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DUKE

Duke 14 at Louisville 24

LOU
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 14, 2016 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:32 · Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Pregame prior+0.7Home team on offense+24.3Garbage-time factor+6.1Score differential+7.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Blowout margin+0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:50: Jeremy Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +6.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:34: Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 20 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +24.1 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:34: Danny Stirt kickoff for 60 yds , Malik Williams return for 15 yds to the Lvile 20 — LOU win probability +5.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:23: Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26 — LOU win probability +7.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:32: Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +5.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 3:37LOU 4th & 2 at LOU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:55DUKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51LOU 4th & 5 at DUKE 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.4%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.4%
    92% to make
    Punt
    90.6%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:44DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:01LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:17DUKE 4th & 2 at LOU 22, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%−0.4
    72% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−3.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:07LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.4%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:25DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:54DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.0%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:53DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 0:27LOU 4th & 12 at DUKE 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.1%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:33DUKE 4th & 1 at DUKE 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−0.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:32DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:11LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:06DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:50LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:34DUKE Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.8
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:32LOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:4496% → 96%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
96.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
96.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Lvile 36Similar
Q1 14:04
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
95.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q1 13:37
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
95.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
95.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+29
95.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 29 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
95.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 14Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
95.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+9
95.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
95.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 4:525% → 6%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
95.5%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+1
95.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+51
95.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 51 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
95.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+12
94.9%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
94.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+2
94.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 9Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
93.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:1594% → 93%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+11
93.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
93.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+9
93.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
93.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith TowbridgeSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 2
OWN 42
0
93.4%
Mason King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:327% → 7%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
93.3%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 24Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+2
93.1%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 26
0
92.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+9
93.0%
Austin Parker punt for 54 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 9 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5FG
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:5693% → 93%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
93.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+53
93.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 53 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
93.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 4Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.9%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 5Similar
Q2 14:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
92.7%
Evan O'Hara 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 2:507% → 8%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
92.6%
Jela Duncan run for 8 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+2
92.1%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
92.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
92.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 38Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+2
92.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 2 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
91.9%
Austin Parker punt for 49 yds, downed at the Lvile 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:3492% → 91%
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
91.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 18Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+10
91.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 10 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
91.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
91.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
90.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 10:01
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
90.5%
Mason King punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8MISSED FG
16 plays · 45 yds · 7:369% → 13%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
90.9%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+5
90.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 8:29
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
90.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
89.7%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 45Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+3
89.5%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+11
89.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 11 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
88.6%
DUKE Penalty, False Start (Daniel Helm) to the Lvile 46Similar
Q2 5:13
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+5
88.7%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-4
88.0%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+15
88.7%
Jones, Daniel pass incomplete to Nash, Anthony, PENALTY LOUISVILLE roughing passer (Kelsey, Keith) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.Similar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
87.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 1
OPP 21
-1
86.4%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 22 Shaun Wilson fumbled, recovered by Duke Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
86.7%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
87.4%
AJ Reed 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 1:0588% → 87%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
88.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 2:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+8
88.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 8 yds to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+17
87.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
88.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
88.5%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 47Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
88.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+9
87.3%
Mason King punt for 34 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 9 yds to the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:5813% → 13%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.2%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
86.6%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 2:3013% → 14%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
86.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
86.7%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 13:21
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+5
86.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 5 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 12:25
4TH & 8
OWN 39
+2
86.5%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 41 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (Jamari Staples) to the Lvile 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 12TD
5 plays · 94 yds · 1:0786% → 92%
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
85.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7Similar
Q3 11:49
2ND & 9
OWN 7
+6
85.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 6 yds to the Lvile 13Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 3
OWN 13
+7
85.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth DawkinsSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+80
91.7%
Jeremy Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 3:369% → 9%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
91.4%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
91.6%
Jela Duncan run for 7 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
91.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
91.0%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
91.1%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-1
90.8%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
91.4%
Parker Boehme punt for 48 yds, downed at the Lvile 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:0691% → 92%
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+28
91.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 28 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
92.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 40Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 13
OWN 40
0
91.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+19
91.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
92.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+13
92.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
92.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 7 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 3
OPP 15
+10
92.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Duke 5 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, recovered by Duke Alonzo Saxton IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:369% → 8%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
91.0%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 8
OWN 7
-1
91.0%
Jela Duncan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 6Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
91.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 1:53
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+8
91.7%
Danny Stirt punt for 41 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 8 yds to the Duke 14 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 16MISSED FG
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:1492% → 91%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
92.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
92.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 19Similar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 6
OPP 19
0
92.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-6
91.9%
Jackson, Lamar pass complete to Quick, James for 13 yards to the DUKE6, PENALTY LOUISVILLE illegal formation 6 yards to the DUKE25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:33
3RD & 12
OPP 25
0
91.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q3 0:27
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+42
90.8%
Evan O'Hara 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 8:269% → 34%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
91.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
90.8%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
90.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
91.1%
Parker Boehme run for 3 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
90.1%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 38Similar
Q4 12:04
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+12
90.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:27
1ST & 10
50
+7
88.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 10:44
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+2
87.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 9:58
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+5
89.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
90.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q4 8:35
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
89.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Lvile 27Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+2
89.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
89.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
65.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 20 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 18TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 4:5178% → 97%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
78.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+5
78.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 5 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
78.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Khalil Hunter) to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 5:17
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+19
77.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
81.1%
Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 5
50
+18
83.2%
Traveon Samuel run for 18 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
85.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+11
86.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-7
88.5%
Traveon Samuel run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 24Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 22
OPP 29
0
88.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q4 2:00
4TH & 22
OPP 29
+15
87.4%
DUKE Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Breon Borders) to the Duke 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
91.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:365% → 4%
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
95.5%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
95.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+5
96.1%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q4 0:32
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
95.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 20END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:34
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 20 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-24.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:23
Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26
+7
TD · Q3 10:50
Jeremy Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
+6.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com