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UVA

Virginia 20 at Wake Forest 27

WAKE
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:15 · Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 2 yds to the Virg 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 61Home team on offense+1.5Pregame prior+5.2Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:23: John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 3 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +10.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:43: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +12.8 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 0:23: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 45 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +20.9 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:51: Mike Weaver 36 yd FG GOOD — WAKE win probability +9.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:47: Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Jessie Bates return for 39 yds for a TD VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +34.0 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 11:31WAKE 4th & 12 at WAKE 46, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 47, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:38UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:41WAKE 4th & 3 at UVA 28, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    58.4%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:41UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 46, down 4
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:15WAKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 11, up 4
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:24UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:25WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 14, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.4%−0.3
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:07UVA 4th & 1 at WAKE 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    36.9%−2.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−2.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00WAKE 4th & 9 at WAKE 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:43UVA 4th & 20 at WAKE 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−0.8
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:58WAKE 4th & 2 at UVA 30, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.6%−2.4
    56% to make
    Punt
    66.2%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:16WAKE 4th & 18 at WAKE 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−5.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:51WAKE 4th & 17 at UVA 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−9.0
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    28.4%−16.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:47UVA 4th & 9 at UVA 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:50WAKE 4th & 7 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:37UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.7%−2.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:31UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    42.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:38WAKE Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:23WAKE Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:43UVA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:23UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:47WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:2942% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
58.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 13 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
58.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
58.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+8
58.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
58.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
58.3%
Benkert, K sideline pass incomplete to Dowling, D, PENALTY WF pass interference (Watson, B) 8 yards to the WF44, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
58.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+8
58.3%
Albert Reid run for 8 yds to the WFrst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
58.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the WFrst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
58.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds to the WFrst 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.8%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
57.9%
Cade Carney run for 18 yds to the WFrst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
58.2%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-3
58.1%
John Wolford sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 12
OWN 46
0
57.8%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 46Similar
Q1 11:31
4TH & 12
OWN 46
+26
57.6%
Dom Maggio punt for 36 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 26 yds to the Virg 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
56.6%
Kurt Benkert run for 2 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+1
56.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
56.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
57.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:1157% → 59%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.8%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
56.7%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+10
56.6%
Cade Carney run for 10 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
56.9%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Cade Carney) to the WFrst 30Similar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
56.8%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
56.8%
John Wolford run for 1 yd to the WFrst 36Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+64
59.4%
John Wolford run for 64 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
58.9%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
59.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 3:38
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-1
59.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 36Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+7
59.7%
Kurt Benkert run for 7 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
59.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 41 yds , Jessie Bates returns for no gain to the WFrst 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG
12 plays · 56 yds · 5:2460% → 61%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+13
59.6%
Matt Colburn run for 13 yds to the WFrst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
59.7%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 35Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
60.4%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.6%
John Wolford run for no gain to the WFrst 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-3
60.2%
Matt Colburn run for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 37
+13
59.2%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+15
61.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cade Carney for 15 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
61.6%
John Wolford run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+1
61.6%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
61.0%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
61.4%
Mike Weaver 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+11
60.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 11 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
59.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
60.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+10
61.1%
Kurt Benkert run for 10 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
59.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds, downed at the WFrst 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
60.7%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the WFrst 1Similar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+2
60.7%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 3Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+2
60.5%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 5Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 5
+6
59.7%
Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the WFrst 11Similar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 1
OWN 11
+2
59.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
58.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:24
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+3
59.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
59.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q2 6:24
4TH & 7
OWN 48
+1
60.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 45 yds , Jessie Bates returns for 1 yd to the WFrst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
61.9%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the WFrst 10Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+5
62.2%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-1
61.4%
John Wolford run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 14Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 4
OWN 14
+6
60.6%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 6 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
58.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Chris StewartSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
58.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for no gain to the WFrst 47Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
59.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 9 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 3:07
4TH & 1
OPP 38
-10
59.8%
Kurt Benkert run for a loss of 10 yards to the WFrst 48 Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by WFrst Cameron GlennSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12TD
8 plays · 52 yds · 1:3366% → 77%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
65.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 11 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+21
66.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 21 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
66.4%
Cade Carney run for 8 yds to the Virg 12Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+3
66.4%
Matt Colburn run for 3 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
66.4%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
66.4%
John Wolford run for 6 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 3 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:1623% → 24%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
76.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
76.9%
Kurt Benkert run for 9 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
76.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Jessie BatesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
76.2%
John Wolford run for 3 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
76.1%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 28
-4
75.3%
John Wolford sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 4 yards to the WFrst 24Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+3
74.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 32 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 3 yds to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15TD
10 plays · 53 yds · 2:5625% → 40%
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
74.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+8
74.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the WFrst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
74.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the WFrst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
73.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Chris StewartSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
73.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q3 12:39
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+16
74.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 16 yds to the WFrst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
73.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
73.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 15 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
73.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the WFrst 2Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
60.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0038% → 33%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
62.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
63.3%
Albert Reid run for 11 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
61.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
62.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-7
60.6%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Chris Stewart and Josh Banks for a loss of 7 yards to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 17
OPP 39
-3
63.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Wendell Dunn for a loss of 3 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 20
OPP 42
0
65.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Josh OkonyeSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
66.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates at the WFrst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 5:2568% → 71%
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
67.6%
Matt Colburn run for 9 yds to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
68.4%
Matt Colburn run for no gain to the WFrst 23Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+3
66.9%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
68.0%
John Wolford run for 12 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
69.2%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the WFrst 39Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+8
69.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 8 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+15
69.6%
Wolford, J rush quarterback draw for loss of 2 yards to the WF45 (Kiser, M), PENALTY VA face mask (Kiser, M) 15 yards to the VA38, 1ST DOWN WF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
71.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+1
71.8%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 7:23
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
70.5%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+48
70.5%
Mike Weaver 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3534% → 60%
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
66.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
64.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 1
50
+5
61.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the WFrst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
40.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 45 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 1:0747% → 46%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
47.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 11 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
47.5%
John Wolford sacked by Eli Hanback for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 33
-1
46.6%
John Wolford run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 13
OWN 32
-10
46.8%
Wolford, J sideline pass complete to Lewis, C for 19 yards to the VA49 (Hall, B), PENALTY WF holding (Herron, J) 10 yards to the WF22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:16
3RD & 23
OWN 22
+5
46.3%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q4 14:16
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
45.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for no gain to the Virg 27 VIRGINIA Penalty, illegal block (Joe Reed) to the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
44.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-5
44.4%
Benkert, K pass complete to Dubois, H for 24 yards to the VA45 (Kemp, D), PENALTY VA ineligible downfield on pass (Matteo, J) 5 yards to the VA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+10
44.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
44.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+4
44.0%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+3
44.3%
Benkert, K slant pass incomplete to Dowling, D (Henderson, A), PENALTY WF pass interference (Henderson, A) 3 yards to the VA35, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
43.3%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Marquel Lee for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 29Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+8
45.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q4 13:15
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+41
44.2%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Cameron Glenn return for 41 yds to the Virg 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 21FG
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:5452% → 59%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
52.0%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+3
52.0%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-11
49.1%
John Wolford pass complete to John Wolford for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 13 WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal forward pass (John Wolford) to the Virg 18Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+36
58.5%
Mike Weaver 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22INT TD
4 plays · -12 yds · 1:0446% → 12%
Q4 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
53.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
54.0%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Josh Banks and Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+39
88.0%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Jessie Bates return for 39 yds for a TD VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
86.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
85.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q4 6:47
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+1
88.0%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Virg 21Similar
Q4 6:47
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
88.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 56 yds, downed at the WFrst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 3:5591% → 96%
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
91.2%
Cade Carney run for 7 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+2
91.4%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 32Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+2
91.0%
John Wolford run for 2 yds to the WFrst 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
91.4%
John Wolford run for 13 yds to the WFrst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
95.3%
John Wolford run for no gain to the WFrst 47Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
95.5%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the WFrst 49Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+1
95.4%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:50
4TH & 7
50
0
96.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 38 yds, downed at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
93.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
93.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
93.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 0:37
3RD & 4
OWN 28
0
92.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q4 0:37
4TH & 4
OWN 28
-1
93.6%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Josh Banks for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:47
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Jessie Bates return for 39 yds for a TD VIRGINIA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declined, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+34
TD · Q3 0:23
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 45 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)
-20.9
TD · Q3 9:43
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 2 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)
-12.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com