Try the model
WAKE

Wake Forest 12 at Louisville 44

LOU
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:52 · Dom Maggio punt for 26 yds, downed at the WFrst 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 155Pregame prior+8.4Home team on offense+20.7Score differential+7.3Garbage-time factor+4.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.8Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:18: Blanton Creque 28 yd FG GOOD — LOU win probability +2.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:30: Brandon Radcliff run for 55 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +14.7 pts (now 83%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q4 10:35: Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — LOU win probability +14.0 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:36: Brandon Radcliff run for 19 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +9.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:05: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WAKE made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 13:00WAKE 4th & 2 at LOU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.9%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:24WAKE 4th & 15 at LOU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.1%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    2.8%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:58LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:27WAKE 4th & 18 at LOU 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:19LOU 4th & 23 at LOU 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:19WAKE 4th & 7 at LOU 15, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−1.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:49WAKE 4th & 4 at LOU 20, up 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:18LOU 4th & 10 at WAKE 11, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−1.4
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.9%
    87% to make
    Punt
    70.8%−4.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:42WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 47, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:47LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 33, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:13WAKE 4th & 9 at LOU 37, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    35.4%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:41WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.8%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:21LOU 4th & 8 at WAKE 26, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%−0.9
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.4%−8.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:30WAKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−1.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:04LOU 4th & 9 at LOU 39, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:09WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 29, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−2.8
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:18LOU 4th & 4 at WAKE 34, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.7%−2.0
    47% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−5.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:58WAKE 4th & 7 at WAKE 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:52WAKE 4th & 24 at WAKE 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:46WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 25, down 25
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q3 7:30LOU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 10:35LOU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.0%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    81.4%
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:36LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:05LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:44LOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:50LOU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 4 yds Jaylen Smith fumbled, forced by Brad Watson, recovered by WFrst Wendell DunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2FG
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:062% → 3%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
97.7%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+3
97.7%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+3
97.6%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 13:00
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+17
97.5%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Zykiesis Cannon) to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
97.5%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
97.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q1 11:45
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-6
97.3%
John Wolford sacked by DeAngelo Brown and Drew Bailey for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 19Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+37
97.3%
Mike Weaver 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2097% → 97%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
97.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Chris Stewart for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 9:58
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.0%
Mason King punt for 42 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for 6 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4FG
10 plays · 34 yds · 4:233% → 4%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
97.0%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
96.9%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+16
96.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 16 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
96.7%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 7:53
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+10
96.6%
Cade Carney run for 10 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
96.4%
Cade Carney run for 4 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-5
96.3%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Anderson) to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 11
OPP 20
-7
96.2%
John Wolford sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 27Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 18
OPP 27
0
96.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cam SerigneSimilar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+45
95.9%
Mike Weaver 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 1:5196% → 95%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.9%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Marquel Lee for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
95.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 21Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-9
95.4%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 12Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
95.2%
Mason King punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FUMBLE
5 plays · 25 yds · 1:345% → 6%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
95.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt Colburn for 15 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
94.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (Ryan Anderson) to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+1
94.7%
John Wolford run for 1 yd to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+17
94.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 17 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
94.3%
Cade Carney run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 32 Cade Carney fumbled, forced by DeAngelo Brown, recovered by Lvile Keith KelseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7FUMBLE
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:4095% → 95%
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
94.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 7 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 0:54
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+6
94.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
94.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+12
94.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 12 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+17
94.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the WFrst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
94.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 22 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, recovered by WFrst Josh OkonyeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 6:116% → 11%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
93.9%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-1
93.3%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 27Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+25
93.1%
John Wolford run for 25 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
92.4%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+14
92.1%
Matt Colburn run for 14 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
91.5%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
91.3%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+15
91.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Tyler Bell for 15 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
90.3%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 13
OPP 21
+3
90.1%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+3
89.9%
Tyler Bell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 8:19
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
89.4%
Mike Weaver 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:1289% → 89%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
89.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+25
89.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 25 yds to the WFrst 48 Lamar Jackson fumbled, forced by Jessie Bates III, recovered by WFrst Amari HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10FG
11 plays · 32 yds · 4:5312% → 19%
Q2 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
87.8%
Wolford, John rush for 21 yards to the LOUISVILLE31, PENALTY WAKEFOREST holding (Osterhage, Patrick) 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+2
87.9%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 18
OWN 40
+8
87.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 8 yds to the WFrst 48Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+15
86.7%
John Wolford run for 15 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
85.1%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+11
85.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 11 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
83.8%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
83.1%
John Wolford run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 2:53
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
82.7%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+38
81.1%
Mike Weaver 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 2:2281% → 81%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
81.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 20 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
81.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
81.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+15
81.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 15 yds to the WFrst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
81.6%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Willie Yarbary for a loss of 5 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 15
OPP 42
+14
80.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+17
79.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the WFrst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
80.9%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the WFrst 11 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
80.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
78.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
81.2%
Blanton Creque 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
76.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:0422% → 25%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
78.3%
Wolford, John pass incomplete to Lewis, Cortez, PENALTY LOUISVILLE pass interference (Alexander, Jaire) 15 yards to the WAKEFOREST44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
77.1%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 46Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+3
76.1%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q3 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-2
75.7%
John Wolford sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 47Similar
Q3 12:42
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
75.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:4876% → 73%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
75.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 11 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
75.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
74.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+6
73.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+29
72.6%
Mason King punt for 47 yds , Jessie Bates III returns for 29 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 15DOWNS
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2230% → 34%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
70.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 9 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+4
69.2%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
68.8%
Tabari Hines run for a loss of 10 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 20
OPP 48
-1
67.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 21
OPP 49
+12
67.9%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 12 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 9
OPP 37
0
66.3%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty WashingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:3568% → 83%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
67.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+55
82.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 55 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3522% → 23%
Q3 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+10
78.2%
Wolford, John pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding 10 yards to the WAKEFOREST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WAKEFOREST.Similar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
76.8%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
75.7%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 5:51
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
75.1%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Chuck WadeSimilar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+5
77.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 43 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 5 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18MISSED FG
5 plays · 57 yds · 1:0978% → 77%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+55
77.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 55 yds to the WFrst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
81.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+2
79.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 4:21
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
77.2%
Blanton Creque 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4526% → 27%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
73.7%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
73.9%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 31Similar
Q3 3:45
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+11
73.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 11 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
70.5%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 7
OWN 45
-1
70.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 44Similar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
70.5%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Cortez LewisSimilar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
72.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 45 yds, downed at the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:2074% → 70%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
73.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+27
73.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 27 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
74.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 1:16
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
74.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:11
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
72.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 1:04
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
70.4%
Mason King punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates III at the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4633% → 32%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
67.2%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
66.5%
John Wolford run for no gain to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-1
67.2%
John Wolford sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 29Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+6
67.7%
Dom Maggio punt for 42 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 6 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:2570% → 85%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
70.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 7 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-4
72.8%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 38Similar
Q4 13:06
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+22
67.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 22 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
71.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 4 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-11
71.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Willie Yarbary for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 11:39
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+13
65.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the WFrst 34Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+12
66.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 12 yds to the WFrst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
71.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 15 yds to the WFrst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
85.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1723% → 21%
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
77.3%
John Wolford sacked by DeAngelo Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 20
OWN 30
-5
78.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 25
OWN 25
+18
78.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 18 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
76.4%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
78.9%
Dom Maggio punt blocked by Devante Peete blocked by Devante PeeteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:0984% → 94%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+17
84.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
84.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 7 yds to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 3
OPP 19
0
84.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the WFrst 19Similar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+19
94.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 19 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:156% → 5%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
94.2%
John Wolford sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 11 yards to the WFrst 14Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+11
94.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 11 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-14
94.7%
John Wolford sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 14 yards to the WFrst 11Similar
Q4 5:52
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
95.0%
Dom Maggio punt for 26 yds, downed at the WFrst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:4095% → 99%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+12
95.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the WFrst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
95.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 11 yds to the WFrst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
95.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 8
OPP 12
0
95.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:21
3RD & 8
OPP 12
+10
94.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 10 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 27INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:092% → 0%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
98.4%
Kyle Kearns pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+31
99.8%
Kyle Kearns pass intercepted for a TD Ronald Walker return for 31 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.8%
Rocky Reid run for 4 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Rocky Reid run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Rocky Reid run for no gain to the WFrst 25Similar
Q4 1:46
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 27 yds, downed at the Lvile 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+29
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 29 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
99.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 8 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+13
99.9%
Malik Williams run for 13 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
100.0%
Rocky Reid run for 1 yd to the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:30
Brandon Radcliff run for 55 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q4 10:35
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+14
TD · Q4 7:36
Brandon Radcliff run for 19 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com