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UNC

North Carolina 35 at Virginia 14

UVA
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Scott Stadium
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Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:01 · Nicholas Conte punt for 54 yds, downed at the NCaro 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+53.5+26.80−26.8−53.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 183Home team on offense−47.8Pregame prior−1.4Score differential−27.5Garbage-time factor−16.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−9.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:27: Evan Butts 11 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Sam Hayward Kick) — UVA win probability +10.0 pts (now 43%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:52: Bug Howard 40 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +10.4 pts (now 73%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:39: Thomas Jackson 10 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +10.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:31: T.J. Logan 4 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick) — UNC win probability +7.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:01: Taquan Mizzell 1 Yd Run (Sam Hayward Kick) — UVA win probability +7.4 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 11 of 14UNC made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:02UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 29.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:15UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:32UVA 4th & 14 at UVA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:00UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:35UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 18, tied
    Close callPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:56UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:11UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:18UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:07UVA 4th & 1 at UNC 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    29.3%−2.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    28.5%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:27UVA 4th & 3 at UNC 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.7%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:57UVA 4th & 16 at UNC 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−2.0
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−4.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:23UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:31UVA 4th & 9 at UNC 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    28.0%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:45UNC 4th & 5 at UVA 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.2%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    72.5%−0.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−1.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:24UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:55UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 21, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:14UVA 4th & 2 at UNC 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    3.0%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−2.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:39UVA 4th & 25 at UVA 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:50UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 33, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:01UVA 4th & 16 at UVA 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:16UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:18UVA 4th & 19 at UNC 47, down 21
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 0:33UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:27UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:52UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:39UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:31UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:01UVA Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:30UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5029% → 30%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
29.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 13 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
29.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+4
30.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 4
OWN 47
0
30.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:02
4TH & 4
OWN 47
0
30.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3770% → 69%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
30.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 18Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+5
30.3%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 23Similar
Q1 11:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
30.8%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 11:15
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
31.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:3631% → 31%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
31.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-15
31.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Keeon Johnson) to the Virg 24Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 20
OWN 24
0
31.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 20
OWN 24
+6
31.3%
Kurt Benkert run for 6 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 14
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 49 yds, downed at the NCaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:2368% → 68%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
31.7%
Elijah Hood run for 14 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
31.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Illegal Block (Bug Howard) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q1 8:40
1ST & 9
OWN 36
-3
31.6%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 7:40
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+5
32.3%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+6
32.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 44Similar
Q1 7:00
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
32.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1433% → 33%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
32.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 10Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
33.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+8
32.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 1
OWN 18
0
32.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 44 yds, downed at the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:0067% → 67%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
33.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
50
+5
32.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+5
32.8%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
32.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 16 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
32.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
32.8%
T.J. Logan run for 13 yds to the Virg 1 T.J. Logan fumbled, forced by Juan Thornhill, recovered by Virg Bryce HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1234% → 34%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
34.4%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 2Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
34.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 5
OWN 6
0
34.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 5
OWN 6
0
34.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 23 yds, downed at the Virg 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:1867% → 71%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
32.9%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
32.9%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Virg 11Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-15
33.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Brandon Fritts NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (William Sweet) to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 0:55
3RD & 22
OPP 26
+22
34.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 22 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
28.9%
Elijah Hood 4 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
Q1 0:33
1ST & 0
OPP 3
+2
28.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1831% → 30%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
30.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 10 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
30.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 5 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+1
31.6%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 14:19
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
31.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
30.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4770% → 69%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
30.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 16 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
29.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
29.3%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-4
29.4%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Landan Word for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
31.0%
Tom Sheldon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
15 plays · 73 yds · 6:2931% → 43%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
30.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 13 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
31.9%
Olamide Zaccheaus run for 5 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+3
32.4%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+11
32.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Albert Reid for 11 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
33.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 9 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 1
OPP 32
0
33.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
32.7%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
32.9%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
34.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Ryan Santoro for 8 yds to the NCaro 21Similar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+3
34.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
34.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 3 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
34.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+3
33.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+11
43.2%
Evan Butts 11 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Sam Hayward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 2:2361% → 73%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
38.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+14
39.0%
Elijah Hood run for 14 yds to the NCaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
38.5%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
38.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 4:05
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+12
39.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 12 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
37.0%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-5
36.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (William Sweet) to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+6
37.3%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+5
37.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
26.9%
Bug Howard 40 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13MISSED FG
9 plays · 13 yds · 1:2434% → 30%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
33.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+16
33.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 16 yds to the NCaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
35.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 15
OPP 27
-5
33.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Jake Fieler) to the NCaro 32Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 20
OPP 32
0
33.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 20
OPP 32
+4
32.0%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
30.3%
Sam Hayward 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:2772% → 71%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
28.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
27.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
27.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 0:29
3RD & 10
OWN 38
0
28.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
29.4%
Tom Sheldon punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -9 yds · 0:0331% → 30%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
30.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the Virg 34 VIRGINIA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Eric Smith) to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 16
OWN 19
-3
30.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:1372% → 74%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
28.0%
Elijah Hood run for 13 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
26.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 22 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-5
25.6%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 15
OPP 47
+2
26.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds Ryan Switzer fumbled, forced by Micah Kiser, recovered by Virg Micah KiserSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 2:0032% → 29%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
31.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+11
30.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 11 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
32.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q3 12:24
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-1
32.5%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 39Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 5
OPP 39
-4
32.1%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 9
OPP 43
+37
28.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 11 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the NCaro 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
12 plays · 94 yds · 3:5272% → 87%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+15
28.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
27.9%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 10:34
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
26.5%
Khris Francis run for 1 yd to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 10:20
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+9
26.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 9 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
25.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 12 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
25.2%
Elijah Hood run for 9 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+6
25.0%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+18
27.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 18 yds to the Virg 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
23.8%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
23.8%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
12.9%
Thomas Jackson 10 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19FUMBLE
13 plays · 16 yds · 3:5215% → 14%
Q3 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
15.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
15.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
15.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+4
16.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
15.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Brendan Marshall for 5 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+6
15.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
16.4%
VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 5:15
1ST & 15
OPP 48
-2
15.8%
Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 17
50
0
14.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:42
3RD & 17
50
-9
13.8%
Kurt Benkert run for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 41 Kurt Benkert fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 2:0789% → 98%
Q3 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
11.0%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
10.8%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+6
9.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 6 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
9.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
9.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 14 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.4%
T.J. Logan 4 Yd Run (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:504% → 4%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
3.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 6 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
3.9%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
3.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
3.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 48 yds, downed at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:2598% → 98%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
2.5%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
2.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 14:28
3RD & 1
OWN 26
-5
2.4%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 13:55
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
2.5%
Tom Sheldon punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23TD
14 plays · 53 yds · 4:433% → 10%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
3.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 7
50
+9
2.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+8
2.6%
Albert Reid run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 12:27
2ND & 2
OPP 33
+4
2.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
2.6%
Connor Brewer pass complete to Brendan Marshall for 3 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 11:27
2ND & 7
OPP 26
-1
2.6%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
2.3%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+15
2.2%
Brewer, Connor pass incomplete to Mizzell, Taquan, PENALTY UNC pass interference 15 yards to the UNC12, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VIRGINIA.Similar
Q4 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
2.4%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
2.3%
Joe Reed run for 3 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
2.3%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 9:14
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+3
2.2%
Connor Brewer pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 3 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.6%
Taquan Mizzell 1 Yd Run (Sam Hayward Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
3 plays · 57 yds · 0:1895% → 99%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
5.2%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
1.2%
Austin Proehl 46 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:402% → 2%
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.7%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+12
1.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 12 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
1.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Taquan Mizzell) to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 7:59
1ST & 25
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to David EldridgeSimilar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 25
OWN 25
0
1.6%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 25
OWN 25
0
1.6%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 25
OWN 25
+5
1.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 56 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2899% → 99%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
1.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Josh Cabrera for 5 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
1.3%
Jordon Brown run for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 1
OWN 33
0
1.3%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
0.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:231% → 1%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+13
1.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 13 yds to the Virg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
1.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 5:18
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+6
1.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
1.0%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Evan ButtsSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-6
1.0%
Connor Brewer sacked by Marlon Dunlap for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 16
OWN 45
0
0.9%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 16
OWN 45
0
0.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 54 yds, downed at the NCaro 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
0.8%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
0.7%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 5Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
0.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
0.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:441% → 1%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
0.8%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-9
0.8%
Connor Brewer sacked by Andre Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 47Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 19
OPP 47
0
0.8%
Connor Brewer pass incomplete to Ryan SantoroSimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 19
OPP 47
0
0.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 38 yds, downed at the NCaro 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:33100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
0.5%
Jordon Brown run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 0:27
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
0.4%
Jordon Brown run for no gain to the NCaro 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:52
Bug Howard 40 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)
-10.4
TD · Q3 7:39
Thomas Jackson 10 Yd pass from Mitch Trubisky (Nick Weiler Kick)
-10.2
TD · Q2 5:27
Evan Butts 11 Yd pass from Matt Johns (Sam Hayward Kick)
+10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com