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Georgia Tech 20 at North Carolina 48

UNC
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadGT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreGT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:45 · Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 1 yd to the GTech 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:06: Dedrick Mills run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +9.3 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 73%).
  2. TD · Q2 2:24: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 68 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +9.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:46: Harrison Butker 42 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +5.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:47: Elijah Hood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +8.7 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:44: T.J. Logan run for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +6.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:10GT 4th & 12 at GT 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:23UNC 4th & 12 at GT 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−0.3
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%
    75% to make
    Punt
    74.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:01GT 4th & 18 at UNC 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    24.6%−0.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:33UNC 4th & 7 at GT 48, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:19UNC 4th & 1 at GT 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−1.0
    42% to make
    Punt
    71.5%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:38GT 4th & 6 at UNC 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:28UNC 4th & 9 at GT 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.4%
    51% to make
    Punt
    75.6%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:33GT 4th & 6 at UNC 14, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−4.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:46GT 4th & 8 at UNC 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.4%
    66% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 11:21GT 4th & 1 at UNC 17, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:15UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:32GT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:19UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:06GT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:24UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:47UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:44UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:21UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNCDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4572% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
71.6%
Austin Proehl pass complete to Mitch Trubisky for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+45
71.6%
Elijah Hood run for 45 yds to the GTech 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+15
71.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 15 yds to the GTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
71.6%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds to the GTech 1Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.0%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
71.8%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
71.8%
Dedrick Mills run for 3 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
71.9%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 15Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
71.9%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q1 13:10
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
71.9%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 58 yds, downed at the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 3FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 3:2572% → 73%
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
72.1%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
72.1%
Elijah Hood run for 10 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+23
72.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Brandon Fritts for 23 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
72.3%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the GTech 22Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 2
OPP 22
0
72.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Brandon Fritts, broken up by A.J. GraySimilar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
72.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 4 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
72.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 11:48
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+3
72.3%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 12
OPP 20
0
72.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 12
OPP 20
0
72.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:23
4TH & 12
OPP 20
+37
72.5%
Nick Weiler 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2228% → 26%
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
72.5%
Dedrick Mills run for 15 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+26
72.2%
Justin Thomas run for 26 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
71.8%
Clinton Lynch run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-15
71.7%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 15 yards to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 6:01
3RD & 22
OPP 46
+4
73.8%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 6:01
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
74.0%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
73.8%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+23
73.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 23 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
74.3%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
50
+4
74.3%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the GTech 46Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-5
74.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Jon Heck) to the NCaro 49Similar
Q1 5:33
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+3
73.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 3 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
73.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD
1 play · 83 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+83
70.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 83 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1371% → 75%
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
70.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
71.2%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
71.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+11
70.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 11 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
71.7%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
71.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to T.J. LoganSimilar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 7
OPP 42
-5
71.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Tommy Hatton) to the GTech 47Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+11
70.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 11 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q1 0:19
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+36
74.9%
Elijah Hood run for 36 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8FG
10 plays · 69 yds · 4:4125% → 27%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
74.8%
Qua Searcy run for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
74.6%
Justin Thomas run for 7 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
74.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 40 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
73.3%
Clinton Lynch run for 14 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
73.3%
Qua Searcy run for 8 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-11
73.3%
Mills, D. rush left for no gain to the NC1 (Miles, D;Collins, C), PENALTY GT holding (Devine, S.) 11 yards to the NC12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
73.4%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
73.9%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 6Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
73.5%
Harrison Butker 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:1075% → 77%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.6%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
74.5%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
74.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.6%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
75.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Step DurhamSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+15
74.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 15 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
75.9%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 48Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+15
75.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
76.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
76.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-5
75.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (R.J. Prince) to the GTech 32Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
75.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+50
77.4%
Nick Weiler 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2223% → 32%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.5%
Qua Searcy run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 23 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Andre Smith) to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
76.8%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 38Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+39
76.9%
Dedrick Mills run for 39 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
75.1%
Dedrick Mills run for 5 yds to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
75.1%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
75.1%
Justin Thomas run for 8 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+4
67.8%
Dedrick Mills run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4271% → 81%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+68
80.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 68 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 1:4620% → 22%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.7%
N/A run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+41
80.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 41 yds to the UNC 31 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
77.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+4
77.4%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 6
OPP 27
+9
76.7%
Dedrick Mills run for 9 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
75.9%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the NCaro 16 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, illegal forward pass (Justin Thomas) to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 13
OPP 21
0
77.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky Jeune, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 13
OPP 21
+7
78.4%
Justin Thomas run for 7 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 6
OPP 14
+32
78.1%
Harrison Butker 32 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by D.J. Ford N/A return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
79.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14FG
15 plays · 50 yds · 6:1422% → 24%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.1%
Dedrick Mills run for 4 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
77.6%
Justin Thomas run for 3 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+14
78.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 14 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
76.6%
Dedrick Mills run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+5
75.7%
Dedrick Mills run for 5 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
76.1%
Dedrick Mills run for 2 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+3
76.1%
Dedrick Mills run for 3 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+10
76.4%
Dedrick Mills run for 10 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
74.9%
Marcus Allen run for 4 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
74.9%
Dedrick Mills run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
75.9%
Dedrick Mills run for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
Q3 8:51
4TH & 3
OPP 20
-5
82.0%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 8:46
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
76.5%
Harrison Butker 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:5180% → 91%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
79.6%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+22
79.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 22 yds to the NCaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
81.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug HowardSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
81.2%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 7
50
+15
80.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 15 yds to the GTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
82.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 7 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+11
82.4%
Elijah Hood run for 11 yds to the GTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
82.4%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds to the GTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
82.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin Proehl, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q3 5:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.2%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.4%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Qua Searcy for 6 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
87.8%
Qua Searcy run for 3 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q3 5:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
87.8%
Dedrick Mills run for 5 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
87.6%
Dedrick Mills run for 1 yd to the GTech 44 Dedrick Mills fumbled, forced by Mikey Bart, recovered by NCaro Myles DornSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:1992% → 98%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
91.9%
Ryan Switzer run for 4 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 6
OPP 40
0
92.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+7
91.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 7 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
92.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+3
92.0%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
91.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 8 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
98.3%
T.J. Logan run for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18FUMBLE
11 plays · 62 yds · 1:443% → 2%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.4%
Justin Thomas run for 21 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
97.3%
Clinton Lynch run for 7 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
97.2%
Matthew Jordan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
97.3%
Matthew Jordan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
98.0%
Matthew Jordan run for 5 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+8
97.9%
Qua Searcy run for 8 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
97.9%
Dedrick Mills run for 5 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
97.7%
N/A run for no gain to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+7
97.9%
Dedrick Mills run for 7 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
97.7%
Dedrick Mills run for no gain to the NCaro 13 Dedrick Mills fumbled, recovered by NCaro Jeremiah ClarkeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19TD
3 plays · 87 yds · 3:3998% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+46
98.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 46 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+23
98.5%
Elijah Hood run for 23 yds to the GTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
99.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for 18 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20DOWNS
12 plays · 57 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Matthew Jordan run for 5 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.9%
Qua Searcy run for 6 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.9%
Matthew Jordan run for 15 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
99.9%
Marcus Allen run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
99.9%
Clinton Lynch run for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
99.8%
Matthew Jordan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
99.9%
Matthew Jordan run for 12 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
99.8%
Matthew Jordan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+4
99.8%
Matthew Jordan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q4 11:21
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+2
99.8%
Qua Searcy run for 2 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q4 11:21
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-1
99.8%
Matthew Jordan run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21END OF GAME
8 plays · 47 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 9 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+17
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 17 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+1
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 46Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+15
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 15 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 7 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q4 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 32
-4
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+1
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 1 yd to the GTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:24
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 68 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 3:06
Dedrick Mills run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q3 5:47
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com