Try the model
DUKE

Duke 14 at Pittsburgh 56

PITT
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Acrisure Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:06 · Danny Stirt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Home team on offense+35.9Score differential+30.9Pregame prior+1.4Blowout margin+18.4Garbage-time factor+8.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:33: James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +2.2 pts (now 69%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 14:08: Quadree Henderson run for 52 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +5.9 pts (now 77%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:34: Nathan Peterman pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields return for 36 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +6.3 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:17: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 56 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +8.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 12:04: James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +11.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 7:33DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:13PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:08DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:46PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:49DUKE 4th & 24 at DUKE 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:01DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:01DUKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 35, down 28
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:02PITT 4th & 7 at DUKE 34, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:51DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 10 at PITT 40, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 15 at PITT 34, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:06DUKE 4th & 11 at DUKE 49, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:33PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:11DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:33PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:08PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:34DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:17PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 12:04PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:01PITT Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:06PITT Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
67.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yards to the DU25 (Terrish Webb), PENALTY UP offside defense (Rori Blair) 5 yards to the DU26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+8
67.0%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 17 Shaun Wilson fumbled, forced by Oluwaseun Idowu, recovered by Pitt Matt Galambos , return for 8 yds to the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:5467% → 67%
Q1 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
67.0%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 6
OPP 13
-3
67.0%
James Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+16
67.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 16 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:2233% → 34%
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
67.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
67.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Mann for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+43
67.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 43 yds to the Pitt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
67.1%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Pitt 6Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
66.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 3:3867% → 69%
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
66.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+21
66.8%
James Conner run for 21 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
67.0%
Quadree Henderson run for 9 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 11:11
2ND & 1
OPP 30
0
67.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:11
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+1
67.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
67.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 14 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
67.1%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.3%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
68.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
68.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
68.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
68.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
68.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
68.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
68.6%
Danny Stirt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
69.2%
Quadree Henderson run for 4 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+23
69.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 23 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, broken up by Alonzo Saxton IISimilar
Q1 5:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
69.7%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 5:13
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
69.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q1 5:13
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
68.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 3:0131% → 30%
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
69.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
69.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for no gain to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+9
69.8%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
69.2%
Daniel Jones sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
69.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 3:01
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
69.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Ryan LewisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 34
+22
70.3%
Danny Stirt punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PITTSBURGH 39 DUKE Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
2 plays · 56 yds · 0:4671% → 77%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
71.0%
Darrin Hall run for 4 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+52
76.9%
Quadree Henderson run for 52 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
74.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
74.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 4 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
74.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
74.7%
Danny Stirt punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
77.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Darrin HallSimilar
Q2 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
77.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 1 yd to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 12:46
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
76.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q2 12:46
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+12
76.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 12 yds to the PITTSBURGH 45 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (Alonzo Saxton II) to the Duke 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+17
75.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
75.5%
Daniel Jones sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 8 yards to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+5
75.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+10
76.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, PENALTY UP pass interference (Dane Jackson) 10 yards to the DU35, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
75.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 10 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
75.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+14
75.0%
Daniel Jones run for 14 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
74.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider, broken up by Reggie MitchellSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-15
74.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for no gain to the UP39 (Ryan Lewis), PENALTY DU illegal block (Zach Harmon) 15 yards to the DU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 25
OWN 46
-3
75.7%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 43Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 28
OWN 43
+4
75.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 24
OWN 47
0
76.1%
Danny Stirt punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12INT TD
3 plays · 11 yds · 1:1379% → 73%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
79.0%
Maurice Ffrench run for 8 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
79.3%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+36
73.0%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields return for 36 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1773% → 82%
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
72.9%
Quadree Henderson run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
72.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 6 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+8
72.9%
Nathan Peterman run for 8 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
74.2%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Ben Humphreys for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 15
OWN 36
+8
72.9%
Darrin Hall run for 8 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+56
81.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 56 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14MISSED FG
15 plays · 68 yds · 2:1719% → 20%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
80.6%
Daniel Jones sacked by Saleem Brightwell for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+5
80.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 5 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+5
81.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, PENALTY UP substitution infraction 5 yards to the DU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+11
80.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 11 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
80.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+19
80.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 19 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
81.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 10 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
80.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+20
82.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 20 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+31
79.7%
AJ Reed 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:5684% → 95%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
83.5%
Quadree Henderson rush for 4 yards to the UP33 (Ben Humphreys;A.J. Wolf), PENALTY DU offside defense (Marquies Price) 5 yards to the UP34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+23
83.7%
James Conner run for 23 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
84.2%
James Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 45
+5
84.0%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+39
83.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 39 yds to the Duke 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.7%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:037% → 1%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
93.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+65
98.8%
Danny Stirt punt for 40 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 65 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.7%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 27Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+6
98.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 11:01
3RD & 4
OWN 33
+2
98.6%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 11:01
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
98.6%
Daniel Jones punt for 43 yds, downed at the Pitt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
99.1%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
99.0%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
99.2%
James Conner rush for 13 yards to the 50 yardline (Mark Gilbert), PENALTY UP holding (Alex Officer) 10 yards to the UP27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+10
99.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 10 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 9 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+17
99.1%
James Conner run for 17 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.2%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 9:02
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-1
99.2%
Nathan Peterman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 9:02
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
99.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q3 9:02
4TH & 7
OPP 34
0
99.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 34 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19DOWNS
19 plays · 46 yds · 3:511% → 0%
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.6%
Quay Mann run for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-5
99.5%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Zach Harmon) to the Duke 24Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-5
99.6%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 3:51
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+10
99.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 10 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 3:51
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+3
99.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 3 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.5%
Quay Mann run for 4 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+5
99.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, PENALTY UP offside defense (Shane Roy) 5 yards to the DU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:51
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+9
99.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:51
1ST & 10
50
0
99.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+10
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 10 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-4
99.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Ryan Lewis for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 11 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
99.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-5
99.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Quintin Wirginis for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 34
0
99.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:42100% → 100%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.8%
Maurice Ffrench run for 3 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
99.8%
Quadree Henderson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 1
OWN 43
-5
99.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Brian O'Neill) to the Pitt 38Similar
Q4 11:43
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+12
99.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Darrin Hall for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.8%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+48
99.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 48 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:45100% → 100%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+1
99.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
Manny Stocker run for 8 yds to the Duke 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
99.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 4 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Manny Stocker run for 1 yd to the Duke 8Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
99.9%
Maurice Ffrench run for 6 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 3 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 7 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
99.9%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+15
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor (Dane Jackson), PENALTY UP pass interference (Dane Jackson) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
50
-1
99.9%
Quay Mann run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis Koppenhaver, broken up by Bam BradleySimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
99.9%
Danny Stirt punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 12
OWN 15
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 13Similar
Q4 1:42
3RD & 14
OWN 13
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:04
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+11.1
TD · Q2 2:17
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 56 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+8.8
TD · Q2 5:34
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted for a TD Bryon Fields return for 36 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-6.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com