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LOU

Louisville 52 at Boston College 7

BC
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:26 · Mason King punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 80Home team on offense−31.9Pregame prior−33.5Score differential−18.4Garbage-time factor−8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:48: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +2.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:17: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:06: Blanton Creque 26 yd FG GOOD — BC win probability +1.3 pts (now 3%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:45: Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 39 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:19: Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +0.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 10:43BC 4th & 11 at BC 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:35BC 4th & 25 at BC 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:33LOU 4th & 5 at LOU 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:26BC 4th & 2 at BC 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:12BC 4th & 3 at LOU 29, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    3.1%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:41BC 4th & 4 at BC 36, down 35
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:26LOU 4th & 14 at LOU 14, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06LOU 4th & 5 at BC 9, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:13BC 4th & 8 at BC 25, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:37BC 4th & 16 at BC 14, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:37LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 29, up 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:25BC 4th & 10 at BC 24, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:07BC 4th & 12 at LOU 40, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:58LOU 4th & 8 at BC 15, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    83% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:17BC 4th & 2 at BC 28, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:43BC 4th & 7 at LOU 31, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:04LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 32, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1LOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:44LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:07LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:48LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:44LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:17LOU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:45BC Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:19LOU Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:57LOU Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0994% → 94%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
5.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
5.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+69
5.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 69 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 2:426% → 6%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
5.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q1 12:50
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-3
6.0%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+11
6.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 11 yds to the BC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
6.3%
Patrick Towles run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 33Similar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 11
OWN 33
0
6.3%
Myles Willis run for no gain to the BC 33Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
6.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 45 yds, downed at the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:2894% → 94%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
6.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
6.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
6.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 18 yds to the BC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
6.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 19 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
6.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 30 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:226% → 7%
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
6.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Davon JonesSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
6.4%
Jeff Smith run for no gain to the BC 35Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+19
6.5%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 19 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
6.7%
Jeff Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 46Similar
Q1 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-15
6.7%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Aaron Monteiro) to the BC 39Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 25
OWN 39
0
6.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Ben Glines for no gain to the BC 39Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 25
OWN 39
0
6.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Tommy SweeneySimilar
Q1 6:35
4TH & 25
OWN 39
0
6.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4794% → 93%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
6.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+3
6.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 5
OWN 20
0
6.7%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 20Similar
Q1 4:33
4TH & 5
OWN 20
0
6.9%
Mason King punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Myles Willis at the BC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 2:037% → 7%
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-15
7.2%
Towles, Patrick pass incomplete to Smith, Thadd, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference (Idrizi, Korab) 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 25
OWN 21
+13
7.1%
Myles Willis run for 13 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+10
7.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Davon Jones for 10 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
7.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for no gain to the BC 44Similar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
7.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 88 yds · 1:3093% → 95%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
7.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+15
7.0%
Jackson, Lamar pass incomplete to Samuel, Traveon, PENALTY BOSTCOLL roughing passer (Ray, Wyatt) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+17
7.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 17 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
6.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q1 0:48
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+44
4.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:375% → 5%
Q1 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
5.4%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the BC 21Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
5.4%
Thadd Smith run for no gain to the BC 21Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+9
5.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 9 yds, fumble forced by Keith Kelsey, recovered by Lvile Stacy Thomas ,return for 20 yds to the BC 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q2 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
5.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 10 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 4:055% → 4%
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
4.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the BC 42Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+4
5.0%
Jon Hilliman run for 4 yds to the BC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
5.2%
Tyler Rouse run for 2 yds to the BC 48Similar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
5.1%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+14
5.0%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 14 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
5.3%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 4
OPP 29
0
4.4%
Davon Jones pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+1
4.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Davon Jones for 1 yd to the Lvile 28Similar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
4.1%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:5096% → 98%
Q2 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
4.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
4.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+8
4.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
4.3%
Traveon Samuel run for no gain to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+38
4.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 38 yds to the BC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
4.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 8 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+5
4.0%
Jackson, Lamar pass sacked for loss of 8 yards to the BOSTCOLL17 (Kavalec, Kevin), PENALTY BOSTCOLL holding (Harris, William) 5 yards to the BOSTCOLL4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q2 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
4.0%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 5Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
4.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the BC 5Similar
Q2 6:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
2.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+20
2.5%
Patrick Towles pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for 20 yds to the BC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5698% → 98%
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
2.3%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the BC 40Similar
Q2 5:17
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
2.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+22
2.2%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted John Johnson return for 22 yds to the BC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:503% → 2%
Q2 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
2.5%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
2.4%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 32Similar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+4
2.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 4 yds to the BC 36Similar
Q2 2:41
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
2.2%
Mike Knoll punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:4498% → 98%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-9
2.1%
Kyle Bolin sacked by Kevin Kavalec for a loss of 9 yards to the Lvile 9Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 19
OWN 9
0
2.4%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 19
OWN 9
+5
2.3%
Bolin, Kyle rush for 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE14, PENALTY BOSTCOLL offside (Kavalec, Kevin) 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 14
OWN 14
0
2.0%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 14
OWN 14
0
2.1%
Mason King punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · -12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-12
2.2%
Patrick Towles sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 12 yards to the BC 28 Patrick Towles fumbled, forced by James Hearns, recovered by Lvile DeAngelo Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:0398% → 97%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
1.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 14 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
1.7%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 5 yds to the BC 9Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 5
OPP 9
0
1.7%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
1.4%
Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the BC 9Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
3.1%
Blanton Creque 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:321% → 1%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
1.2%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q3 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-1
1.1%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 25Similar
Q3 13:25
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q3 13:13
4TH & 8
OWN 25
0
1.0%
Mike Knoll punt for 35 yds, downed at the Lvile 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:3699% → 99%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
1.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+1
1.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Lvile 42 Lamar Jackson fumbled, forced by Kevin Kavalec, recovered by BC Connor StrachanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 21TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:101% → 3%
Q3 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
1.1%
Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+39
3.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 39 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:0098% → 99%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
1.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Ty Schwab for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 20Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+26
1.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 26 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 6
50
+5
1.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the BC 45Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+5
1.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
1.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 14 yds to the BC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
1.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the BC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:271% → 1%
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.7%
Tyler Rouse run for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-7
0.6%
Davon Jones run for a loss of 7 yards to the BC 14Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
0.6%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Tyler RouseSimilar
Q3 6:37
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
0.6%
Mike Knoll punt for 57 yds, downed at the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5199% → 99%
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 29Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
0.9%
Mason King punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:551% → 0%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
0.6%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 7 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 31
-1
0.5%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 30Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-6
0.4%
Patrick Towles sacked by Isaac Stewart for a loss of 6 yards to the BC 24Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 24
+7
0.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 45 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 1:16100% → 100%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
0.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
0.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+53
0.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 53 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+22
0.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
50
+1
0.3%
Jeff Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 49Similar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+11
0.2%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Charlie Callinan for 11 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
0.2%
Patrick Towles sacked by Henry Famurewa for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+3
0.2%
Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 12
OPP 40
0
0.2%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Charlie CallinanSimilar
Q4 14:07
4TH & 12
OPP 40
0
0.1%
Mike Knoll punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28MISSED FG
13 plays · 65 yds · 6:03100% → 100%
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.4%
Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
0.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 19Similar
Q4 13:17
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+17
0.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 17 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
0.3%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 35Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+25
0.3%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 25 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
0.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Devante Peete for 10 yds to the BC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
0.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the BC 29Similar
Q4 10:31
2ND & 9
OPP 29
-3
0.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 32Similar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 12
OPP 32
+15
0.2%
Bolin, Kyle pass incomplete to Bagley, Javonte, PENALTY BOSTCOLL pass interference 15 yards to the BOSTCOLL17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.Similar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
0.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Javonte Bagley for 3 yds to the BC 14Similar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-1
0.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 15Similar
Q4 8:22
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
0.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Traveon Samuel for no gain to the BC 15Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+32
0.2%
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 29FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
0.1%
Davon Jones run for 1 yd to the BC 21Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
0.1%
Richard Wilson run for 7 yds to the BC 28Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-4
0.1%
Mike Knoll punt for 34 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 34 Jaire Alexander fumbled, recovered by BC Matt MilanoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 30DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:120% → 0%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
0.1%
Richard Wilson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-1
0.1%
Richard Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
0.1%
Darius Wade pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+3
0.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Ben Glines for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
0.1%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+2
0.1%
Malik Williams run for 2 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q4 3:14
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Kyle Bolin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
0.1%
Mason King punt for 42 yds, downed at the BC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 32END OF GAME
5 plays · 29 yds · 2:280% → 0%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
0.1%
Richard Wilson run for 9 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+5
0.0%
Richard Wilson run for 5 yds to the BC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
0.1%
Richard Wilson run for 6 yds to the BC 46Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-1
0.0%
Richard Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 45Similar
Q4 0:25
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+10
0.0%
Richard Wilson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:45
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tyler Rouse for 39 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q1 0:48
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 44 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-2
TD · Q2 6:17
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-1.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com