Try the model
PITT

Pittsburgh 45 at Virginia 31

UVA
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Scott Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UVA
modelUVA aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playUVA scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:47 · Nicholas Conte punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+48.0+24.00−24.0−48.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 152Home team on offense−28.5Score differential−12.4Pregame prior−2.2Garbage-time factor−9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:51: Taquan Mizzell run for 44 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +5.9 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:35: Dylan Sims kickoff for 58 yds , Quadree Henderson return for 93 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +5.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:57: Albert Reid run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +10.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:40: James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +11.9 pts (now 62%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:04: Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Whitehead return for 59 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +16.8 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UVA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at PITT 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    38.2%−0.3
    25% to make
    Punt
    38.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:31PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 58.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:03UVA 4th & 8 at UVA 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:16PITT 4th & 1 at UVA 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.8%−2.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−8.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:48PITT 4th & 9 at UVA 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.7
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    76.2%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:48UVA 4th & 29 at UVA 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:01PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:00UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:00PITT 4th & 1 at UVA 44, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.5 ptsPunted · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−5.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%−3.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 43, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:47UVA 4th & 5 at UVA 30, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:41PITT 4th & 2 at PITT 40, up 14
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:36UVA 4th & 29 at UVA 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:21PITT 4th & 6 at UVA 6, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    93.0%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:21UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 41, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:04UVA 4th & 10 at PITT 18, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    2.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UVA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 10:31UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:41PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:51UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:35PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:48UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:08PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:57UVA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:40PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:04PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 4:2936% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
36.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
36.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+6
36.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
36.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+4
36.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, substitution infraction (4 Yards) to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+2
36.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
36.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+25
36.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Joe Reed for 25 yds to the Pitt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
36.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 9
+4
36.3%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Pitt 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
36.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
36.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
36.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Terrish WebbSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+5
36.3%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
40.0%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0061% → 60%
Q1 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
39.5%
Jordan Whitehead run for 3 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q1 10:31
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+4
39.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 4 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
39.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q1 10:31
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+1
39.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 49 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 1 yd to the Virg 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
40.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 2 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
40.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 9:03
3RD & 8
OWN 26
0
40.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 9:03
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
40.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 2:0758% → 61%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
41.6%
Qadree Ollison run for no gain to the Pitt 29Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+16
41.7%
James Conner run for 16 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
41.2%
Peterman, N. pass incomplete to Mathews, A., PENALTY VA pass interference (Thornhill, J) 15 yards to the VA40, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
40.9%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
40.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+38
38.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 38 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5040% → 47%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
39.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 4 yds to the Virg 29Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
39.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Terrish WebbSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
39.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 9 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
40.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
40.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:41
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+16
39.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Albert Reid for 16 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
40.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 44Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+44
46.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 44 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7TD
3 plays · 78 yds · 0:4741% → 46%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
41.0%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+74
46.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 74 yds for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0054% → 53%
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
45.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q1 1:48
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
45.9%
Maurice Ffrench run for 4 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 1:48
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
46.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 6
OWN 21
0
46.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3647% → 47%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
47.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 34Similar
Q1 0:36
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+2
47.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
47.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+17
46.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 26 , Quadree Henderson returns for 17 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 5:3253% → 60%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
47.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 32
-10
46.6%
Tipton, T. rush for loss of 1 yard to the UP31 (Blanding, Q), PENALTY UP holding (Weah, J.) 10 yards to the UP22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 14
OWN 22
+7
47.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 7 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OWN 29
+14
47.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 14 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
46.4%
Chawntez Moss run for 2 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+15
45.9%
Peterman, N. pass incomplete to Weah, J. (Hall, B), PENALTY VA pass interference (Hall, B) 15 yards to the VA40, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+16
45.6%
Chawntez Moss run for 16 yds to the Virg 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
44.7%
Chawntez Moss run for no gain to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
44.8%
Tre Tipton run for 3 yds to the Virg 21 Tre Tipton fumbled, forced by Micah Kiser, recovered by Pitt Tre TiptonSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+20
45.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 20 yds to the Virg 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
44.7%
James Conner run for no gain to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.7%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:1145% → 58%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
44.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+5
44.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
44.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 6 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
45.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 19 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
46.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+9
46.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 9 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+15
46.5%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Levrone, A, PENALTY UP pass interference (Lewis, R.) 15 yards to the UP20, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
47.3%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Eldridge, D, PENALTY UP pass interference (Motley, P.) 15 yards to the UP5, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
47.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.8%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
14 plays · 26 yds · 5:1750% → 62%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
50.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+1
49.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 1 yd to the Virg 23Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+6
51.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 6 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q2 5:16
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
52.3%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
49.8%
Tre Tipton run for 5 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+3
49.8%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 5:16
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
51.2%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Virg 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
49.8%
Peterman, N. pass incomplete to Parrish, J., PENALTY VA pass interference (Blanding, Q) 3 yards to the VA2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
49.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
49.8%
Henderson, Q. rush for loss of 4 yards to the VA11 (Peace, C;Rainey, K), PENALTY VA face mask (Rainey, K) 4 yards to the VA3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
49.8%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 0:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.9%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 13INT TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:3647% → 31%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
47.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 12 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
49.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
48.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+59
31.4%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Whitehead return for 59 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 15Uncategorized
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
22.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16MISSED FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 5:1278% → 82%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+24
21.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 24 yds to the Pitt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
20.6%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
20.6%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Virg 48Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+4
20.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 4 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
20.4%
Chawntez Moss run for no gain to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
20.5%
Nathan Peterman run for 8 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+6
20.7%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
20.2%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Virg 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
20.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Qadree OllisonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
20.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Tre Tipton, broken up by Andrew BrownSimilar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+47
17.6%
Chris Blewitt 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
19.4%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+6
19.6%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
20.3%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-4
20.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Shakir Soto and Ejuan Price for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 9:48
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
19.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to David Eldridge, broken up by Phillipie MotleySimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 14
OWN 37
-15
18.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Bam Bradley for a loss of 15 yards to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 9:48
4TH & 29
OWN 22
0
18.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 46 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for no gain to the Pitt 32 Quadree Henderson fumbled, recovered by Pitt Quadree HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
15.1%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
14.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:01
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
15.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester Weah, broken up by Quin BlandingSimilar
Q3 7:01
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+18
15.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 52 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 18 yds to the Virg 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
17.2%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Rori Blair for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
16.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 15
OWN 25
+13
16.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 13 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 2
OWN 38
-5
17.7%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 7
OWN 33
0
16.7%
Nicholas Conte punt for 37 yds, downed at the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 3:3786% → 88%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
13.9%
Chawntez Moss run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+5
14.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 5 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+11
13.7%
Nathan Peterman run for 11 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
13.0%
Chawntez Moss run for 6 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
12.5%
Tre Tipton run for 2 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
13.1%
Chawntez Moss run for 1 yd to the Virg 44Similar
Q3 1:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
0
11.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:4913% → 14%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
13.0%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
12.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 12 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
13.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 9 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 43
0
14.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to David EldridgeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
14.2%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
14.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 22TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 3:5591% → 94%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
9.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 16 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
9.2%
Jordan Whitehead run for 9 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+20
8.1%
James Conner run for 20 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+16
8.4%
Jordan Whitehead run for 16 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
7.9%
James Conner run for 17 yds to the Virg 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
7.8%
James Conner run for no gain to the Virg 3Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
7.9%
James Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 5Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
5.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
8.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 1 yd to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
8.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
9.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
8.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
5.9%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
5.8%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
5.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to James Conner, broken up by Zach BradshawSimilar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
6.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 52 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for no gain to the Virg 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:305% → 5%
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
5.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+22
5.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 22 yds to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
5.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-5
5.5%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (Olamide Zaccheaus) to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 15
OWN 25
0
5.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Warren CraftSimilar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 15
OWN 25
-14
5.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete VIRGINIA Penalty, intentional grounding (Kurt Benkert) to the Virg 11Similar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 29
OWN 11
+29
5.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 57 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 29 yds to the Virg 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 26FG
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:4796% → 98%
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
3.6%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for 4 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+12
3.2%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for 12 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
3.2%
Maurice Ffrench run for 8 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+5
3.2%
Maurice Ffrench run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 20 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Andrew Brown) to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
3.2%
George Aston run for 6 yds to the Virg 4Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
3.2%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Jack Powers and Jordan Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 6Similar
Q4 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
2.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Aaron MathewsSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+25
1.7%
Chris Blewitt 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 27FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 1:171% → 2%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to David Eldridge for 16 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
1.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Reggie MitchellSimilar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
1.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 3:21
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q4 3:21
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+22
1.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 22 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
1.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 19 yds to the Pitt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 2:21
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
1.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to David EldridgeSimilar
Q4 2:21
3RD & 10
OPP 18
0
1.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 10
OPP 18
+36
1.6%
Sam Hayward 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 12
OPP 45
-2
1.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-2
1.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:04
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted for a TD Jordan Whitehead return for 59 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-16.8
TD · Q2 0:40
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-11.9
TD · Q2 5:57
Albert Reid run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Hayward KICK)
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com