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DUKE

Duke 21 at Miami 40

MIA
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:47 · Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 32Pregame prior+30.5Home team on offense−0.3Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:47: Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +2.8 pts (now 19%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:54: Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 13 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +3.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:38: Michael Badgley 33 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +3.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:30: Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 76 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +12.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:35: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +7.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 11:32MIA 4th & 10 at DUKE 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:47MIA 4th & 1 at DUKE 32, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.1%−0.5
    51% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:42MIA 4th & 4 at DUKE 8, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    70.2%−4.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:42DUKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:28MIA 4th & 15 at MIA 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 3:10DUKE 4th & 10 at MIA 35, up 1
    Close callWent for it · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%
    45% to make
    Punt
    28.6%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:38MIA 4th & 5 at DUKE 16, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    65.8%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00DUKE 4th & 15 at DUKE 40, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−2.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:51MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 23, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−2.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:28DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 41, down 2
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.1%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:30DUKE 4th & 6 at MIA 22, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−7.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:35DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:07MIA 4th & 10 at DUKE 26, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    92.2%−2.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:44MIA 4th & 7 at midfield, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:29DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 24, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:47DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:00MIA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:54DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:30MIA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:35MIA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:54MIA Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:41DUKE Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 3:2884% → 84%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
84.4%
Mark Walton run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
84.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 10 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
84.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
50
-2
84.4%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+22
84.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 22 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
84.4%
Mark Walton run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
84.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
84.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Alex Gall) to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
84.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
83.6%
Michael Badgley 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4516% → 19%
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
83.6%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
83.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+16
83.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 16 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
83.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 26 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
83.4%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+7
83.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 7 yds to the MiaFl 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
83.4%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 2Similar
Q1 11:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
83.4%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 0
OPP 1
0
83.5%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Lloyd, J, QB hurry by Quarterman,S., PENALTY UM OFF (Jackson,D.) 0 yards to the UM1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 0
OPP 1
-5
83.5%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Daniel Helm) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
80.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:4781% → 82%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
81.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 9 yds to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+7
81.4%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
81.5%
Mark Walton run for 15 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
81.6%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
81.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
81.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 9 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+2
81.3%
Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
81.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
82.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 30 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
9 plays · 84 yds · 3:0618% → 23%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
81.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 4 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+49
81.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 49 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
80.6%
Quay Mann run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+3
80.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 4
OPP 0
+15
80.8%
Jones, D pass complete to Young, A for 14 yards to the UM11, out-of-bounds, PENALTY DU illegal motion 5 yards to the UM30, NO PLAY, PENALTY UM personal foul (Johnson,Ja.) 15 yards to the UM15, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.5%
Quay Mann run for no gain to the MiaFl 15Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
80.5%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
76.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 13 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
13 plays · 69 yds · 4:1278% → 78%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
77.6%
Gus Edwards run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
77.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 7 yds Ahmmon Richards fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+5
78.6%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
78.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 7 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
78.9%
Gus Edwards run for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
78.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+10
79.2%
Kaaya,B. pass incomplete to Coley,S., PENALTY DU pass interference (Gilbert, M) 10 yards to the DU25, 1ST DOWN UM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
79.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 11 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
79.2%
Gus Edwards run for 2 yds to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
79.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy Coley, broken up by Mark GilbertSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+4
78.7%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the Duke 8Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
77.6%
Michael Badgley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
76.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
75.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
75.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 7
OWN 43
-7
75.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
77.1%
Danny Stirt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
76.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 11
OWN 29
-4
75.9%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 15
OWN 25
0
75.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 15
OWN 25
+58
74.8%
Justin Vogel punt for 58 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8DOWNS
14 plays · 42 yds · 3:4327% → 28%
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
73.1%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-1
73.1%
T.J. Rahming run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+15
73.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 15 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
72.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+11
71.7%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
50
+4
71.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
71.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+5
71.7%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Rahming, T.J., PENALTY UM illegal participation 5 yards to the UM41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+6
71.3%
Quay Mann run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
70.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
70.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Gerald WillisSimilar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
71.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:10
4TH & 10
OPP 35
-7
71.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 7 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:2875% → 77%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
75.1%
Mark Walton run for 10 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
75.8%
Walton,M. rush for 8 yards to the DU40 (Humphreys, B;Giles-Harris, J), PENALTY DU OFF (Lucas, T) 5 yards to the DU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 5
OPP 43
0
75.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+22
75.9%
Mark Walton run for 22 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
76.8%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 17
-1
76.8%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+2
73.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 2 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 5
OPP 16
+33
77.2%
Michael Badgley 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 15 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.4%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
75.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 5 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
74.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
73.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Gerald WillisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+4
73.6%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Rahming, T.J. (Elder,C.), PENALTY UM pass interference (Carter Sr.,J.) 4 yards to the DU45, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-10
73.5%
Rahming, T.J. rush for 5 yards to the 50 yardline (Jenkins,R.), PENALTY DU holding (Taylor, C) 10 yards to the DU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 35
+5
75.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 5 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 40
0
75.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider, broken up by Demetrius JacksonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 40
0
75.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
76.6%
Danny Stirt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 12PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
74.9%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q3 11:51
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+3
74.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 11:51
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
73.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 11:51
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
73.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0427% → 28%
Q3 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
73.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 10:32
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
73.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+6
73.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 2
OWN 41
0
72.0%
Danny Stirt punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
1 play · 76 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+76
84.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 76 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:0017% → 16%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
83.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 18 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
81.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+20
82.0%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (RJ McIntosh) to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
81.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+6
79.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
79.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 4 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
79.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 6
OPP 22
0
80.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q3 5:30
4TH & 6
OPP 22
+39
83.9%
AJ Reed 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:5585% → 95%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
84.6%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+33
84.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 33 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+38
86.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 38 yds to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
86.8%
Gus Edwards run for 1 yd to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
91.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 3:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
91.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Corn ElderSimilar
Q3 3:35
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
91.7%
Danny Stirt punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 2:1294% → 97%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
94.4%
Gus Edwards run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+27
94.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 42 yds to the MIAMI 22 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, roughing passer (-15 Yards) to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
94.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-4
94.8%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+4
94.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 0:07
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
97.1%
Michael Badgley 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:075% → 5%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
95.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
95.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun Wilson, broken up by Trent HarrisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
95.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by Courtel JenkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+60
95.5%
Danny Stirt punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MIAMI 23 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (Zach McCloud) to the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 37 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
97.2%
Gus Edwards run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
97.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+10
97.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 10 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
97.3%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Gus EdwardsSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+15
97.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 15 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.6%
Gus Edwards run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 7
50
0
97.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 7
50
0
97.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 7
50
0
97.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+10
96.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 10 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.6%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 10:29
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-6
96.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Kendrick Norton for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 10:29
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+9
96.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 9 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Danny Stirt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22TD
2 plays · 60 yds · 0:5898% → 100%
Q4 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
98.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+58
99.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 58 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 4:130% → 3%
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Michael JacksonSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+25
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 25 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 14 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+22
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 22 yds to the MiaFl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 6 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay MannSimilar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+5
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 5 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-5
99.8%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Zach Harmon) to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 6:54
1ST & 15
OPP 21
+8
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 8 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q4 6:54
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+1
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+12
97.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 12 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
99.0%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
99.0%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+46
99.0%
Malik Rosier run for 46 yds to the Duke 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
99.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:30
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 76 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+12.3
TD · Q3 3:35
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q2 14:54
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 13 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com