2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:28 · Justin Wain punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BC 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 10:36: Davon Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +4.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:36: Mike Knoll 35 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +3.0 pts (now 80%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:25: Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +12.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 6:10: Jeff Smith run for 5 yds to the BC 25 — BC win probability +2.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
- FG · Q3 2:55: Mike Knoll 24 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +3.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 4 of 9CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 10, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snapGo for it30.7%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call30.8%average punt
- Q1 13:21BC 4th & 5 at CONN 42, tiedClose callPunted · 69.1% before the snapGo for it69.1%42% to convertField goal69.0%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call69.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 11:28CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it31.0%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.2%average punt
- Q1 7:51BC 4th & 12 at CONN 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snapGo for it67.9%−0.223% to convertField goal67.8%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call68.1%average punt
- Q1 3:35CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snapGo for it31.5%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.8%average punt
- Q2 12:40BC 4th & 3 at CONN 23, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call67.3%52% to convertField goal67.1%−0.270% to makePunt65.0%−2.3average punt
- Q2 10:36CONN 4th & 18 at BC 19, down 7Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 27.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call26.1%−1.411% to convertField goal27.5%77% to makePunt23.8%−3.7average punt
- Q2 1:36BC 4th & 4 at CONN 18, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 74.8% before the snapGo for it74.2%47% to convertField goalTheir call74.2%−<0.179% to makePunt69.7%−4.5average punt
- Q3 8:25CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 28, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.4%−1.428% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.8%average punt
- Q3 2:55BC 4th & 4 at CONN 6, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snapGo for it93.5%40% to convertField goalTheir call93.2%−0.391% to makePunt88.6%−4.9average punt
- Q3 2:55CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 24, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.828% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.5%average punt
- Q3 1:57BC 4th & 10 at BC 32, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.3%−0.929% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.2%average punt
- Q4 14:41CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 4, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it-0.2%−0.425% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 12:14BC 4th & 9 at CONN 28, up 27Close callWent for it · 99.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.7%−0.131% to convertField goal99.8%60% to makePunt99.1%−0.7average punt
- Q4 7:40BC 4th & 15 at CONN 22, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.216% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%72% to makePunt99.3%−0.6average punt
- Q4 6:22BC 4th & 7 at CONN 13, up 30Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−<0.134% to convertField goal99.9%85% to makePunt99.4%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q2 10:36BC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.2%97% to makeGo for two71.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:25BC Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.7%97% to makeGo for two88.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:41BC Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 10
+11
69.8%
Justin Wain punt for 48 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 11 yds to the UConn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT11 plays · 26 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
69.2%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 7 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
69.2%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UConn 36Similar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+12
69.2%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 12 yds to the UConn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-2
69.1%
Donovan Williams sacked by Wyatt Ray for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:5469% → 68%
Q1 7:51
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+25
68.3%
Patrick Towles run for 10 yds to the UConn 41 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:51
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-3
69.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:4932% → 32%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
68.1%
Donovan Williams run for no gain to the UConn 8 CONNECTICUT Penalty, Offensive holding (-4 Yards) to the UConn 4Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 9
OWN 9
+11
68.5%
Justin Wain punt for 47 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 11 yds to the BC 20 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the BC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD15 plays · 60 yds · 7:0768% → 74%
Q1 2:43
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+8
69.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Myles Willis for 8 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-15
68.7%
Towles,P pass complete to Smith,J for 4 yards to the UCONN18 (McALLISTER, Br.), PENALTY BC pass interference 15 yards to the UCONN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 37
+14
67.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 14 yds to the UConn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7DOWNS9 plays · 56 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 10:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+17
73.9%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 17 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+43
72.5%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Brian Lemelle for 43 yds to the BC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
70.6%
Donovan Williams sacked by Truman Gutapfel for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 12Similar
Q2 10:36
2ND & 11
OPP 12
0
70.9%
Donovan Williams pass incomplete to Noel Thomas, broken up by Isaac YiadomSimilar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 11
OPP 12
-7
71.8%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8FG13 plays · 63 yds · 5:5974% → 80%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
73.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 9 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
74.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 13 yds to the UConn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
75.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 8 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
75.7%
Patrick Towles sacked by Kevin Murphy and Sheriden Lawley for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 29Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
77.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Tommy Sweeney, broken up by Junior JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
BCDrive 10END OF HALF3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 1:22
2ND & 16
OWN 33
+4
79.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 4 yds to the BC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 11TD14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3579% → 92%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
78.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 9 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+12
79.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Korab Idrizi for 12 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+12
79.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 12 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+22
79.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 22 yds to the UConn 9 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
92.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12PUNT8 plays · 3 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.7%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for no gain to the UConn 25Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.0%
WILLIAMS, Don. pass incomplete to THOMAS, Noel (Schwab,T), PENALTY BC pass interference 3 yards to the UCONN28, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+4
90.1%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Arkeel Newsome for 4 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Donovan Williams pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Lukas DenisSimilar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Justin Wain punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 13FG7 plays · 74 yds · 3:1593% → 97%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+54
92.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 54 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 2:55
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
96.9%
Justin Wain punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
CONNDrive 16INT TD2 plays · -9 yds · 0:192% → 0%
CONNDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:41
4TH & 10
OWN 4
+23
99.8%
Justin Wain punt for 48 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 23 yds to the UConn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18FG11 plays · 7 yds · 4:34100% → 100%
Q4 12:14
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+11
99.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 11 yds to the UConn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 10
OPP 17
-5
99.8%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UConn 22Similar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
99.9%
Knoll,M kickoff 65 yards to the UCONN0, NEWSOME, Arkeel return to the UCONN21 (McClary,G), PENALTY BC offside 5 yards to the BC30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19FUMBLE5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
99.9%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 10 yds to the UConn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
99.9%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Alec Bloom for 3 yds to the UConn 42Similar
Q4 7:40
3RD & 7
OWN 42
-17
99.9%
Donovan Williams sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 17 yards to the UConn 32 Donovan Williams fumbled, recovered by BC Kamrin Moore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21INT8 plays · 23 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 15
OWN 7
+2
100.0%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 2 yds to the UConn 9Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+9
100.0%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Tommy Myers for 9 yds to the UConn 18Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+7
100.0%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 7 yds to the UConn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
100.0%
WILLIAMS, Don. rush for 14 yards to the UCONN39 (Cohee,K), PENALTY UCONN holding 10 yards to the UCONN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+20
100.0%
Donovan Williams pass complete to Noel Thomas for 20 yds to the UConn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Donovan Williams pass intercepted Taj-Amir Torres return for no gain to the BC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:25
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 10 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+12.2
TD · Q2 10:36
Davon Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+4.3
FG · Q3 2:55
Mike Knoll 24 yd FG GOOD
+3.6