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PITT

Pittsburgh 28 at Miami 51

MIA
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.8MIA 71.9%Michael Badgley 48 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 20 · Q2 11:18
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 11:18 · Michael Badgley 48 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 60Home team on offense+3.8Pregame prior+13.5Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:45: Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 23 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +7.6 pts (now 40%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:05: Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +7.5 pts (now 75%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:33: Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +8.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:38: Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 5 yds for a TD PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Michael Badgley KICK) — MIA win probability +5.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:27: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 75 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +10.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 7PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 7:33PITT 4th & 10 at MIA 48, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    31.4%
    average punt
  2. Q2 11:18MIA 4th & 2 at PITT 31, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.7%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 6:05PITT 4th & 10 at MIA 38, down 6
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:25MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 25, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%
    average punt
  5. Q3 13:33PITT 4th & 15 at MIA 45, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    17.4%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:39MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 29, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:07MIA 4th & 10 at MIA 20, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  8. Q3 2:27PITT 4th & 21 at MIA 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%−1.8
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:27MIA 4th & 2 at MIA 33, up 13
    Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:07PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:38MIA 4th & 1 at PITT 48, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.0 ptsPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−2.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:41PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 10, down 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:21MIA 4th & 4 at PITT 8, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.5%−0.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:21PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 16, down 16
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:12PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 28, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:46MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:30PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:33MIA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:44PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:45PITT Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:05MIA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:33MIA Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:38MIA Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:27PITT Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.6%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:12MIA Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1470% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
69.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 6 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
69.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 10 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
69.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+41
69.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 41 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
69.6%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+12
70.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 12 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
12 plays · 77 yds · 4:5769% → 71%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
69.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+30
69.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 30 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
69.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+8
69.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
69.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+16
69.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 16 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
69.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the Pitt 10Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+9
69.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 9 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.6%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.6%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
70.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 17 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
70.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 10 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
70.1%
James Conner run for no gain to the MiaFl 48Similar
Q1 7:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
70.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott Orndoff, broken up by Jaquan JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:33
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
70.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q1 7:33
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
70.9%
Ryan Winslow pass incomplete to Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
14 plays · 23 yds · 3:1872% → 72%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
71.9%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+9
72.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 9 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+23
72.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 23 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
72.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Dayall Harris for 9 yds to the Pitt 4Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 1
OPP 4
0
72.0%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Pitt 4Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+1
71.9%
Marquez Williams run for 1 yd to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
72.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy Coley, broken up by Ryan LewisSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
72.4%
Kaaya,B. pass complete to Njoku,D. for 3 yards to the UP0, clock 03:17, PENALTY UM pass interference (Coley,S.) 15 yards to the UP18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
-5
72.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, false start (Stacy Coley) to the Pitt 23Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
0
72.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q1 3:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 23
+4
71.6%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the Pitt 19Similar
Q1 2:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
-10
70.9%
Badgley,M. field goal attempt from 36 GOOD, clock 02:31, PENALTY UM holding (Njoku,D.) 10 yards to the UP29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 0
OPP 29
+46
71.8%
Michael Badgley 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4228% → 34%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
71.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
71.5%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
71.6%
George Aston run for 1 yd to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
71.8%
Quadree Henderson run for 7 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
71.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 7 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
71.3%
Quadree Henderson run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+19
71.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 19 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
70.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 4 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, roughing passer (12 Yards) to the MiaFl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
65.6%
James Conner run for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2668% → 72%
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
68.0%
Brad Kaaya run for 12 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
69.2%
Gus Edwards run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+16
68.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 16 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
69.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
69.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 8 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q2 13:44
3RD & 2
OPP 31
0
69.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+48
71.9%
Michael Badgley 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3330% → 40%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
70.0%
Nathan Peterman run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 19 Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Pitt Nathan PetermanSimilar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+2
70.3%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+25
70.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 25 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+22
68.4%
Quadree Henderson run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
67.2%
James Conner run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
59.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 23 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 2:4064% → 75%
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
64.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+17
64.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 17 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
66.3%
Mark Walton run for 29 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
67.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
67.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q2 8:45
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+14
66.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 14 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
67.4%
Mark Walton run for 8 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
67.4%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
67.5%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.0%
Brad Kaaya run for 1 yd for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott Orndoff, broken up by Corn ElderSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+15
71.0%
James Conner run for 15 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
69.4%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+13
70.1%
Nathan Peterman run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-4
68.3%
Chawntez Moss run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+14
70.4%
Quadree Henderson run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
68.3%
Chawntez Moss run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+3
68.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 3 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 5
OPP 33
-5
68.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Brian O'Neill) to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
69.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q2 6:05
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
70.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5873% → 72%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
73.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
72.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 8 yds to the MiaFl 28 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive holding (Stacy Coley) to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+7
72.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 7 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
72.5%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Malcolm LewisSimilar
Q2 0:25
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
72.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
73.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez Ford, broken up by Zach McCloudSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
73.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.5%
Nathan Peterman run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
71.6%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 8 Quadree Henderson fumbled, forced by Kendrick Norton, recovered by MiaFl Chad Thomas , return for 9 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 14TD
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:4376% → 85%
Q3 14:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
76.3%
Brad Kaaya run for 5 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q3 14:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
76.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
82.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Aaron Mathews for 9 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+10
82.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 10 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
81.7%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+11
81.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 11 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
81.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to George AstonSimilar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
81.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to James ConnerSimilar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-5
81.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 15
OPP 45
0
82.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott Orndoff, broken up by Jamal Carter Sr.Similar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 15
OPP 45
0
82.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
86.1%
Mark Walton run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q3 10:39
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
86.0%
Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q3 10:39
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
85.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 6 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 10:39
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
84.9%
Justin Vogel punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17INT
11 plays · 79 yds · 0:4814% → 19%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
85.7%
Maurice Ffrench run for 1 yd to the Pitt 18Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
85.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+20
85.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 20 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
83.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 22 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
82.1%
Peterman, N. pass complete to Ford, D. for 4 yards to the UM36, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UP illegal touching (Ford, D.) 0 yards to the UM40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
82.2%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q3 8:05
3RD & 9
OPP 39
+33
82.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 33 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
81.1%
Conner, J. rush for loss of 2 yards to the UM8 (Pinckney,M.), PENALTY UM OFF (Carter Sr.,J.) 3 yards to the UM3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
81.1%
George Aston run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 4Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
81.1%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted, touchback. Rayshawn Jenkins return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0888% → 87%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
88.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q3 5:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
86.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy Coley, broken up by Avonte MaddoxSimilar
Q3 5:07
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+17
86.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 17 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:2017% → 13%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
83.0%
Darrin Hall run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
82.0%
Darrin Hall run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
82.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 4:47
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
82.0%
Nathan Peterman run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 13Similar
Q3 4:47
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-12
83.2%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Trent Harris for a loss of 12 yards to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 2:27
4TH & 21
OPP 25
+43
86.8%
Chris Blewitt 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:4989% → 99%
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-1
89.2%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
88.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for 5 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
89.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 9 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q3 2:27
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
90.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+7
89.4%
Gus Edwards run for 7 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+38
93.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 38 yds to the Pitt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
93.7%
Gus Edwards run for 4 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
93.7%
Gus Edwards run for no gain to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 5 yds for a TD PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
89.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 75 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 1 yd to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+7
93.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 7 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
94.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
93.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
90.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
90.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
90.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+15
90.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 15 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
95.1%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Allen Edwards for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 13
OWN 40
+6
94.8%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 7
OWN 46
+6
94.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 6 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 1
OPP 48
0
94.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 47 yds, downed at the Pitt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
91.7%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+4
91.7%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 9:41
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+1
91.9%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 9:41
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
92.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the Pitt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 4:5496% → 99%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+16
96.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 16 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
96.3%
Joseph Yearby run for 5 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+12
96.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 12 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
96.4%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+1
96.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 1 yd to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+6
98.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 6 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 4
OPP 8
+25
99.0%
Michael Badgley 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
96.7%
Nathan Peterman run for 5 yds to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 5
OWN 16
0
96.7%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 16
0
96.7%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 5
OWN 16
+7
96.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for 7 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28TD
5 plays · 62 yds · 0:2899% → 100%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.1%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
99.2%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
Mark Walton run for 55 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 3 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
99.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-10
99.6%
Peterman, N. pass incomplete to Orndoff, S. (Redwine,S.), PENALTY UP holding (Bookser, A.) 10 yards to the UP13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+2
99.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+13
99.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 13 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Darrion OwensSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:27
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 75 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-10
TD · Q3 13:33
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 3 yds for a TD, (Michael Badgley KICK)
+8.5
TD · Q2 8:45
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 23 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com