2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:47 · Andy Teasdall punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:10: Mike Williams 15 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:44: Deshaun Watson 2 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +2.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:31: Cade Carney 1 Yd Run (Mike Weaver Kick) — WAKE win probability +6.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:30: Mike Weaver 23 Yd Field Goal — WAKE win probability +2.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:50: Wayne Gallman 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +2.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 12 of 12CLEM made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
- Q1 12:46WAKE 4th & 3 at WAKE 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snapGo for it8.7%−<0.151% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.7%average punt
- Q1 11:24CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.8%70% to convertField goal90.5%−0.230% to makePunt90.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 8:28WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snapGo for it9.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.6%average punt
- Q1 4:38WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 40, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.5%average punt
- Q1 0:42WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 26, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.230% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.2%average punt
- Q2 10:41WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 32, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snapGo for it4.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.2%average punt
- Q2 10:04WAKE 4th & 7 at CLEM 24, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.136% to convertField goalTheir call4.4%68% to makePunt3.4%−1.1average punt
- Q2 6:18CLEM 4th & 6 at WAKE 36, up 25Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%40% to convertField goal96.6%−0.142% to makePunt96.5%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:47CLEM 4th & 6 at CLEM 22, up 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.1% before the snapGo for it92.7%−0.338% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.0%average punt
- Q2 0:20WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 42, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%average punt
- Q3 11:48CLEM 4th & 8 at WAKE 29, up 18Close callWent for it · 93.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call93.2%−0.234% to convertField goal93.4%58% to makePunt90.9%−2.5average punt
- Q3 9:26WAKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 41, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.0%−0.926% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.9%average punt
- Q3 7:46CLEM 4th & 2 at WAKE 48, up 18Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it94.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.8%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:30WAKE 4th & 5 at CLEM 5, down 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.0% before the snapGo for it7.6%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call7.7%92% to makePunt2.9%−4.7average punt
- Q3 3:39CLEM 4th & 1 at CLEM 34, up 15Close callPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it93.0%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.1%−0.9average punt
- Q3 1:15WAKE 4th & 23 at WAKE 20, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snapGo for it7.0%−2.06% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q4 12:05CLEM 4th & 1 at WAKE 25, up 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.3%71% to convertField goal93.1%−1.266% to makePunt89.8%−4.5average punt
- Q4 7:08WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 33, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.514% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q4 3:53CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 49, up 22Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snapGo for it99.1%37% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 0:34WAKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 25, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 11:24CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:22CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.5%97% to makeGo for two90.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:10CLEM Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.5%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:44CLEM Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.6%97% to makeGo for two95.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:31WAKE Touchdown, down 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call6.6%97% to makeGo for two6.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:50CLEM Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWAKEDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:546% → 6%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2TD4 plays · 51 yds · 1:1394% → 94%
WAKEDrive 3DOWNS11 plays · 18 yds · 2:426% → 7%
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
6.4%
Kyle Kearns pass complete to Chuck Wade for 4 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+5
6.6%
CLEMSON Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (5 Yards) to the WFrst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+8
6.8%
Kyle Kearns pass complete to Cade Carney for 8 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4TD8 plays · 59 yds · 1:5393% → 94%
WAKEDrive 5FUMBLE6 plays · 5 yds · 1:447% → 7%
Q1 4:38
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+2
6.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 30 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 2 yds to the Clem 32 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, recovered by Clem Ray-Ray McCloudSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2293% → 95%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
6.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 2 yds to the Clem 34Similar
Q1 4:05
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
6.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 5 yds to the Clem 39Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+12
6.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 12 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+22
6.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 22 yds to the WFrst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:206% → 6%
Q1 0:42
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+7
5.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 38 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 7 yds to the Clem 43 WAKE FOREST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Clem 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD9 plays · 52 yds · 2:5195% → 95%
Q1 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
5.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 7 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q1 0:03
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
5.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 7 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+3
5.2%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 3 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FUMBLE5 plays · 6 yds · 1:504% → 3%
WAKEDrive 10FG4 plays · 3 yds · 0:244% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11DOWNS10 plays · 39 yds · 3:3497% → 97%
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
3.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 6 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+14
2.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (14 Yards) to the Clem 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
2.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 7 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+6
2.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 6 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD6 plays · 64 yds · 2:383% → 9%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+41
2.8%
Kyle Kearns pass complete to Cam Serigne for 41 yds to the Clem 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3192% → 93%
Q2 2:52
1ST & 19
OWN 9
+4
7.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 4 yds to the Clem 13Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 15
OWN 13
+9
8.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 9 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 6
OWN 22
0
6.6%
Andy Teasdall punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 1:208% → 7%
Q2 1:11
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-10
7.7%
Kyle Kearns sacked by Kendall Joseph for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16DOWNS10 plays · 46 yds · 3:0295% → 95%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
5.3%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the Clem 44Similar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
5.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 17 yds to the WFrst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
5.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 12 yds · 2:156% → 6%
CLEMDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3295% → 95%
WAKEDrive 19FG7 plays · 82 yds · 2:076% → 9%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+51
6.7%
Kyle Kearns pass complete to Chuck Wade for 51 yds to the Clem 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3893% → 93%
Q3 3:39
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
6.9%
Andy Teasdall punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -13 yds · 2:148% → 8%
CLEMDrive 22TD13 plays · 80 yds · 5:1594% → 99%
WAKEDrive 23PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 3:322% → 1%
CLEMDrive 24PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 3:0899% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 3:071% → 1%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:31
Cade Carney 1 Yd Run (Mike Weaver Kick)
+6.1
TD · Q4 10:50
Wayne Gallman 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)
-2.9
TD · Q2 12:44
Deshaun Watson 2 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick)
-2.6