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LOU

Louisville 32 at Virginia 25

UVA
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:01 · Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 38 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 94Pregame prior−35.2Home team on offense+4.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.4Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:38: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +18.3 pts (now 48%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:03: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +18.4 pts (now 69%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 13:47: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 10 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK) — LOU win probability +21.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:57: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds for a TD, (Kurt Benkert pass to Albert Reid for Two-Point Conversion) — UVA win probability +59.8 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:13: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 29 yds for a TD, (Lamar Jackson pass to Jaylen Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — LOU win probability +52.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:57UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:32LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:20UVA 4th & 9 at LOU 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:08LOU 4th & 5 at UVA 43, down 3
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:50UVA 4th & 3 at LOU 47, up 3
    Close callPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:34UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:21LOU 4th & 11 at LOU 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.2%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:28LOU 4th & 3 at UVA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:01LOU 4th & 20 at LOU 29, down 3
    Numbers favored punt by 2.8 ptsWent for it · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.1%−2.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:12LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 34, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:28UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 12, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.2%
    86% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−9.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:04UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 25, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−3.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:46LOU 4th & 16 at LOU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−3.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:09UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−4.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:09LOU 4th & 15 at UVA 15, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.1%−4.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−14.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:20UVA 4th & 2 at UVA 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.8%−4.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:00UVA 4th & 7 at LOU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    11.2%−4.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−6.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:55LOU 4th & 3 at midfield, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.2%−6.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:36LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:38UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:03LOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:47LOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:57UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 2.1 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.7%−2.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:13LOU Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    84.3%−1.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    85.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:494% → 5%
Q1 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
4.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
4.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 9 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
4.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
4.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+3
4.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
4.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:1795% → 95%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
4.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Kiola Mahoni) to the Lvile 4Similar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 13
OWN 4
0
4.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 13
OWN 4
+3
4.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 10
OWN 7
0
4.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 11:32
4TH & 10
OWN 7
+40
5.0%
Mason King punt for 40 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 40 yds to the Lvile 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:485% → 6%
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
5.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 10Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
5.3%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 10:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
5.5%
Sam Hayward 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:5795% → 94%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+25
5.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 25 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
5.5%
Traveon Samuel run for 5 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 5
OPP 43
0
5.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
5.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q1 9:08
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
5.8%
Mason King punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:106% → 7%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+11
5.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 11 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
6.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (James Hearns) to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
6.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 11 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
6.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 6 yds to the Lvile 48Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+1
7.1%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Lvile 47Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 47
0
7.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q1 5:50
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
7.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:4993% → 93%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
7.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 16Similar
Q1 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+37
7.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 37 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+28
7.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 28 yds to the Virg 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
7.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+15
6.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 15 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:537% → 8%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
7.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
7.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q1 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
7.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
7.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 51 yds, downed at the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:4092% → 92%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
7.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+15
7.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
7.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+2
7.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 28 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by VirgSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9TD
2 plays · 28 yds · 0:169% → 10%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
8.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 19 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
9.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 9 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 22 yds · 2:4491% → 89%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
9.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q1 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+7
9.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
9.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+9
9.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 9 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
9.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 9
50
-2
9.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 48Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 11
OWN 48
0
10.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 11
OWN 48
0
11.1%
Mason King punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11INT
8 plays · 47 yds · 4:3111% → 15%
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
10.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+17
11.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 17 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
12.6%
Kurt Benkert run for 6 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+3
13.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
13.3%
Kurt Benkert run for 2 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
14.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 12 yds to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
14.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 8:38
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+12
15.3%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Jaire Alexander return for 12 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5286% → 84%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
14.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 12 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
14.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 3 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-8
14.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 24Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+39
15.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 24 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Juwan Moye) to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
14.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
14.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 9 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OPP 28
-2
15.0%
Jeremy Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 5:28
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-10
16.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Juan Thornhill for a loss of 10 yards to the Virg 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:0118% → 21%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
17.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (R.J. Proctor) to the Virg 30Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+6
17.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 14
OWN 36
+12
17.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 12 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+10
19.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
20.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Cole BlackmanSimilar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+4
20.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 4 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+7
21.0%
Kurt Benkert run for 7 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-4
22.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 14
OPP 35
0
22.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 14
OPP 35
+12
21.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14END OF HALF
10 plays · 44 yds · 1:0777% → 72%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
22.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tobijah Hughley) to the Lvile 13Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 20
OWN 13
+26
23.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 26 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
21.7%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Geron Christian) to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 20
OWN 29
+16
23.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 16 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
21.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 0:13
3RD & 4
OWN 45
-10
21.8%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Khalil Hunter) to the Lvile 35Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 14
OWN 35
-6
26.7%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 6 yards to the Lvile 29Similar
Q2 0:01
4TH & 20
OWN 29
+38
27.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 38 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2478% → 76%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
22.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 25Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q3 13:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
23.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 4 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q3 13:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+23
24.5%
Mason King punt for 58 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 23 yds to the Virg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 3:1926% → 48%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
25.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+7
27.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 7 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
29.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
30.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Lvile 45Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OPP 45
-5
30.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Ryan Santoro) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 14
50
+41
29.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 41 yds Doni Dowling fumbled, recovered by Virg Doni Dowling for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
47.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17INT
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:1755% → 54%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
45.1%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 21 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Lvile Lamar JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+30
46.3%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Quin Blanding return for 30 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0150% → 49%
Q3 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
50.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 12Similar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 7
OPP 12
0
51.6%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Lvile 12Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
50.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
49.1%
Sam Hayward 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0250% → 69%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+21
49.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 21 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
48.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
47.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
48.1%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+10
50.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 10 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+22
50.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 22 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
49.2%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Virg 8Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
30.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 8 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:2639% → 38%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
38.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
39.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Kurt Benkert) to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
39.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q3 2:46
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+2
37.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
37.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds, downed at the Lvile 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0959% → 54%
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+20
41.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 20 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
38.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
39.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 0:53
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+16
43.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 16 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
37.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-6
38.6%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 16
50
0
43.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 16
OWN 49
+8
45.7%
Mason King punt for 37 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 8 yds to the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q4 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+25
49.2%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Jaire Alexander return for 25 yds to the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:2761% → 83%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
38.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+10
17.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 10 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 1:0924% → 23%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
24.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-2
24.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 9
OWN 24
+2
23.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 7
OWN 26
-13
22.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Eric Smith) to the Virg 13Similar
Q4 12:09
4TH & 20
OWN 13
0
22.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 46 yds, downed at the Lvile 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:3480% → 86%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
19.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 44Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+18
19.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 18 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
19.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
17.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
17.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 5 yds to the Virg 9Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+5
17.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
17.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Geron Christian) to the Virg 8Similar
Q4 8:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
18.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Micky CrumSimilar
Q4 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
16.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q4 8:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
17.3%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 8:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
13.7%
Blanton Creque 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 5:4717% → 74%
Q4 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.2%
Kurt Benkert run for 9 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
18.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 34Similar
Q4 6:33
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
17.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
17.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 32Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+9
15.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 9 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+5
17.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+5
18.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 5 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
21.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+8
22.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 8 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
22.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
22.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Lvile 34Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
19.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+30
14.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 30 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
74.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds for a TD, (Kurt Benkert pass to Albert Reid for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3638% → 96%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
61.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 18 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
58.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 3
50
0
54.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:06
3RD & 3
50
0
55.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 3
50
+5
58.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
57.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+7
56.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
4.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 29 yds for a TD, (Lamar Jackson pass to Jaylen Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -8 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
11.1%
Kurt Benkert sacked by James Hearns and Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:57
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds for a TD, (Kurt Benkert pass to Albert Reid for Two-Point Conversion)
+59.8
TD · Q4 0:13
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 29 yds for a TD, (Lamar Jackson pass to Jaylen Smith for Two-Point Conversion)
-52.5
TD · Q4 13:47
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 10 yds for a TD, (Blanton Creque KICK)
-21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com