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VT

Virginia Tech 34 at North Carolina 3

UNC
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Kenan Stadium
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Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadVT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreVT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 41
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 12:48: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 11 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST down — UNC win probability +4.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. FG · Q2 10:59: Nick Weiler 28 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +2.2 pts (now 60%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  3. TD · Q2 1:50: Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +8.5 pts (now 59%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:43: Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 22 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +15.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:13: Jerod Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK) — VT win probability +9.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: VT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 11VT made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:48VT 4th & 15 at VT 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:31UNC 4th & 1 at VT 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%−0.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    65.5%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:39VT 4th & 1 at VT 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:33VT 4th & 7 at UNC 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:23VT 4th & 9 at UNC 11, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 25, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.3%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:12VT 4th & 1 at VT 36, up 6
    Close callPunted · 39.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:53UNC 4th & 4 at UNC 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 60.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:59UNC 4th & 10 at VT 11, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.8
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    52.3%−5.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:45UNC 4th & 16 at UNC 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−5.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:41UNC 4th & 5 at UNC 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:01UNC 4th & 13 at UNC 22, down 17
    Numbers favored punt by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.4%−2.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    28.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:13VT 4th & 1 at UNC 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−14.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:06UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 9, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−1.5
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:57VT 4th & 12 at UNC 46, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    93.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    Punt
    93.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:47UNC 4th & 7 at VT 40, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.4%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    7.6%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:54VT 4th & 3 at VT 47, up 24
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 0:45UNC 4th & 11 at VT 20, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−2.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:18VT 4th & 20 at VT 42, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:43UNC 4th & 8 at UNC 27, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
VT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 1:50VT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:43VT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:13VT Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:13VT Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0039% → 39%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the VTech 25Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky HodgesSimilar
Q1 14:23
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-5
61.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the VTech 20 TEAM fumbled, recovered by VTech Jerod EvansSimilar
Q1 13:48
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
61.4%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 36 yds, downed at the NCaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:0961% → 62%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
61.4%
T.J. Logan run for 14 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
61.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 4 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
61.5%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 33
0
61.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the VTech 33Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-1
61.5%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4639% → 39%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
61.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 6 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
61.0%
Jerod Evans run for 3 yds to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 43
0
60.9%
Marshawn Williams run for no gain to the VTech 43Similar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 1
OWN 43
0
61.0%
Greg Stroman punt for 45 yds, downed at the NCaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:1261% → 61%
Q1 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
61.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 12
-5
61.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (R.J. Prince) to the NCaro 7Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 15
OWN 7
0
61.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Nigel WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 15
OWN 7
0
60.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Greg Stroman return for no gain to the NCaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 5FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4440% → 39%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
60.5%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+3
60.5%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q1 9:38
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
60.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Bucky Hodges, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
60.7%
Joey Slye 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:1661% → 61%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.7%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 26Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+13
60.6%
Khris Francis run for 13 yds to the NCaro 39 Khris Francis fumbled, forced by Brandon Facyson, recovered by VTech Terrell EdmundsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 7FG
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:4240% → 42%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
60.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
59.9%
Jerod Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:28
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+7
60.1%
Evans, Jerod pass incomplete to Ford, Isaiah (Lawrence, Des), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Lawrence, Des) 7 yards to the UNC30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH.Similar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
59.8%
Sam Rogers run for 1 yd to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+1
59.7%
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 7:09
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+16
59.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 16 yds to the NCaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
59.2%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 13 Jerod Evans fumbled, recovered by VTech Jerod Evans Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 11
OPP 13
+2
59.3%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
59.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete, broken up by Nazair JonesSimilar
Q1 5:23
4TH & 9
OPP 11
+28
58.5%
Joey Slye 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3159% → 58%
Q1 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
58.9%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-1
58.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+6
58.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 6 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
57.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 48 yds, downed at the VTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:0842% → 43%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
57.7%
Travon McMillian run for 1 yd to the VTech 28Similar
Q1 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
57.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+8
57.9%
Jerod Evans run for 8 yds to the VTech 36Similar
Q1 2:12
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
57.2%
Greg Stroman punt for 35 yds, downed at the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:1058% → 58%
Q1 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
58.1%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
57.7%
Khris Francis run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 1:15
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
57.5%
Trubisky, Mitch pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the UNC30 (Ekanem, Ken), PENALTY VATECH holding (Reynolds, Mook) 9 yards to the UNC42, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
58.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
58.0%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+5
57.6%
VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+1
58.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 1 yd to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
57.7%
Tom Sheldon punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 11FUMBLE
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:4343% → 45%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
56.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Travon McMillian for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 19Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
56.6%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the VTech 27Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+8
55.1%
Evans, Jerod pass incomplete to Hodges, Bucky (TEAM), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Bell Jr., Corey) 8 yards to the VATECH35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN VATECH, QB hurry by TEAM, QB hit by TEAM.Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
54.8%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah FordSimilar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
54.9%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the VTech 37Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-2
54.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:4960% → 60%
Q2 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
59.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 11 yds to the VTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
58.7%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the VTech 24Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+6
58.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 6 yds to the VTech 18Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+7
57.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 7 yds to the VTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
58.5%
T.J. Logan run for no gain to the VTech 11Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
58.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Carl Tucker, broken up by Tremaine EdmundsSimilar
Q2 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
57.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to T.J. LoganSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
59.5%
Nick Weiler 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 13FUMBLE
14 plays · 63 yds · 5:0542% → 47%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
57.6%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Isaiah Ford, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
57.8%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+14
57.4%
Jerod Evans run for 14 yds to the VTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
55.7%
Jerod Evans run for 15 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
55.3%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+8
54.5%
Cam Phillips run for 8 yds to the NCaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
53.4%
Rogers, Sam rush for 4 yards to the UNC21, PENALTY VATECH illegal shift 5 yards to the UNC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+4
53.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Cam Phillips for 4 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
53.0%
Jerod Evans pass incomplete to Sam Rogers, broken up by Cole HolcombSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+12
53.9%
Jerod Evans run for 12 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
52.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+2
52.6%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
53.2%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the NCaro 7 Jerod Evans fumbled, forced by Nazair Jones, recovered by NCaro Nazair JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:5356% → 54%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+6
55.8%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the NCaro 13Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 4
OWN 13
-6
56.0%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Woody Baron and Andrew Motuapuaka for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 7Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 10
OWN 7
-6
54.5%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Tremaine Edmunds for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 3:53
4TH & 16
OWN 1
0
53.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Delay of Game ( Yards) to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 3:45
4TH & 16
OWN 1
+39
53.8%
Tom Sheldon punt for 39 yds , Greg Stroman returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 41 Greg Stroman fumbled, recovered by VTech Greg StromanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 41 yds · 1:4748% → 59%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
52.4%
Jerod Evans pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
52.3%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 2:48
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+5
52.3%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Travon McMillian for 5 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
50.9%
Travon McMillian run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+28
49.2%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Bucky Hodges for 28 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.7%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:0142% → 41%
Q2 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
42.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
42.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 3 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
42.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 5 yds to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
41.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
41.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Greg Stroman at the VTech 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
41.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18FUMBLE
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:0139% → 38%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
39.4%
Khris Francis run for 8 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
40.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack Hollins, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
39.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 2 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-6
39.2%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the NCaro 39 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Carl Tucker) to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 13:34
1ST & 16
OWN 29
-5
38.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 13:15
1ST & 21
OWN 24
+12
37.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 12 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+9
37.9%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 22 Mitch Trubisky fumbled, recovered by VTech Woody Baron , return for 9 yds to the NCaro 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 19TD
1 play · 22 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
22.6%
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 22 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20FUMBLE
6 plays · -21 yds · 0:3326% → 25%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.8%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
25.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to T.J. Logan, broken up by Ken EkanemSimilar
Q3 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
25.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 12:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-5
25.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 13
OWN 22
-18
24.8%
Tom Sheldon run for a loss of 18 yards to the NCaro 4 Tom Sheldon fumbled, recovered by NCaro Tom SheldonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 21TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:4279% → 89%
Q3 11:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
21.4%
Cam Phillips run for 3 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.8%
Jerod Evans run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
20.6%
Travon McMillian run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 10:13
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
11.0%
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5611% → 10%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
10.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Carl Tucker, broken up by Terrell EdmundsSimilar
Q3 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
10.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q3 9:48
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
10.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for no gain to the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 9:06
4TH & 10
OWN 9
0
9.6%
Tom Sheldon punt for 47 yds, downed at the VTech 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 23FUMBLE
7 plays · -2 yds · 3:0092% → 94%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
7.9%
Marshawn Williams run for 6 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+3
7.7%
Marshawn Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 7:49
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+2
7.2%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-12
7.0%
Jerod Evans sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 12 yards to the UNC 44 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Jerod Evans) to the VTech 44Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 22
OWN 44
+5
6.8%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 6:20
3RD & 17
OWN 49
+5
5.8%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 12
OPP 46
-11
6.0%
Mitchell Ludwig run for a loss of 11 yards to the VTech 43 Mitchell Ludwig fumbled, recovered by VTech Mitchell LudwigSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:028% → 7%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
8.1%
Mitch Trubisky run for 5 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q3 5:27
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-2
8.2%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 40Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
7.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q3 4:47
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
7.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:4695% → 96%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
5.1%
Travon McMillian run for 6 yds to the VTech 46Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+3
4.6%
Jerod Evans run for 3 yds to the VTech 49Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-2
4.3%
Jerod Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 47Similar
Q3 2:54
4TH & 3
OWN 47
0
4.5%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 14 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26DOWNS
8 plays · 41 yds · 1:596% → 5%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
6.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 6 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+11
6.3%
T.J. Logan run for 11 yds to the VTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
6.4%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the VTech 42Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+23
5.8%
T.J. Logan run for 23 yds to the VTech 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
6.2%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 20Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
5.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
5.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan Switzer, broken up by Greg StromanSimilar
Q3 0:45
4TH & 11
OPP 20
0
5.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin Proehl, broken up by Andrew MotuapuakaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 27PUNT
13 plays · 22 yds · 6:4297% → 98%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
3.4%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 22Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+7
3.3%
Cam Phillips run for 7 yds to the VTech 29Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
3.3%
Jerod Evans run for 3 yds to the VTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
3.1%
Marshawn Williams run for 2 yds to the VTech 34Similar
Q4 13:05
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+4
2.9%
Cam Phillips run for 4 yds to the VTech 38Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+4
2.5%
Jerod Evans run for 4 yds to the VTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
2.3%
Jerod Evans run for 2 yds to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+8
2.1%
Travon McMillian run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-7
1.9%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 45 VIRGINIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Wyatt Teller) to the VTech 45Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 17
OWN 45
+3
1.8%
Travon McMillian run for 3 yds to the VTech 48Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 14
OWN 48
-7
1.7%
Jerod Evans sacked by Nazair Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the VTech 41Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 21
OWN 41
+1
1.6%
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 8:18
4TH & 20
OWN 42
0
1.6%
Mitchell Ludwig punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass intercepted Andrew Motuapuaka return for no gain to the NCaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 29TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:5499% → 100%
Q4 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+10
1.3%
C.J. Carroll run for 10 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
1.3%
Travon McMillian run for 5 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 6:43
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+10
1.1%
Travon McMillian run for 10 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
0.2%
Travon McMillian run for 4 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.2%
Jordon Brown run for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-1
0.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jake Bargas for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
0.2%
Tom Sheldon punt for 53 yds, downed at the VTech 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VTDrive 31END OF GAME
8 plays · 21 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
Q4 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
0.2%
Shai McKenzie run for 8 yds to the VTech 28Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
0.2%
Shai McKenzie run for 3 yds to the VTech 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
0.2%
Shai McKenzie run for 4 yds to the VTech 35Similar
Q4 2:38
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
0.2%
Shai McKenzie run for 5 yds to the VTech 40Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+5
0.1%
Shai McKenzie run for 5 yds to the VTech 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 44Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the VTech 42Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OWN 42
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the VTech 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:43
Jerod Evans pass complete to Sam Rogers for 22 yds for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
-15.3
TD · Q3 10:13
Jerod Evans run for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 1:50
Jerod Evans pass complete to Chris Cunningham for 1 yd for a TD, (Joey Slye KICK)
-8.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com