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VT

Virginia Tech 39 at Pittsburgh 36

PITT
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2016 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.6PITT 36.6%Joey Slye 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 9 - HOME 0 · Q2 13:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:08 · Joey Slye 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 45Home team on offense−4.7Pregame prior−8.0Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor−1.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:14: James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +13.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 0:07: Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +21.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:25: Brian O'Neill run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathan Peterman pass to James Conner for Two-Point Conversion) — PITT win probability +30.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:20: Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 16 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +15.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:31: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +30.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 11:05VT 4th & 11 at PITT 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:05VT 4th & 4 at PITT 4, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.5%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:09VT 4th & 14 at PITT 34, up 6
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:13PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 12, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:08VT 4th & 3 at PITT 5, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%−0.5
    92% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−4.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:17PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 39, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:15VT 4th & 15 at PITT 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:00VT 4th & 9 at PITT 9, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.7%
    89% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−11.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:47PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−3.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:44VT 4th & 9 at PITT 20, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−1.8
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−10.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:44PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:39VT 4th & 2 at PITT 5, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%−4.7
    92% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−26.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:51PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 27, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%−1.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:43PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 23, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:03VT 4th & 18 at PITT 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−1.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 4:14PITT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:00VT Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:14PITT Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:27PITT Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:07VT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:25PITT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    44.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:20VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.6
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:31PITT Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.8%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1FUMBLE
12 plays · 76 yds · 3:4461% → 60%
Q1 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
39.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+11
39.2%
Cam Phillips run for 11 yds to the VTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
39.2%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+27
39.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 27 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
39.3%
Jerod Evans run for 15 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+24
39.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 24 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
39.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
39.5%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the Pitt 13Similar
Q1 12:03
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-5
39.8%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, False Start (Jonathan McLaughlin) to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 15
OPP 18
+4
40.1%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
40.0%
Joey Slye 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:4560% → 60%
Q1 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
39.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 5 yds to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
39.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Sam RogersSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+7
39.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 7 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
39.8%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
39.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
40.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 4Similar
Q1 8:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
39.9%
Joey Slye 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3INT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:3140% → 40%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
40.0%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 14Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 14
-5
39.9%
Peterman, Nathan pass complete to Henderson, Quadree for 27 yards to the PITTSBURGH41, PENALTY PITTSBURGH ineligible downfield on pass (Johnson, Dorian) 5 yards to the PITTSBURGH9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:55
2ND & 15
OWN 9
+6
39.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 6 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+1
39.7%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Mook Reynolds return for 1 yd to the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0561% → 60%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
39.3%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
39.3%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 11
OPP 31
-3
39.1%
Jerod Evans sacked by Shakir Soto and Quintin Wirginis for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 14
OPP 34
0
40.2%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 25 yds, downed at the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 2:3940% → 39%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-3
39.8%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 6Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 13
OWN 6
-3
39.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Dorian Johnson) to the Pitt 3Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 16
OWN 3
-2
39.9%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 18
OWN 1
0
39.5%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Alex Bookser) to the Pitt 1Similar
Q1 2:47
3RD & 18
OWN 1
+11
39.5%
James Conner run for 11 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 7
OWN 12
+3
39.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 42 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 3:5762% → 63%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
38.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 2 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 8
OPP 49
0
38.2%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 1:36
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+5
38.4%
Evans, Jerod pass pass intended for Ford, Isaiah intercepted by Wirginis, Quintin at the PITTSBURGH42, Wirginis, Quintin return 0 yards to the PITTSBURGH42, PENALTY PITTSBURGH offside (Briggs, Dennis) 5 yards to the PITTSBURGH44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:06
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+9
38.3%
Cam Phillips run for 9 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
38.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+26
38.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 26 yds to the Pitt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
37.8%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+4
37.8%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
37.2%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the Pitt 5Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+22
36.6%
Joey Slye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:4236% → 35%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
36.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+5
36.7%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
36.5%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+5
35.6%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q2 10:34
3RD & 9
OWN 39
0
35.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott Orndoff, broken up by Terrell EdmundsSimilar
Q2 10:17
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
34.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds , Greg Stroman returns for no gain to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:5463% → 64%
Q2 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+36
36.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 36 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
35.0%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 9
OPP 42
-6
35.0%
Jerod Evans sacked by Tyrique Jarrett for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 15
OPP 48
0
36.3%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
36.3%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:5134% → 49%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
34.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 2
OWN 24
+4
35.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 4 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
35.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 4 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
34.4%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+12
33.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 12 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+37
35.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 37 yds to the VTech 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
36.9%
Tre Tipton pass complete to Nathan Peterman for 11 yds to the VTech 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
48.7%
James Conner run for 6 yds for a TD (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:0157% → 72%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
42.6%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+18
42.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 18 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
40.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 18 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
40.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
39.8%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Ryan LewisSimilar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+15
39.6%
Evans, Jerod pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Lewis, Ryan) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH21, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+10
37.9%
Jerod Evans run for 10 yds to the Pitt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
28.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 11 yds for a TD (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:2931% → 49%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+71
31.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 71 yds to the VTech 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
35.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q2 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
35.4%
Nathan Peterman run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 12 Nathan Peterman fumbled, forced by Andrew Motuapuaka, recovered by Pitt Alex OfficerSimilar
Q2 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+10
33.4%
Peterman, Nathan pass incomplete to Weah, Jester, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Stroman, Greg) 10 yards to the VATECH2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
35.4%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the VTech 1Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-2
39.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2544% → 62%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
44.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
50
+2
48.0%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
48.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 6 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+37
48.0%
James Conner run for 37 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
49.6%
George Aston run for 4 yds to the VTech 1Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
49.8%
James Conner run for no gain to the VTech 1Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.2%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:1343% → 47%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
57.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 5 yds to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+15
56.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 15 yds to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
55.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 8 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+6
53.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 6 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
53.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 2 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+13
54.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 13 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
52.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+23
53.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 23 yds to the Pitt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
52.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 8:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
52.6%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 8Similar
Q3 7:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
54.5%
Jerod Evans sacked by Quintin Wirginis for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 9Similar
Q3 7:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
53.2%
Joey Slye 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0456% → 54%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
55.7%
Nathan Peterman run for 22 yds to the Pitt 47 Nathan Peterman fumbled, forced by Andrew Motuapuaka, recovered by Pitt Nathan Peterman for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
59.4%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
57.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+1
55.5%
Dontez Ford run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 12
OWN 45
+20
54.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 45 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 20 yds to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16FG
8 plays · 50 yds · 1:5846% → 56%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.5%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
55.1%
Brenden Motley run for 8 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+15
52.3%
Motley, Brenden pass incomplete to Ford, Isaiah, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Jackson, Dane) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
50.8%
Isaiah Ford run for 26 yds to the Pitt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:28
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
49.1%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
49.5%
Brenden Motley pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+1
51.5%
Brenden Motley run for 1 yd to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
44.3%
Joey Slye 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5547% → 44%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.7%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
46.4%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 1:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
45.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q3 1:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
43.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 10 yds to the VTech 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 18TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 1:2856% → 80%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
44.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 20 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
41.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 1 yd to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+10
41.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+35
41.1%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 35 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
19.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3524% → 60%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+40
24.1%
James Conner run for 40 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
30.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Adam Bisnowaty) to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 15
OPP 40
-3
26.6%
James Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 43Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 18
OPP 43
+15
25.6%
Peterman, Nathan pass incomplete to Aston, George, PENALTY VATECH pass interference (Edmunds, Terrell) 15 yards to the VATECH28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PITTSBURGH.Similar
Q4 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
29.4%
James Conner run for 23 yds to the VTech 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
60.1%
Brian O'Neill run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathan Peterman pass to James Conner for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 20FG
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:4151% → 68%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q4 13:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+31
49.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 31 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
44.2%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
44.3%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 11:58
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+10
45.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 10 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
42.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 17 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
42.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
42.1%
Jerod Evans run for 6 yds to the Pitt 7Similar
Q4 10:18
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+2
44.2%
Cam Phillips run for 2 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
31.7%
Joey Slye 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3639% → 35%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
38.6%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
38.0%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+3
36.8%
Nathan Peterman run for 3 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
35.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 30 yds, downed at the VTech 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:2271% → 89%
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+41
29.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 41 yds to the Pitt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
26.3%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam Phillips, broken up by Terrish WebbSimilar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
11.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 16 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:2714% → 10%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
13.7%
Peterman, Nathan pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH holding (Bisnowaty, Adam) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:02
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-1
13.2%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 14Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+9
11.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 9 yds to the Pitt 23Similar
Q4 5:51
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
10.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott Orndoff, broken up by Anthony ShegogSimilar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
10.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3190% → 89%
Q4 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
10.3%
Cam Phillips run for 20 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
9.8%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
9.7%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to C.J. CarrollSimilar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 10
OPP 39
-3
10.2%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 42Similar
Q4 4:10
4TH & 13
OPP 42
-5
10.9%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 18
OPP 47
0
10.6%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 90 yds · 1:2710% → 42%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+19
9.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 19 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+32
10.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 32 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
11.4%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Alex Bookser) to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 15
OPP 44
+18
10.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 18 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
11.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree Henderson, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q4 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+19
10.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 19 yds to the VTech 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
11.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Ricky WalkerSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 16 yds · 2:2280% → 93%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
20.4%
Brenden Motley run for 4 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+5
18.5%
Brenden Motley run for 5 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+1
18.3%
Cam Phillips run for 1 yd to the VTech 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
11.9%
Brenden Motley run for 2 yds to the VTech 30Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+1
11.1%
Brenden Motley run for 1 yd to the VTech 31Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+3
6.9%
Brenden Motley run for 3 yds to the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:25
Brian O'Neill run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nathan Peterman pass to James Conner for Two-Point Conversion)
+30.7
TD · Q4 2:31
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+30.2
TD · Q3 0:07
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds for a TD (Joey Slye KICK)
-21.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com