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MIA

Miami 16 at Virginia Tech 37

VT
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2016 · Lane Stadium
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Win probability · VT
modelVT aheadMIA aheadconfidence bandkey playVT scoreMIA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:50 · Justin Vogel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the MiaFl 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense−0.5Pregame prior+6.1Score differential−1.4Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:51: Bucky Hodges 7 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +8.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:19: Braxton Berrios 25 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley PAT failed) — MIA win probability +12.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:01: Bucky Hodges 12 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +10.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:57: Christopher Herndon IV 35 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick) — MIA win probability +14.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:01: Steven Peoples 13 Yd pass from Sam Rogers (Joey Slye Kick) — VT win probability +9.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
VT made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MIA made the numbers' call on 7 of 11
  1. Q1 13:25MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45VT 4th & 7 at MIA 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.2%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45MIA 4th & 14 at VT 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    35.8%−0.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:41VT 4th & 7 at VT 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.5%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:42MIA 4th & 4 at VT 12, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%−0.2
    86% to make
    Punt
    34.0%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52VT 4th & 11 at VT 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:53VT 4th & 7 at VT 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.8%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:50MIA 4th & 11 at MIA 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:35VT 4th & 9 at MIA 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.3%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−3.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:42MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:12MIA 4th & 1 at MIA 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:28VT 4th & 2 at MIA 21, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%−0.4
    74% to make
    Punt
    69.6%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:29VT 4th & 8 at VT 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.3%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:35MIA 4th & 6 at MIA 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:14MIA 4th & 19 at MIA 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.9%−2.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:50VT 4th & 10 at MIA 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.7
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:44MIA 4th & 14 at MIA 3, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−1.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:22VT 4th & 1 at MIA 25, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%−1.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−4.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:51MIA 4th & 20 at VT 25, down 14
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.4%−1.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−2.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:52MIA 4th & 12 at MIA 39, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 5:51VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:19MIA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    29.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:01VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:57MIA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:01VT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:45VT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:2541% → 41%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
59.0%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-6
59.0%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Trevon Hill and Woody Baron for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+6
59.1%
Mark Walton run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
59.2%
Justin Vogel punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 2FG
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:2559% → 60%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
59.1%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
59.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the VTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
59.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 11 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
59.5%
Travon McMillian run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
59.6%
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
59.6%
Jerod Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 9
OPP 32
+2
59.5%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
59.7%
Joey Slye 47 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:4040% → 40%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
59.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
59.4%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 8 yds Christopher Herndon IV fumbled, forced by Brandon Facyson, recovered by MiaFl for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
59.5%
Mark Walton run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+12
59.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 12 yds to the VTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
59.2%
Brad Kaaya run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+1
59.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 1 yd to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 7
OPP 36
-7
59.4%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Ricky Walker and Vinny Mihota for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 14
OPP 43
0
60.4%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, downed at the VTech 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:4960% → 60%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
59.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 7 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+14
59.9%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 11 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Kendrick Norton) to the VTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
60.0%
Cam Phillips run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 5:28
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+20
59.9%
Jerod Evans run for 20 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
60.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 3 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
60.9%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 7
OWN 48
0
60.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
59.8%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 42 yds , Braxton Berrios returns for no gain to the MiaFl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5FG
9 plays · 78 yds · 2:4939% → 42%
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
60.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+2
60.4%
Joseph Yearby run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+48
60.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 48 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
59.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Dayall Harris for 13 yds to the VTech 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
58.9%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Tyree St. Louis) to the VTech 23Similar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 15
OPP 23
0
58.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 15
OPP 23
+11
58.9%
Joseph Yearby run for 11 yds to the VTech 12Similar
Q1 1:46
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
58.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Ahmmon RichardsSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 4
OPP 12
+29
57.6%
Michael Badgley 29 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:3959% → 58%
Q1 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
59.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 15 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
60.1%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-6
59.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 4 yds to the VTech 44 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Bucky Hodges) to the VTech 34Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 16
OWN 34
-4
59.1%
Jerod Evans sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 30Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 30
+9
58.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 9 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 11
OWN 39
0
58.3%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:1942% → 41%
Q2 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
58.2%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 13:57
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
58.6%
Brad Kaaya pass intercepted Terrell Edmunds return for no gain to the VTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3460% → 59%
Q2 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
60.0%
Jerod Evans sacked by RJ McIntosh for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 35Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+6
59.1%
Jerod Evans run for 6 yds to the VTech 41Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
59.4%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
58.7%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Braxton Berrios at the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4042% → 41%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-7
58.2%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Linder) to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 17
OWN 6
+11
58.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 11 yds to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q2 11:39
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
58.0%
Mark Walton run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 20Similar
Q2 11:20
3RD & 3
OWN 20
-8
58.6%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Tremaine Edmunds for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q2 10:50
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
59.5%
Justin Vogel punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the MiaFl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 10FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:5061% → 61%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+34
61.4%
Travon McMillian run for 34 yds to the MiaFl 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
61.9%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 9
OPP 10
-9
62.2%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 4 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 18
OPP 19
0
61.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Cam PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:52
3RD & 18
OPP 19
+9
60.2%
Jerod Evans run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
61.4%
Joey Slye 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3239% → 37%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
61.3%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-6
61.6%
Joseph Yearby run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 17Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+14
62.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 14 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 6:42
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
62.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 54 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 2 yds to the VTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 83 yds · 0:3962% → 72%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
61.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 9 yds to the VTech 26 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Courtel Jenkins) to the VTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
63.4%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 52 yds to the MiaFl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
72.0%
Bucky Hodges 7 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1230% → 29%
Q2 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.2%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
69.2%
Mark Walton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 4:26
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.1%
Mark Walton run for no gain to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 4:12
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.0%
Justin Vogel punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 14FG
12 plays · 51 yds · 2:3271% → 80%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
71.2%
C.J. Carroll run for 9 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
73.0%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+20
73.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 20 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
74.2%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q2 2:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+2
74.3%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+9
73.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 9 yds to the MiaFl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
75.0%
Travon McMillian run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 14
OPP 33
+7
74.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 7 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+5
74.1%
Jerod Evans run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q2 1:28
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
80.0%
Joey Slye 38 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:0221% → 34%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+39
79.0%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 39 yds to the VTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
76.4%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-4
76.6%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Woody Baron for a loss of 4 yards to the VTech 40Similar
Q2 0:42
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+15
78.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 15 yds to the VTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
66.1%
Braxton Berrios 25 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:2571% → 70%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
70.5%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 12 yds to the VTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-11
71.8%
Isaiah Ford run for a loss of 11 yards to the VTech 26Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 21
OWN 26
+2
70.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 2 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 19
OWN 28
+11
69.6%
Travon McMillian run for 11 yds to the VTech 39Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
69.5%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 53 yds, downed at the MiaFl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4829% → 27%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
70.8%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Braxton BerriosSimilar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+4
71.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 4 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 11:47
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
72.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Dayall HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:35
4TH & 6
OWN 12
-3
72.7%
Justin Vogel punt for 55 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 3 yards to the VTech 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 0:5972% → 85%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
72.0%
Travon McMillian run for 20 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Personal Foul (Jamal Carter Sr.) to the MiaFl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
74.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 18 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
75.2%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+12
85.4%
Bucky Hodges 12 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:3317% → 33%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.2%
Joseph Yearby run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
82.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to David Njoku for 9 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
82.6%
Joseph Yearby run for no gain to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 8:35
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
82.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+28
84.1%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Ahmmon Richards for 28 yds to the VTech 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
80.9%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
66.8%
Christopher Herndon IV 35 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2976% → 90%
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.0%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+20
76.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 20 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
78.6%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-1
78.7%
Jerod Evans sacked by Kendrick Norton and Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 9
50
+11
77.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 11 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
79.4%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+5
79.5%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+13
79.8%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 13 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
89.6%
Steven Peoples 13 Yd pass from Sam Rogers (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 3:1213% → 10%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.3%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 4 yds to the MiaFl 29Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+9
86.7%
Mark Walton run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
86.2%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to David NjokuSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
86.9%
Mark Walton run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+9
86.8%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 9 yds to the VTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-9
86.1%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Woody Baron for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 0:47
2ND & 19
OWN 42
0
88.7%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Braxton Berrios for no gain to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & 19
OWN 42
0
89.0%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Christopher Herndon IVSimilar
Q3 0:14
4TH & 19
OWN 42
0
90.1%
Justin Vogel punt for 40 yds, downed at the VTech 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:1092% → 93%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
92.3%
Marshawn Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 17Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+16
92.0%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 16 yds to the VTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
92.8%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q4 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
93.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+8
92.9%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Isaiah Ford for 8 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
93.6%
Jerod Evans run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
93.7%
Sam Rogers run for no gain to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 12:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
94.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
93.8%
Jerod Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
93.2%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 36 yds, downed at the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:449% → 7%
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-2
91.4%
Mark Walton run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+7
91.6%
Mark Walton run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q4 10:11
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-9
92.2%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Vinny Mihota for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 3Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 14
OWN 3
+6
92.6%
Justin Vogel punt for 37 yds , Greg Stroman returns for 6 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25MISSED FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1795% → 95%
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.2%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q4 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+7
95.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+2
95.2%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+42
94.9%
Joey Slye 42 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jaquan JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:248% → 4%
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
91.9%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Stacy Coley for 8 yds to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+41
91.5%
Joseph Yearby run for 41 yds to the VTech 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
90.6%
Joseph Yearby run for 1 yd to the VTech 14Similar
Q4 6:55
2ND & 9
OPP 14
-5
91.4%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Tyree St. Louis) to the VTech 19Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
92.3%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Joseph YearbySimilar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 14
OPP 19
-6
93.2%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Tremaine Edmunds for a loss of 6 yards to the VTech 25Similar
Q4 5:51
4TH & 20
OPP 25
0
96.1%
Brad Kaaya pass incomplete to Stacy ColeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:1897% → 100%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
97.0%
Travon McMillian run for 22 yds to the VTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
97.3%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+14
97.7%
Jerod Evans run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.0%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
98.0%
Marshawn Williams run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+34
99.6%
Jerod Evans 34 Yd Run (Joey Slye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:231% → 0%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
99.5%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Malcolm Lewis for 16 yds to the MiaFl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
99.5%
Brad Kaaya sacked by Vinny Mihota for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+6
99.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Mark Walton for 6 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 12
OWN 39
0
99.6%
Brad Kaaya pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+3
99.6%
Brad Kaaya pass complete to Christopher Herndon IV for 3 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-1
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:57
Christopher Herndon IV 35 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley Kick)
-14.1
TD · Q2 0:19
Braxton Berrios 25 Yd pass from Brad Kaaya (Michael Badgley PAT failed)
-12.7
TD · Q3 10:01
Bucky Hodges 12 Yd pass from Jerod Evans (Joey Slye Kick)
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com