
99.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 30 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
99.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
99.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
99.1%
Joey Slye 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
99.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:202% → 1%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.5%
Matt Johns run for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-2
98.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 13:40
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+15
99.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 33 yds , Cam Phillips returns for 15 yds to the Virg 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 42 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Andrew Motuapuaka return for no gain to the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FG
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1799% → 100%
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
99.4%
Sam Rogers run for 12 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+16
99.4%
Sam Rogers run for 7 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Juan Thornhill) to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.4%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the Virg 7Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 11:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
99.4%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 11:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
99.5%
Joey Slye 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:081% → 0%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
99.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Andrew Motuapuaka) to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
99.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+9
99.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 9 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to David Eldridge for 8 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+18
99.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 18 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
99.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+10
99.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the VTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
99.4%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 11Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Brandon FacysonSimilar
Q3 7:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+29
99.6%
Sam Hayward 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:180% → 0%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
99.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete, broken up by Vinny MihotaSimilar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+70
99.7%
Connor Brewer run for a loss of 2 yards Connor Brewer fumbled, forced by Mook Reynolds, recovered by VTech Andrew Motuapuaka , return for 70 yds, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 1:520% → 0%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+10
99.7%
Kurt Benkert at QB for Virginia, Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre Levrone, PENALTY VT HD (Mook Reynolds) 10 yards to the VA23, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY, clock 06:44.Similar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 5
OWN 28
+14
99.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Brandon FacysonSimilar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
99.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 4:52
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:52
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
99.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 31 yds, downed at the VTech 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.7%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Sean Daniel for 6 yds to the VTech 32Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+10
99.7%
Sean Daniel run for 10 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Henri MurphySimilar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
99.7%
Travon McMillian run for 17 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
99.8%
Brenden Motley run for 10 yds to the Virg 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
99.8%
Brenden Motley pass complete to Travon McMillian for 31 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:370% → 0%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to David Eldridge, broken up by Adonis AlexanderSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+12
99.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 12 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
99.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 8
50
+2
99.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+2
99.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:55100% → 100%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+5
99.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (Andrew Brown) to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-10
99.9%
Travon McMillian rush up middle for 6 yards to the VT29 (Landan Word), PENALTY VT holding (Tyrell Smith) 10 yards to the VT13, NO PLAY, clock 13:15.Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the VTech 15Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+9
99.9%
Brenden Motley run for 9 yds to the VTech 24Similar
Q4 13:15
4TH & 2
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 26 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:010% → 0%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
50
+9
99.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 10:53
2ND & 1
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
99.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 10:53
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
99.9%
Daniel Hamm run for 2 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 39 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
D.J. Reid run for 4 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 9:29
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
99.9%
D.J. Reid run for 3 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 9:29
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-2
99.9%
Brenden Motley run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 9:29
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:470% → 0%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 19Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
Kurt Benkert run for 5 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Cam Phillips at the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31END OF GAME
9 plays · 59 yds · 2:49100% → 100%
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
99.9%
D.J. Reid run for 18 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
D.J. Reid run for 2 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
99.9%
D.J. Reid run for 4 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+13
100.0%
Brenden Motley run for 13 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
100.0%
D.J. Reid run for 13 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
100.0%
D.J. Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
100.0%
D.J. Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+4
100.0%
D.J. Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:06
Sam Rogers run for 32 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q2 10:40
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 39 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q1 2:54
Sam Rogers run for 8 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com