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UVA

Virginia 17 at Georgia Tech 31

GT
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:55 · Clinton Lynch run for 11 yds to the Virg 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Pregame prior+0.9Home team on offense+29.6Score differential+13.3Garbage-time factor+15.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+6.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:55: Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +7.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:22: Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 54 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +17.6 pts (now 77%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:33: Qua Searcy run for 60 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +13.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:18: Matt Johns pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +8.8 pts (now 17%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:03: Matt Johns pass intercepted for a TD Lance Austin return for 24 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +8.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UVA made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:24GT 4th & 7 at GT 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:47UVA 4th & 10 at GT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:35GT 4th & 6 at GT 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:09UVA 4th & 6 at GT 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    28.3%−4.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:02GT 4th & 14 at GT 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.8
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:50UVA 4th & 14 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00GT 4th & 4 at midfield, down 3
    Close callPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:23UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 43, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.2%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:20GT 4th & 1 at GT 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.4%−3.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:48UVA 4th & 5 at GT 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−10.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:15UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:49GT 4th & 16 at UVA 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−1.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.8%
    68% to make
    Punt
    84.1%−4.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:18UVA 4th & 1 at GT 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−5.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:18GT 4th & 7 at GT 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:56UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 28, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:55GT 4th & 16 at UVA 33, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.4%−0.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    97.7%
    49% to make
    Punt
    97.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 11:55UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:20GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:22GT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:33GT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:18UVA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.6%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:03GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
77.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 24 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
77.0%
Matt Johns sacked by Patrick Gamble for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+4
77.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 46
+3
77.0%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
77.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
76.4%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 6 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by GTech Isiah WillisSimilar
Q1 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+2
76.3%
Marcus Marshall run for 2 yds to the GTech 8Similar
Q1 12:24
3RD & 7
OWN 8
0
76.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q1 12:24
4TH & 7
OWN 8
+26
76.2%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 54 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 26 yds to the GTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 22 yds · 3:0124% → 25%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
75.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+7
75.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
75.5%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+2
75.5%
Matt Johns run for 2 yds to the GTech 19Similar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
75.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
75.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete, broken up by P.J. DavisSimilar
Q1 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
75.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 14
0
75.6%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 10
OPP 14
+31
74.8%
Sam Hayward 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 3:1275% → 74%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
75.1%
Isiah Willis run for 5 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+3
75.2%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
75.0%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
75.2%
Marcus Marshall run for 2 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
75.2%
Marcus Marshall run for no gain to the GTech 33Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+2
74.4%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 4:35
4TH & 6
OWN 35
0
74.3%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:5126% → 36%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
74.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 21Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
74.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+7
74.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
73.9%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+11
72.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
72.0%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 15 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
71.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+2
71.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+7
71.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 7 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
71.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+6
71.2%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the GTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
71.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the GTech 4Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.7%
Daniel Hamm run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3567% → 73%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
66.7%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 24Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+9
66.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 9 yds to the GTech 33Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
73.3%
Marcus Marshall run for 67 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 6:0628% → 35%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
71.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
70.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
70.8%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
70.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
70.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
70.0%
Albert Reid run for 7 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+14
69.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 14 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
69.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the GTech 29Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+12
69.2%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 12 yds to the GTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
69.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the GTech 13Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
69.1%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
69.7%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 4:09
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+30
64.8%
Sam Hayward 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+20
66.8%
Marcus Marshall run for 20 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-4
68.8%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 4:02
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
66.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to J.J. GreenSimilar
Q2 4:02
3RD & 14
OWN 43
0
66.0%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky Jeune, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 14
OWN 43
+19
65.5%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the GATECH 23 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, kick catching interference (Terrell Lewis) to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 1:3337% → 37%
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
63.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+8
62.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 8 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
61.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the GTech 46Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-5
59.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Eric Smith) to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
61.5%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 15
OWN 49
-5
62.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Doni Dowling) to the Virg 44Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 20
OWN 44
+6
62.7%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 14
50
0
62.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
62.0%
Marcus Marshall run for 2 yds to the GTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 0:0063% → 64%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
62.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Isiah Willis for 19 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
65.3%
Qua Searcy run for 4 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
65.7%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
-1
65.3%
Marcus Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
50
0
63.8%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 48 yds, downed at the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
60.1%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 4Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+4
60.4%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 5
OWN 8
+18
61.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 18 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
59.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 12 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
57.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
58.0%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q3 12:23
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
59.5%
Matt Johns run for 5 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 12:23
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
60.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1658% → 58%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
Q3 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
58.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 5 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
57.2%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q3 7:20
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
57.7%
Matthew Jordan run for no gain to the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14MISSED FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2649% → 45%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
51.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Ryan Santoro, broken up by Lamont SimmonsSimilar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+5
51.5%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
52.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the GTech 24Similar
Q3 5:48
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+42
54.7%
Sam Hayward 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2658% → 77%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
58.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 22 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
62.0%
Thomas, J. pass incomplete (Peace, C), PENALTY GT ineligible downfield on pass (Cooper, K.) 5 yards to the GT42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+4
59.0%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+54
76.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 54 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
74.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+4
74.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 6
OWN 35
0
74.8%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+2
76.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 51 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 2 yds to the GTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 1:3876% → 90%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+18
75.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 18 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
76.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 6 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+60
89.5%
Qua Searcy run for 60 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18INT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
88.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 1:33
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
88.2%
Hasise Dubois pass incomplete to David EldridgeSimilar
Q3 1:33
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+33
89.2%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Corey Griffin return for 33 yds to the Virg 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 19FG
6 plays · -6 yds · 1:4490% → 94%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
90.4%
Justin Thomas run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+6
90.8%
Marcus Marshall run for 6 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 1
OPP 9
-15
90.0%
Lynch, C. rush for 2 yards to the VA7, PENALTY GT clipping (Braun, P.) 15 yards to the VA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 16
OPP 24
0
89.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Qua Searcy, broken up by Chris MooreSimilar
Q4 13:49
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+41
94.4%
Harrison Butker 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:317% → 17%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.3%
Matt Johns pass complete to Brendan Marshall for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+12
92.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Andre Levrone for 12 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
92.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 2 yds to the Virg 44Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+29
92.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 29 yds to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
91.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
92.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 7 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
91.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
91.7%
Matt Johns pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 6 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+7
91.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
91.4%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the GTech 13Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+6
91.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.4%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q4 13:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
91.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the GTech 1Similar
Q4 13:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.2%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the GTech 1Similar
Q4 7:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
89.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 1 yd to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+4
89.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-2
89.4%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 38 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by GTech Isiah WillisSimilar
Q4 7:18
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
88.5%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 60 yds, downed at the Virg 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22INT TD
3 plays · 12 yds · 1:1812% → 3%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
88.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 8Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+6
88.4%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+24
97.2%
Matt Johns pass intercepted for a TD Lance Austin return for 24 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.1%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-3
96.9%
Matt Johns sacked by Francis Kallon for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
97.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 3:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
97.2%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to David Eldridge, broken up by Step DurhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24DOWNS
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:5098% → 99%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
98.2%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 13
OPP 30
-9
98.2%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 39 Justin Thomas fumbled, recovered by GTech Qua SearcySimilar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 22
OPP 39
+5
98.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, offside defense (Andrew Brown) to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+1
98.5%
Qua Searcy run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 16
OPP 33
+11
98.5%
Clinton Lynch run for 11 yds to the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
98.6%
Matt Johns pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the Virg 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
98.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
98.5%
Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+7
98.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
98.3%
Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-6
98.4%
Matt Johns sacked by Kyle Cerge-Henderson for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 49Similar
Q4 1:46
3RD & 16
OWN 49
+16
98.6%
Albert Reid run for 16 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.1%
Matt Johns pass intercepted Brant Mitchell return for 2 yds to the GTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:22
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 54 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+17.6
TD · Q3 1:33
Qua Searcy run for 60 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+13.4
TD · Q4 7:18
Matt Johns pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)
-8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com