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DUKE

Duke 35 at Georgia Tech 38

GT
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Marcus Allen run for no gain to the Duke 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+22.5+11.30−11.3−22.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense+6.5Score differential+0.7Garbage-time factor+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:31: Jela Duncan run for 1 yd for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +10.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:16: Jela Duncan run for 10 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.2 pts (now 30%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:08: Shaun Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +16.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:55: Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +32.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:38: Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 21 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +32.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 10:23DUKE 4th & 11 at GT 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:41GT 4th & 5 at GT 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00DUKE 4th & 4 at GT 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%−0.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:13GT 4th & 11 at GT 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 3:56GT 4th & 4 at GT 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−0.1
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:05DUKE 4th & 2 at GT 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    17.1%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 5:28GT 4th & 5 at DUKE 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    72.6%−7.5
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00GT 4th & 1 at DUKE 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−4.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−6.6
    average punt
  9. Q4 5:38DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:23GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:18GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:43DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:52GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:33GT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:31DUKE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:16DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 3:08DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 8:55DUKE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:38GT Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:3072% → 73%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
72.1%
Justin Thomas sacked by Corbin McCarthy for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+8
72.1%
Justin Thomas run for 8 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+50
72.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 50 yds to the Duke 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
72.1%
Marcus Marshall run for no gain to the Duke 19Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
72.1%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+18
72.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to J.J. Green for 18 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
72.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.2%
Matthew Jordan run for 2 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
72.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
72.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
72.4%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+10
72.2%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
72.2%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 45Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 11
OPP 45
0
72.3%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
72.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
72.7%
Danny Stirt punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD
4 plays · 91 yds · 1:3073% → 76%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
73.0%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the GTech 15Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+3
73.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the GTech 18Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 1
OWN 18
+82
75.9%
Justin Thomas run for 82 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
75.5%
Daniel Jones run for 13 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
75.2%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+18
75.0%
Jela Duncan run for 18 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
74.8%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the GTech 33 Jela Duncan fumbled, forced by Patrick Gamble, recovered by GTech Corey GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
77.0%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
77.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 1 yd to the GTech 38Similar
Q1 4:41
3RD & 5
OWN 38
0
77.0%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
76.7%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 49 yds , Ryan Smith returns for no gain to the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6DOWNS
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1623% → 23%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
76.7%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
76.6%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
76.3%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
76.4%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 3 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
76.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 6 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+21
76.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 21 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
75.7%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
75.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+2
76.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+2
76.6%
Parker Boehme run for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:5678% → 79%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
78.4%
Isiah Willis run for 11 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
79.1%
Marcus Marshall run for no gain to the GTech 41Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 41
-5
79.7%
Marcus Marshall run for a loss of 5 yards to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 15
OWN 36
+4
78.8%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
78.7%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 5:1322% → 30%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
77.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 14Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+12
78.0%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
77.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 9 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+10
76.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 10 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
77.1%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+7
77.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 7 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+10
76.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 10 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
76.4%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the GTech 39Similar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
76.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+14
76.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 14 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
75.7%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the GTech 23Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
70.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 23 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:4474% → 82%
Q2 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+33
74.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 33 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
82.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 46 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10FUMBLE
6 plays · 83 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
80.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 2 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
80.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q2 5:46
3RD & 8
OWN 16
+22
80.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 22 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.4%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+57
79.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 57 yds to the GTech 3 Shaun Wilson fumbled, forced by A.J. Gray, recovered by GTech Step DurhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
81.6%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the GTech 6Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+3
81.4%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the GTech 9Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 4
OWN 9
+34
80.3%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 49 yds, downed at the GATECH 42 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Parker Braun) to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 9
0
80.8%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:1521% → 19%
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
79.5%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 7 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
79.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+1
79.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 1 yd to the GTech 35Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 2
OPP 35
-3
80.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13TD
3 plays · 62 yds · 0:2786% → 95%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+40
85.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 40 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
94.7%
Justin Thomas run for 22 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 35 yds · 0:278% → 7%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
92.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
91.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Anree Saint-Amour for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+26
92.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 26 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15INT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.7%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
92.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 8 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
92.3%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
92.7%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Lawrence Austin return for no gain to the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · -3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
94.8%
Marcus Marshall run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 45 Marcus Marshall fumbled, forced by Ben Humphreys, recovered by Duke Ben HumphreysSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 1:357% → 19%
Q3 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
92.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+38
92.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 36 yds to the GTech 4 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Lamont Simmons) to the GTech 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
92.1%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the GTech 1Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.1%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) to the GTech 1Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.4%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19TD
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
70.1%
Jela Duncan run for 10 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20FG
13 plays · 78 yds · 5:4276% → 82%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
75.7%
Clinton Lynch run for 2 yds to the GTech 19Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+8
75.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 8 yds to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
76.0%
Clinton Lynch run for 11 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
77.3%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Jahaziel Lee) to the GTech 33Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+3
75.7%
Justin Thomas run for 3 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+12
75.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 12 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+50
78.2%
Marcus Marshall run for 50 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
78.8%
Matthew Jordan run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
78.8%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Brad Stewart) to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.8%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
77.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Qua SearcySimilar
Q3 5:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
82.4%
Harrison Butker 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:2019% → 39%
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.4%
Jones, D pass incomplete, PENALTY GT holding (Austin, Lan.) 10 yards to the DU35, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
80.7%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
80.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 6 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 5:28
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+13
79.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 13 yds to the GTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
78.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 31 yds to the GTech 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
77.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
61.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22DOWNS
13 plays · 58 yds · 3:0368% → 71%
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
68.0%
Marcus Marshall run for 1 yd to the GTech 11Similar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+8
67.6%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 8 yds to the GTech 19Similar
Q3 3:03
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+1
66.6%
Qua Searcy run for 1 yd to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
68.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 24 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
71.3%
Lynn Griffin run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:03
2ND & 4
50
-3
72.0%
Clinton Lynch run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+12
70.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 12 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
73.4%
Lynn Griffin run for 3 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+2
73.3%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+4
72.3%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
71.0%
Marcus Allen run for no gain to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:1633% → 72%
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
66.7%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
64.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+33
64.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for 33 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
59.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 4 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q4 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+16
59.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 16 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
59.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Zach Harmon) to the GTech 13Similar
Q4 12:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
0
60.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 12:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+6
60.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the GTech 7Similar
Q4 8:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
27.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 3:1137% → 79%
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-9
37.4%
Justin Thomas sacked by Ben Humphreys for a loss of 9 yards to the GTech 5Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 19
OWN 5
+46
35.9%
Justin Thomas run for 46 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
43.8%
Marcus Allen run for 8 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 8:49
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+17
44.1%
Qua Searcy run for 17 yds to the Duke 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
46.2%
Marcus Allen run for 3 yds to the Duke 21Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+21
79.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 21 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q4 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
67.6%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-5
68.2%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Casey Blaser) to the Duke 19Similar
Q4 5:38
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+13
68.6%
Daniel Jones run for 13 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 5:38
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
66.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Terrell LewisSimilar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
68.7%
Parker Boehme punt for 52 yds, downed at the GTech 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 26END OF GAME
15 plays · 45 yds · 2:2579% → 88%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
79.3%
DUKE Penalty, offside defense (Joe Giles-Harris) to the GTech 21Similar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 5
OWN 21
+3
79.7%
Clinton Lynch run for 3 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+4
79.8%
Marcus Allen run for 4 yds to the GTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
79.5%
Clinton Lynch run for 2 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-4
79.3%
Justin Thomas sacked by Alonzo Saxton II for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 26Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 12
OWN 26
-5
85.7%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, false start (Marcus Allen) to the GTech 21Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+50
85.8%
Justin Thomas run for 50 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-6
90.1%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 16
OPP 35
-5
89.1%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 21
OPP 40
-5
87.5%
GEORGIA TECH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 26
OPP 45
+6
87.5%
Marcus Allen run for 6 yds to the Duke 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:55
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-32.9
TD · Q4 5:38
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 21 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+32.9
TD · Q3 3:08
Shaun Wilson run for 14 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-16
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com