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GASO

Georgia Southern 24 at Georgia Tech 35

GT
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadGASO aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreGASO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:41 · Matt Flynn punt for 45 yds, downed at the GTech 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 9Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior+19.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:48: Dedrick Mills run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +5.5 pts (now 78%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:25: Justin Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +8.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 9:38: L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +7.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 3:58: Dedrick Mills run for 20 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK) — GT win probability +6.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:03: Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK) — GASO win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: GASO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 4 of 4GASO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 13:41GASO 4th & 5 at GASO 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:02GASO 4th & 1 at GT 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−5.0
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:55GT 4th & 1 at GT 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.5%−1.9
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:55GT 4th & 16 at GT 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:30GASO 4th & 1 at GT 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    19.7%−1.7
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−2.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:13GASO 4th & 21 at GT 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−1.4
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−2.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:15GT 4th & 10 at GASO 15, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−1.0
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    83% to make
    Punt
    78.5%−3.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00GASO 4th & 5 at GT 37, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    19.8%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:31GT 4th & 9 at GT 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:28GASO 4th & 9 at GASO 45, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5GASO made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 13:48GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:53GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 4:02GASO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:48GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:25GT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:38GASO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.5%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:58GT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:03GASO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1270% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
69.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 11 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
69.9%
Qua Searcy run for 6 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+58
70.2%
Justin Thomas run for 58 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
70.1%
Favian Upshaw run for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
70.1%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 13:41
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+7
70.1%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Montay Crockett for 7 yds to the GeoSo 26Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 5
OWN 26
0
70.1%
Matt Flynn punt for 45 yds, downed at the GTech 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 71 yds · 1:2070% → 72%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
70.4%
Mills, D. rush for 6 yards to the GT35 (J. Bowdry;R. Brice), PENALTY GS offside defense (B. Dawson) 5 yards to the GT34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 5
OWN 34
+1
70.5%
Dedrick Mills run for 1 yd to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+65
71.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 65 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 4TD
19 plays · 75 yds · 6:5128% → 29%
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.7%
Favian Upshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
71.7%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 24Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+14
71.8%
Favian Upshaw run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
71.6%
Favian Upshaw run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 1
OWN 47
0
71.4%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
71.5%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
71.5%
Matt Breida run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+8
71.6%
Favian Upshaw run for 8 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+5
71.5%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the GTech 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
71.5%
Favian Upshaw run for 13 yds to the GTech 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
71.2%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to L.A. RamsbySimilar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+14
71.3%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Matt Breida for 14 yds to the GTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+8
71.2%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the GTech 4Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 2
OPP 4
+2
71.2%
Matt Breida run for 2 yds to the GTech 2 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
71.2%
L.A. Ramsby run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 3Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
71.2%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete, broken up by KeShun FreemanSimilar
Q1 10:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
71.4%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Myles Campbell for 2 yds to the GTech 1Similar
Q1 4:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1472% → 78%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.8%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
71.7%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 27Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
71.4%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 15 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
72.4%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+50
72.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 50 yds to the GeoSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
77.9%
Dedrick Mills run for 6 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:4124% → 24%
Q1 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
76.0%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Wesley Fields for 6 yds to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+2
75.8%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+6
76.2%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Wesley Fields for 6 yds to the GeoSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-8
76.1%
Wesley Fields run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 35 GA SOUTHERN Penalty, Offensive holding (BJ Johnson III) to the GeoSo 25Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 25
+7
76.3%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Myles Campbell for 7 yds to the GeoSo 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 32
+2
76.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 34
0
76.3%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Keigan WilliamsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 34
0
76.5%
Matt Flynn punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 1:5679% → 78%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
79.0%
Dedrick Mills run for 2 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+5
79.1%
Dedrick Mills run for 5 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
78.7%
J.J. Green run for 2 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
78.2%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
79.3%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the GTech 42 Justin Thomas fumbled, forced by Ukeme Eligwe, recovered by GTech Justin ThomasSimilar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 16
OWN 42
0
78.8%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
78.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Qua SearcySimilar
Q2 10:55
4TH & 16
OWN 42
0
77.6%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Montay Crockett at the GeoSo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 8FG
17 plays · 49 yds · 7:1722% → 21%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
77.7%
Matt Breida run for 15 yds to the GeoSo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
77.1%
Favian Upshaw run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+1
76.7%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+14
76.5%
F. Upshaw pass incomplete to 8, PENALTY GT pass interference (Durham, S.) 14 yards to the GT39, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
76.3%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (Jeremiah Culbreth) to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
76.8%
Favian Upshaw run for no gain to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+7
77.1%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
76.4%
Wesley Fields run for 7 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+1
76.4%
Kevin Ellison run for 1 yd to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
75.5%
Matt Breida run for 5 yds to the GTech 24Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+4
75.5%
Kevin Ellison run for 4 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
76.0%
Wesley Fields run for 4 yds to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
75.5%
Wesley Fields run for 1 yd to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-4
75.5%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 19Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 13
OPP 19
-3
76.9%
Kevin Ellison run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 22Similar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 16
OPP 22
-5
78.0%
GA SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 27Similar
Q2 2:13
4TH & 21
OPP 27
+44
79.5%
Younghoe Koo 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9MISSED FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 1:5879% → 80%
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
78.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Clinton Lynch for 16 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
80.1%
Qua Searcy run for 4 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q2 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+1
80.1%
J.J. Green run for 1 yd to the GTech 46Similar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+12
79.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 12 yds to the GeoSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
81.1%
Dedrick Mills run for 14 yds to the GeoSo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
81.2%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+13
81.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 13 yds to the GeoSo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
81.2%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GeoSo 15Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
81.2%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 1:47
3RD & 10
OPP 15
0
80.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 0:15
4TH & 10
OPP 15
+32
79.9%
Harrison Butker 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
79.2%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
79.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the GeoSo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 11DOWNS
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
79.9%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
79.6%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+20
80.5%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 20 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
78.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for a loss of 2 yards to the GeoSo 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+12
79.2%
Matt Breida run for 12 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
78.2%
Favian Upshaw run for 1 yd to the GTech 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
78.2%
Favian Upshaw pass complete to Myles Campbell for 4 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
78.5%
Favian Upshaw pass incomplete to Montay CrockettSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-11
79.3%
Favian Upshaw sacked by Corey Griffin for a loss of 11 yards to the GTech 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
82.8%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 48Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+1
82.8%
Justin Thomas run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 47Similar
Q3 11:31
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-4
82.1%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 49Similar
Q3 11:31
4TH & 9
OWN 49
0
80.7%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
81.5%
Matt Breida run for 1 yd to the GeoSo 21Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+8
81.7%
Matt Breida run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 29Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
81.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
81.1%
Kevin Ellison run for 9 yds to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
80.1%
Wesley Fields run for no gain to the GeoSo 41Similar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
80.3%
Kevin Ellison run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
80.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Montay Crockett, broken up by Lance AustinSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
80.6%
Wesley Fields run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:28
3RD & 4
50
-5
79.7%
Wesley Fields run for a loss of 5 yards to the GeoSo 45Similar
Q3 9:28
4TH & 9
OWN 45
0
82.3%
Matt Flynn punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD
12 plays · 90 yds · 6:3485% → 97%
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
84.6%
Dedrick Mills run for 2 yds to the GTech 12Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
84.5%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the GTech 14Similar
Q3 4:59
3RD & 6
OWN 14
+40
83.8%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 40 yds to the GeoSo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
85.8%
J.J. Green run for 3 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+7
85.8%
Dedrick Mills run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
85.8%
Dedrick Mills run for 13 yds to the GeoSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
85.8%
Lynn Griffin run for a loss of 4 yards to the GeoSo 27Similar
Q3 4:59
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+8
85.6%
Dedrick Mills run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+11
88.2%
Thomas, J. pass incomplete to Jeune, R., PENALTY GS pass interference (J. Liptrot) 11 yards to the GS8, 1ST DOWN GT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
88.5%
Dedrick Mills run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
88.5%
Dedrick Mills run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 4Similar
Q4 13:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.9%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 15TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:404% → 14%
Q4 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
95.6%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 10 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.9%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Myles CampbellSimilar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
95.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 19 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
94.8%
Matt Breida run for 3 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
94.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to L.A. Ramsby for 6 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+1
94.3%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+25
94.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Keigan Williams for 25 yds to the GTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
93.6%
K. Ellison pass incomplete to M. Henry, PENALTY GT holding (Austin, Law.) 6 yards to the GT5, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
93.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for 4 yds to the GTech 1Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
93.6%
L.A. Ramsby run for no gain to the GTech 1Similar
Q4 9:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
85.9%
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 5:3092% → 98%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
91.7%
Marcus Marshall run for 6 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+7
91.8%
Marcus Marshall run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
91.9%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+7
91.9%
Marcus Marshall run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
91.9%
Lynn Griffin run for no gain to the GeoSo 37Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
91.8%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+4
91.7%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GeoSo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
91.9%
Dedrick Mills run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 20Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
98.4%
Dedrick Mills run for 20 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GASODrive 17TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:552% → 8%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Myles CampbellSimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.8%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Matt Breida for 6 yds to the GeoSo 31Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
97.7%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 4 yds to the GeoSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
97.6%
Kevin Ellison run for 8 yds to the GeoSo 43Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
97.6%
Wesley Fields run for 8 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
97.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Montay Crockett for 7 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
97.3%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to BJ Johnson IIISimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
97.4%
Wesley Fields run for 5 yds to the GTech 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
97.4%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Malik HenrySimilar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
97.5%
Kevin Ellison pass incomplete to Hampton McConnellSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+24
97.5%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to Wesley Fields for 24 yds to the GTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
97.1%
K. Ellison pass incomplete to Q. Howard, PENALTY GT pass interference (Austin, Law.) 10 yards to the GT3, 1ST DOWN GS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.0%
Kevin Ellison pass complete to BJ Johnson III for 3 yds for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18END OF GAME
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:1097% → 98%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
96.6%
Matthew Jordan run for 7 yds to the GeoSo 44Similar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+2
97.2%
Matthew Jordan run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 42Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+2
97.5%
Matthew Jordan run for 2 yds to the GeoSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
97.6%
Matthew Jordan run for 5 yds to the GeoSo 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:25
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q4 9:38
L.A. Ramsby run for 1 yd for a TD, (Younghoe Koo KICK)
-7.7
TD · Q4 3:58
Dedrick Mills run for 20 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com