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VT

Virginia Tech 24 at Duke 21

DUKE
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:38 · Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Pregame prior−9.3Home team on offense−16.1Score differential−9.5Garbage-time factor−6.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:40: Adonis Alexander 75 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +6.8 pts (now 72%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:57: Jerod Evans run for 7 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +5.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:00: Daniel Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +16.7 pts (now 33%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:10: Daniel Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +24.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:59: Travon McMillian run for 21 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST down — VT win probability +9.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 9VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 12:09VT 4th & 3 at DUKE 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52DUKE 4th & 22 at DUKE 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:21VT 4th & 1 at DUKE 17, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%−0.7
    80% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:40DUKE 4th & 3 at VT 12, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.8%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    33.4%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:28DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:57VT 4th & 1 at DUKE 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.1%−1.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−6.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:49DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:28VT 4th & 8 at VT 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:04DUKE 4th & 9 at VT 42, down 14
    Close callPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.3%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:18VT 4th & 8 at VT 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:40DUKE 4th & 28 at VT 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:00VT 4th & 3 at DUKE 47, up 14
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:38DUKE 4th & 1 at VT 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.1%−1.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:43VT 4th & 1 at VT 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.2%−2.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:09VT 4th & 5 at DUKE 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−7.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:41DUKE 4th & 4 at VT 46, down 10
    Close callPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−2.3
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%−0.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:51VT 4th & 6 at VT 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−1.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:55VT 4th & 7 at VT 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%−4.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:06DUKE 4th & 7 at VT 47, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:35VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:55DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:40VT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:57VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:00DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:10DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.3%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:2175% → 74%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
25.4%
Jerod Evans run for 5 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+11
25.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Travon McMillian for 11 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
25.6%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+7
25.7%
Steven Peoples run for 7 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
25.8%
Steven Peoples run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 4
50
-1
26.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+2
26.2%
Cam Phillips run for 2 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 3
OPP 49
0
26.4%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:5327% → 27%
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
26.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 15Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 15
-1
26.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+11
26.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 11 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-12
27.4%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 25 DUKE Penalty, Personal Foul (Johnathan Lloyd) to the Duke 13Similar
Q1 10:02
3RD & 22
OWN 13
0
27.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+5
27.4%
Danny Stirt punt for 46 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 5 yds to the VTech 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:0573% → 74%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
27.3%
Cam Phillips run for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
27.5%
Sam Rogers run for no gain to the VTech 49Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
27.7%
DUKE Penalty, Neutral Zone Infraction (Dominic McDonald) to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+10
27.6%
Jerod Evans run for 10 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+20
27.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 20 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
27.7%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+14
25.6%
Travon McMillian run for 14 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3427% → 32%
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
26.5%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
26.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
27.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+7
27.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
50
+6
27.6%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+12
27.7%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
28.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for no gain to the VTech 32Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
28.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 4:20
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+22
28.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 22 yds to the VTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 2:2470% → 69%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
30.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
30.6%
Jerod Evans run for 7 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 3:00
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+8
30.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 8 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+22
30.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Travon McMillian for 22 yds to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
29.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 14 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST down DUKE Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
29.4%
Sam Rogers run for 6 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+3
29.4%
Sam Rogers run for 3 yds to the Duke 17Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 1
OPP 17
0
30.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Chris CunninghamSimilar
Q1 1:21
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+34
30.6%
Joey Slye 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6MISSED FG TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:3632% → 29%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
32.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+2
32.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+14
31.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 14 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
33.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 30 yds to the VTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
34.8%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+6
35.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
35.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the VTech 17Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
35.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+5
35.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 5 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q2 12:40
4TH & 3
OPP 12
+75
28.5%
Adonis Alexander 75 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:4728% → 27%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
27.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 6 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
28.1%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for no gain to the Duke 29Similar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
27.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q2 11:28
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
27.1%
Danny Stirt punt for 37 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:2373% → 80%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
27.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 9 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
26.4%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
26.5%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-7
26.2%
Jerod Evans sacked by Marquies Price for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 48Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 9
OWN 48
+10
26.7%
Jerod Evans run for 10 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
26.1%
Cam Phillips run for 3 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 8:59
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
26.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+23
26.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 23 yds to the Duke 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
25.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Henri Murphy for 9 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OPP 7
0
25.0%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
25.2%
Bucky Hodges run for no gain to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+7
20.0%
Jerod Evans run for 7 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4120% → 20%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
20.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
20.8%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 5:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
20.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 5:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
19.9%
Danny Stirt punt for 48 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1280% → 80%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
19.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Alonzo Saxton IISimilar
Q2 5:34
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
19.9%
Phillips, Cam rush over right end for 4 yards to the VATECH26, PENALTY DUKE offside (Hornbuckle, James) 5 yards to the VATECH27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
19.6%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-5
20.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to C.J. Carroll for 5 yds to the VTech 34 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bucky Hodges) to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
20.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Marshawn WilliamsSimilar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
20.4%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:1621% → 21%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
21.2%
Jones, Daniel pass right slant incomplete to Helm, Daniel thrown to the VATECH45 (Edmunds, Terrell), PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Edmunds, Terrell) 12 yards to the VATECH43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
21.3%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
21.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q2 3:30
3RD & 3
OPP 36
-6
21.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 42Similar
Q2 3:04
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
20.5%
Danny Stirt punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:2781% → 82%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.2%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 20Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
19.1%
Jerod Evans run for 7 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+11
18.4%
Jerod Evans run for 11 yds to the VTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
17.3%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
17.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
17.4%
Jerod Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 8
OWN 40
0
17.9%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:5919% → 18%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
18.5%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+7
18.1%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+7
17.5%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:1318% → 17%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
18.2%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
18.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q3 14:03
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+29
19.3%
Daniel Jones run for 29 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
20.4%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the VTech 25Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
19.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the VTech 24Similar
Q3 12:24
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
19.2%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the VTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
19.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Ricky Walker for a loss of 10 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 20
OPP 30
0
19.0%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 20
OPP 30
-8
17.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Seth Dooley and Woody Baron for a loss of 8 yards to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 28
OPP 38
0
17.1%
Danny Stirt punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:2084% → 86%
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
15.7%
Jerod Evans sacked by Joe Giles-Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 18Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+11
14.6%
Travon McMillian run for 11 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
14.5%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
14.2%
Evans, Jerod pass right sideline complete to Ford, Isaiah for 22 yards to the DUKE47 (caught at the DUKE47), out-of-bounds, PENALTY DUKE pass interference (Borders, Breon) 15 yards to the VATECH46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
13.2%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 8
OWN 48
-2
13.1%
Jerod Evans sacked by Mike Ramsay and A.J. Wolf for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+7
13.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
14.0%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16TD
11 plays · 85 yds · 3:5015% → 33%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
14.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 13 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
15.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 15 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
16.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 3
50
+2
16.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
16.6%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 5:38
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
16.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
16.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay Chambers, broken up by Mook ReynoldsSimilar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+28
15.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 28 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
16.4%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q3 4:16
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+5
16.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 5 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
32.9%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17FG
17 plays · 68 yds · 4:4475% → 80%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
24.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+16
24.6%
Jerod Evans run for 16 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
22.2%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-4
22.2%
Evans, Jerod pass right slant complete to Phillips, Cam for 6 yards to the VATECH47 (caught at the VATECH47), PENALTY VATECH ineligible downfield on pass 4 yards to the VATECH37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 12
OWN 37
-2
23.8%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 14
OWN 35
+13
25.6%
Jerod Evans run for 13 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 1:43
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
23.4%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
50
0
21.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 10
50
+16
21.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 16 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
21.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 12
OPP 36
+22
21.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 22 yds to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
20.6%
Evans, Jerod pass left post complete to Ford, Isaiah for 14 yards to the DUKE0 (caught at the DUKE0), PENALTY VATECH ineligible downfield on pass (Teller, Wyatt) 5 yards to the DUKE19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+4
20.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 4 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+6
20.3%
Jerod Evans run for 6 yds to the Duke 9Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
19.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
20.2%
Joey Slye 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:0918% → 17%
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
19.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
18.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+8
19.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 8 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
19.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+3
20.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
19.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Adonis AlexanderSimilar
Q4 11:41
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
17.0%
Danny Stirt punt for 38 yds, fair catch by C.J. Carroll at the VTech 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:2983% → 85%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
17.5%
Marshawn Williams run for 5 yds to the VTech 13Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+6
16.3%
Marshawn Williams run for 6 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
15.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 21Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
14.1%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the VTech 23Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
14.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q4 9:51
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+5
14.6%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 30 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 5 yds to the VTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20TD
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:3516% → 42%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
16.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 9:17
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
16.7%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Tanner Stone) to the VTech 49Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+19
15.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 19 yds to the VTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
17.2%
Daniel Jones run for 16 yds to the VTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
17.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron Young, broken up by Brandon FacysonSimilar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
17.4%
Jones, Daniel pass right sideline incomplete to Young, Aaron thrown to the VATECH0, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Facyson, Brandon) 12 yards to the VATECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
17.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the VTech 1Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
17.3%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 2Similar
Q4 7:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.8%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0671% → 70%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
29.4%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
29.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 3
OWN 29
-4
28.7%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
29.6%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:4436% → 35%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
36.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Mook ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+18
35.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (Terrell Edmunds) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down. Terrell Edmunds ejected for targeting.Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 10
50
-5
39.9%
Daniel Jones sacked by Tremaine Edmunds for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+8
34.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Aaron Young for 8 yds to the VTech 47Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
39.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
Q4 4:06
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
34.5%
Danny Stirt punt for 33 yds, fair catch by C.J. Carroll at the VTech 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23END OF GAME
13 plays · 53 yds · 3:4475% → 95%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+21
24.7%
Travon McMillian run for 21 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
21.9%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
20.7%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+15
16.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
14.8%
Sam Rogers run for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 1:57
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
11.3%
Sam Rogers run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+4
9.7%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
8.0%
TEAM run quarterback kneel for loss of 3 yards to the Duke 36, DUKE Penalty, Defensive Offside (A.J. Wolf) to the Duke 29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 6
OPP 29
-3
4.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-1
4.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:10
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+24.5
TD · Q3 4:00
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+16.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 3:59
Travon McMillian run for 21 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST down
-9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com