2016 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2016 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUNC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:41 · Danny Stirt punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 9:42: Shaun Wilson 1 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +8.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- TD · Q2 8:28: Carl Tucker 54 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +8.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:26: Daniel Jones 1 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +10.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:10: Nick Weiler 36 Yd Field Goal — UNC win probability +6.4 pts (now 65%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:10: Davis Koppenhaver 2 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +18.8 pts (now 64%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
- Q1 12:01DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snapGo for it27.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.1%average punt
- Q1 7:50DUKE 4th & 5 at UNC 39, down 7Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snapGo for it27.3%42% to convertField goal27.1%−0.236% to makePuntTheir call27.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:30UNC 4th & 9 at DUKE 49, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it72.4%−0.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.7%average punt
- Q2 3:24UNC 4th & 3 at UNC 41, tiedClose callPunted · 63.2% before the snapGo for it63.5%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 1:41DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 20, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snapGo for it37.6%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.6%average punt
- Q2 0:33UNC 4th & 17 at DUKE 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 61.4% before the snapGo for it60.4%−0.814% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call61.2%average punt
- Q3 10:09DUKE 4th & 17 at DUKE 39, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it39.5%−3.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call42.9%average punt
- Q3 6:10UNC 4th & 5 at DUKE 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snapGo for it57.5%−0.740% to convertField goalTheir call58.1%79% to makePunt47.8%−10.4average punt
- Q3 0:35UNC 4th & 4 at DUKE 19, down 4Close callKicked a field goal · 43.9% before the snapGo for it44.1%47% to convertField goalTheir call43.5%−0.677% to makePunt32.4%−11.7average punt
- Q4 11:42DUKE 4th & 6 at UNC 25, up 1Close callWent for it · 58.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.6%−0.239% to convertField goal58.8%66% to makePunt45.3%−13.5average punt
- Q4 8:39UNC 4th & 6 at DUKE 45, down 1Close callPunted · 45.1% before the snapGo for it43.8%40% to convertField goal41.0%−2.825% to makePuntTheir call43.3%−0.5average punt
- Q4 1:51DUKE 4th & 10 at UNC 34, up 1Numbers favored field goal by 5.8 ptsPunted · 69.5% before the snapGo for it65.4%−1.230% to convertField goal66.6%47% to makePuntTheir call60.8%−5.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 9:34UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.6%97% to makeGo for two72.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:59UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.5%97% to makeGo for two74.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:54DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.6%97% to makeGo for two27.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:42DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call34.3%97% to makeGo for two34.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:28UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.9%97% to makeGo for two70.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:26DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call35.8%97% to makeGo for two35.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:10DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.9%97% to makeGo for two58.7%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDUKEDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 2:5427% → 28%
UNCDrive 2TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:1772% → 73%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
27.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
28.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 18 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+22
28.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 22 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3PUNT7 plays · 28 yds · 1:2728% → 28%
UNCDrive 4TD10 plays · 96 yds · 3:3973% → 76%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
27.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 23 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
26.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
26.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin Proehl, broken up by Bryon FieldsSimilar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
26.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 10
OPP 30
+10
27.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 10 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5TD12 plays · 68 yds · 3:4425% → 30%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
24.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for 5 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+16
24.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 16 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
25.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q1 2:10
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+5
25.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 5 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+6
25.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 6 yds to the NCaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 1:1573% → 72%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7TD11 plays · 95 yds · 3:4328% → 40%
Q2 12:38
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+8
28.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+31
28.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 16 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dominquie Green) to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
30.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for 7 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
30.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+29
31.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 29 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
31.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 2 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dajaun Drennon) to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD5 plays · 84 yds · 1:0165% → 73%
DUKEDrive 9TD12 plays · 70 yds · 3:5029% → 42%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
29.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q2 6:14
2ND & 5
OPP 37
-10
30.6%
Jones, Daniel pass incomplete to Chambers, Quay, PENALTY DUKE holding (Helm, Daniel) 10 yards to the UNC47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 15
OPP 47
+17
29.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dajaun Drennon) to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+20
31.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 20 yds to the NCaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5264% → 63%
Q2 3:34
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
35.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin Proehl, broken up by Corbin McCarthySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3440% → 39%
UNCDrive 12PUNT10 plays · 3 yds · 0:5865% → 62%
Q2 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-7
35.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for a loss of 7 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 17
OWN 41
+7
37.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 7 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+10
36.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
34.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Bryon FieldsSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-7
35.5%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Ben Humphreys and Joe Giles-Harris for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 17
OPP 49
0
38.3%
Tom Sheldon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14INT8 plays · 50 yds · 1:2762% → 65%
Q3 14:25
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+15
38.3%
Trubisky, Mitch pass incomplete to Proehl, Austin, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Gilbert, Mark) 15 yards to the UNC38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
37.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 7 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
35.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Deondre Singleton return for no gain to the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 2:4943% → 42%
Q3 12:37
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+17
43.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 17 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 6
50
0
47.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 6
50
-11
46.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Jeremiah Clarke for a loss of 11 yards to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 10:09
4TH & 17
OWN 39
+3
42.0%
Danny Stirt punt for 32 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 3 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FG10 plays · 50 yds · 3:5260% → 65%
Q3 9:29
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-15
39.2%
Trubisky, Mitch pass complete to Switzer, Ryan for loss of 2 yards to the UNC35, PENALTY UNC face mask 15 yards to the UNC22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 20
OWN 22
+31
42.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 31 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+8
37.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 8 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
37.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 11 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 21
-12
36.9%
Anthony Ratliff-Williams run for a loss of 12 yards to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 6:44
3RD & 20
OPP 33
+15
41.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 15 yds to the Duke 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD9 plays · 74 yds · 3:4438% → 64%
Q3 4:40
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+35
35.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 35 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FG6 plays · 6 yds · 1:1550% → 49%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
50.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Bryon FieldsSimilar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
51.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Lucas Crowley) to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+4
53.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 4 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 1:12
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+7
53.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19DOWNS12 plays · 56 yds · 3:3654% → 58%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-3
54.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 13
OWN 16
0
54.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Donnie MilesSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+8
61.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 8 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
62.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Dominquie GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 2:5545% → 45%
Q4 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+10
55.0%
Trubisky, Mitch pass incomplete to Proehl, Austin, PENALTY DUKE holding (Gilbert, Mark) 10 yards to the UNC38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT15 plays · 65 yds · 6:3458% → 71%
Q4 5:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+12
59.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+4
66.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+19
65.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 19 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 6
OPP 30
-4
72.3%
Daniel Jones sacked by Tyler Powell for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22INT4 plays · 12 yds · 0:4232% → 31%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
67.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for no gain to the NCaro 6Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+4
69.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 4 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
69.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Alonzo Saxton II return for no gain to the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23END OF GAME6 plays · -7 yds · 0:2682% → 80%
Q4 0:40
3RD & 21
OWN 45
+5
77.9%
TEAM rush for loss of 7 yards to the DUKE38, PENALTY UNC substitution infraction 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+20.4
TD · Q3 2:10
Davis Koppenhaver 2 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)
+18.8
TD · Q2 4:26
Daniel Jones 1 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)
+10.2