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Win probability · CLEM
modelCLEM aheadSYR aheadconfidence bandkey playCLEM scoreSYR score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:53 · Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 7 yds to the Clem 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 3:47: Deshaun Watson 1 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:11: Deon Cain 65 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel PAT failed) — CLEM win probability +1.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:16: Mike Williams 14 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q2 1:27: Artavis Scott 5 Yd pass from Nick Schuessler (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:08: Wayne Gallman 5 Yd Run (Greg Huegel Kick) — CLEM win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7SYR made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
- Q1 13:16SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.9%average punt
- Q1 11:44CLEM 4th & 2 at SYR 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call94.9%57% to convertField goal94.8%−0.149% to makePunt94.7%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:26CLEM 4th & 5 at SYR 5, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.4% before the snapGo for it94.4%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call94.4%92% to makePunt93.9%−0.5average punt
- Q1 6:53SYR 4th & 9 at CLEM 48, down 3Close callWent for it · 6.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.1%average punt
- Q1 4:51CLEM 4th & 5 at CLEM 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q2 14:42SYR 4th & 22 at CLEM 42, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.38% to convertField goal6.5%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q2 12:16SYR 4th & 14 at SYR 41, down 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.418% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q2 1:39CLEM 4th & 4 at SYR 29, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.7%48% to convertField goal97.6%−<0.158% to makePunt97.2%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:33SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 35, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q3 10:10SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 48, down 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 7:24CLEM 4th & 7 at CLEM 39, up 37Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q3 4:31SYR 4th & 6 at CLEM 14, down 37Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call0.2%84% to makePunt-0.2%−0.4average punt
- Q3 0:00SYR 4th & 4 at SYR 25, down 44Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:42CLEM 4th & 8 at SYR 29, up 44Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call99.9%58% to makePunt99.6%−0.3average punt
- Q4 8:38SYR 4th & 1 at SYR 36, down 47Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.0%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 4:15SYR 4th & 11 at SYR 32, down 54Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.126% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 2:34CLEM 4th & 14 at CLEM 29, up 54Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 0:54SYR 4th & 12 at SYR 23, down 54Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 3:47CLEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.2%97% to makeGo for two94.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:11CLEM Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call94.4%97% to makeGo for two94.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:16CLEM Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.1%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:27CLEM Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:08CLEM Touchdown, up 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:26CLEM Touchdown, up 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:40CLEM Touchdown, up 53 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSYRDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 1:374% → 4%
Q1 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
96.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 4 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-5
96.0%
Eric Dungey sacked by Carlos Watkins for a loss of 5 yards to the Syrac 21Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
95.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 2FG10 plays · 36 yds · 3:3496% → 95%
SYRDrive 3DOWNS11 plays · 20 yds · 2:235% → 5%
Q1 8:44
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+9
95.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 9 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
94.9%
Neal, Moe rush for 1 yard to the CLEMSON48, PENALTY SYRACUSE illegal block (Ishmael, Steve) 10 yards to the SYRACUSE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 25
OWN 36
+9
94.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 9 yds to the Syrac 45Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 16
OWN 45
+7
94.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 7 yds to the Clem 48Similar
Q1 6:53
4TH & 9
OPP 48
+7
94.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 7 yds to the Clem 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 4PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5395% → 94%
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
94.7%
Watson, Deshaun pass incomplete, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Hyatt, Mitch) 10 yards to the CLEMSON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:27
1ST & 20
OWN 31
-10
94.5%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for a loss of 10 yards to the Clem 21Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 24
OWN 27
+19
94.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 19 yds to the Clem 46Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 5
OWN 46
+7
94.1%
Andy Teasdall punt for 35 yds , Brisly Estime returns for 7 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 5INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
94.2%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted Ryan Carter return for 17 yds to the Syrac 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 6TD3 plays · 15 yds · 0:5094% → 95%
SYRDrive 7PUNT15 plays · 47 yds · 3:565% → 6%
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
94.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 12 yds to the Syrac 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+21
94.3%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 6 yds to the Clem 36 for a 1ST down CLEMSON Penalty, Personal Foul (Ben Boulware) to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+18
94.1%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 18 yds to the Clem 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 20
OPP 40
-2
94.0%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Dontae Strickland for a loss of 2 yards to the Clem 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 8TD2 plays · 95 yds · 0:2494% → 96%
SYRDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:415% → 5%
Q2 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+11
94.9%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ervin Philips for 11 yds to the Syrac 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 48
-7
95.1%
Austin Wilson sacked by Dexter Lawrence for a loss of 7 yards to the Syrac 41 SYRACUSE Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Austin Wilson) to the Syrac 41Similar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 14
OWN 41
0
95.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the Clem 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 10TD13 plays · 89 yds · 4:4496% → 98%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
95.8%
Feaster, Tavien rush for 5 yards to the CLEMSON16, PENALTY CLEMSON holding (Scott, Artavis) 5 yards to the CLEMSON6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:13
3RD & 2
OWN 19
+8
95.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 8 yds to the Clem 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-6
96.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for a loss of 6 yards to the Clem 25Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 12
OWN 25
+23
95.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 23 yds to the Clem 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
96.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 8 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 11INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:263% → 3%
CLEMDrive 12TD14 plays · 86 yds · 4:5698% → 99%
Q2 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+7
98.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 7 yds to the Clem 22Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 2
OWN 22
+11
98.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Choice for 11 yds to the Clem 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+18
97.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 18 yds to the Syrac 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
98.1%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+24
98.1%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 24 yds to the Syrac 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 13PUNT9 plays · 15 yds · 0:361% → 1%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.4%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Sean Riley for 3 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
99.4%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 5 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+3
99.3%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 3 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
3RD & 10
OWN 31
+4
99.4%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 4 yds to the Syrac 35Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 6
OWN 35
+1
99.4%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 44 yds , Artavis Scott returns for 1 yd to the Clem 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 14MISSED FG6 plays · 55 yds · 0:2299% → 99%
SYRDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 16TD8 plays · 44 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q3 14:50
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+6
99.5%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Artavis Scott for 6 yds to the Syrac 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
99.5%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Hunter Renfrow for 6 yds to the Syrac 27Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+17
99.6%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Mike Williams for 17 yds to the Syrac 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 28 yds · 1:500% → 0%
Q3 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
99.7%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 6 yds to the Syrac 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.6%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ervin Philips for 4 yds to the Syrac 34Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+17
99.6%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 17 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
4TH & 13
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Artavis Scott at the Clem 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 18PUNT7 plays · 23 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
SYRDrive 19MISSED FG7 plays · 65 yds · 2:440% → 0%
Q3 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+8
99.7%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ervin Philips for 8 yds to the Clem 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
99.7%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ervin Philips for 3 yds to the Clem 15Similar
Q3 5:08
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+4
99.8%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Ervin Philips for 4 yds to the Clem 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 20TD10 plays · 80 yds · 2:38100% → 100%
Q3 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+29
99.8%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Deon Cain for 29 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+9
99.8%
Nick Schuessler pass complete to Seth Ryan for 9 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:30
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+18
99.8%
Tavien Feaster run for 3 yds to the Syrac 32 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
99.9%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 5 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q3 0:39
3RD & 5
OWN 24
+1
99.9%
Austin Wilson pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 1 yd to the Syrac 25Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 43 yds , Amir Trapp returns for 8 yds to the Clem 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 22FG8 plays · 31 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q4 13:47
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+15
99.9%
Kelly Bryant pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 15 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23INT TD12 plays · 41 yds · 3:390% → 0%
SYRDrive 24PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 3:050% → 0%
CLEMDrive 25PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:36100% → 100%
SYRDrive 26PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 1:360% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 27END OF GAME3 plays · 10 yds · 0:38100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:11
Deon Cain 65 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel PAT failed)
+1.9
TD · Q2 7:16
Mike Williams 14 Yd pass from Deshaun Watson (Greg Huegel Kick)
+1.7
TD · Q2 1:27
Artavis Scott 5 Yd pass from Nick Schuessler (Greg Huegel Kick)
+1.2