Try the model
UNC

North Carolina 37 at Florida State 35

FSU
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Doak Campbell Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · FSU
modelFSU aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playFSU scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:05 · Deondre Francois run for 18 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+11.1Home team on offense−19.0Score differential−10.1Garbage-time factor−6.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:37: Jacques Patrick 0 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick) — FSU win probability +19.2 pts (now 59%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 5:11: Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +33.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:31: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler PAT BLOCKED) — UNC win probability +35.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:23: D. Francois run for 2 yds for a TD, (R. Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +61.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Nick Weiler 54 yd FG GOOD — UNC win probability +60.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6UNC made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:37FSU 4th & 2 at UNC 28, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%−0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    78.3%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:20FSU 4th & 9 at UNC 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.0%
    47% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:54UNC 4th & 1 at FSU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−0.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:30FSU 4th & 12 at UNC 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:34FSU 4th & 7 at UNC 43, down 14
    Close callPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−1.0
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:30UNC 4th & 8 at FSU 34, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−1.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 3:05FSU 4th & 2 at UNC 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    26.3%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:22FSU 4th & 1 at UNC 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−3.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.4%−13.8
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:06UNC 4th & 9 at UNC 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−2.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 7:57UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:04UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:52UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:47FSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:37FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:18UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:22FSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:11FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.3%−1.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:31UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.6 ptsKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    78.5%−1.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.1%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:23FSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−12.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FSUDrive 1MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 3:0383% → 83%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
83.3%
Kermit Whitfield run for 21 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
83.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the NCaro 45Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+9
83.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
83.1%
Kermit Whitfield run for 8 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
-1
83.0%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
82.9%
Deondre Francois run for 1 yd to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 11:37
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+45
82.6%
Ricky Aguayo 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:3318% → 21%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
82.3%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+4
82.1%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+7
81.9%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
81.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 2 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+12
81.6%
Elijah Hood run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
81.4%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+11
81.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 11 yds to the FlaSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
80.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 9 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
Q1 8:24
2ND & 1
OPP 17
-5
80.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (Caleb Peterson) to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q1 7:57
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
79.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2579% → 78%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
79.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 14 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
79.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 26 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
79.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q1 6:07
2ND & 4
OPP 29
-5
79.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Landon Dickerson) to the NCaro 34Similar
Q1 5:41
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
79.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
78.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 5:20
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+52
78.1%
Ricky Aguayo 52 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jeremiah Clarke Andre Smith return for 38 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:0623% → 24%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
76.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the FlaSt 44Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+3
76.6%
Khris Francis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
76.1%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+2
75.8%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 1
OPP 32
0
75.4%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 1
OPP 32
0
76.0%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the FlaSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 5MISSED FG
7 plays · 41 yds · 2:1577% → 75%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
76.8%
Deondre Francois sacked by Mikey Bart for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
Q1 2:03
2ND & 16
OWN 25
+16
75.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 16 yds to the FlaSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
76.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 33 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
77.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 28Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
76.5%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
75.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
74.9%
Ricky Aguayo 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
7 plays · 72 yds · 1:1626% → 33%
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
74.4%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+30
74.1%
T.J. Logan run for 30 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+7
72.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 7 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+5
72.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 5 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
72.3%
T.J. Logan run for 15 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
67.1%
T.J. Logan run for 13 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 3:1368% → 64%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
68.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 13 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
68.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 37Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+17
67.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 17 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
68.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 6 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+2
66.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 2
OPP 38
-5
66.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Mavin Saunders) to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
65.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 10 yds to the NCaro 33 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Jesus Wilson) to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 10:40
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
63.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 10:34
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
63.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:2338% → 55%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
61.6%
T.J. Logan run for 9 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+2
61.0%
T.J. Logan run for 2 yds to the NCaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
60.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+2
59.5%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+31
59.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 31 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+33
57.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 33 yds to the FlaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
56.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
55.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for no gain to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
45.3%
Mitch Trubisky run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5846% → 57%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
46.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 34 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+13
47.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 13 yds to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
47.3%
Deondre Francois run for 14 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
46.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the NCaro 9Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+9
56.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10FUMBLE
12 plays · 70 yds · 3:2348% → 58%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
52.4%
Ryan Switzer run for 7 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+7
51.9%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
51.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+2
49.8%
Khris Francis run for 2 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+8
49.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
50
+3
47.7%
Khris Francis run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q2 2:14
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
47.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+34
44.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 34 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
43.8%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
43.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 0
OPP 2
-5
42.5%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 7 Elijah Hood fumbled, forced by Matthew Thomas, recovered by FlaSt Jacob PughSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 11END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:4546% → 45%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
46.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 12Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+6
46.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
45.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
45.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:2055% → 61%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
44.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 6 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
44.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 8 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
42.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+24
41.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 9 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Meyers) to the FlaSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-7
39.8%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 43 Mitch Trubisky fumbled, recovered by NCaro Jon Heck , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 17
OPP 43
+10
38.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 10 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 12:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-1
37.8%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by A.J. Westbrook for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+51
39.1%
Nick Weiler 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 1:4341% → 59%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
40.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
42.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
41.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 10 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
41.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 9:44
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+24
39.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 34 yds to the NCaro 9 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacques Patrick) to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
59.1%
Jacques Patrick 0 Yd Run (Ricky Aguayo Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:1248% → 73%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
52.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete, broken up by Matthew ThomasSimilar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
52.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 3 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q3 8:50
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+44
52.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 44 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
47.4%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
47.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Austin ProehlSimilar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 9
OPP 27
+11
47.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 11 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
45.6%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 15Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 9
OPP 15
0
45.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+15
27.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15TD
21 plays · 76 yds · 8:4533% → 39%
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
32.9%
Cook, Dalvin rush over right end for 3 yards to the FLORIDAST27, PENALTY FLORIDAST holding (Izzo, Ryan) 10 yards to the FLORIDAST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 20
OWN 14
-12
31.9%
Deondre Francois sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 12 yards to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 32
OWN 2
+6
31.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 6 yds to the FlaSt 8Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 26
OWN 8
+20
29.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 20 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q3 5:20
4TH & 6
OWN 28
+15
29.5%
Tyler, Logan punt 17 yards to the FLORIDAST45, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UNC roughing the kicker (Bell Jr., Corey) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
31.1%
Deondre Francois run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+4
30.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 3:30
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
29.9%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the NCaro 49Similar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 2
OPP 49
+18
26.8%
Deondre Francois run for 18 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
27.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+15
26.5%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 15 yds to the NCaro 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
25.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
25.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the NCaro 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:30
1ST & 0
OPP 1
-5
27.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the NCaro 6Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
24.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the NCaro 4Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
23.8%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the NCaro 2Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 0
OPP 2
+1
25.0%
Cook, Dalvin rush over right tackle for 1 yard to the UNC1, PENALTY UNC neutral zone infraction (Dinkins, Robert) 1 yards to the UNC1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.8%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 13:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5467% → 65%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
32.9%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Demarcus Christmas and Derrick Nnadi for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
33.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 5 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q4 12:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
33.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack HollinsSimilar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+49
35.1%
Tom Sheldon punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FLORIDAST 35 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Travis Rudolph) to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 6:4835% → 65%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
34.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q4 11:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
33.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 12 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
35.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 6 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+16
37.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
36.8%
Deondre Francois run for 5 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+1
36.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+12
35.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 12 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
37.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-15
36.5%
Whitfield, Kermit rush reverse for loss of 3 yards to the UNC23, PENALTY FLORIDAST illegal block (Dickerson, Landon) 15 yards to the UNC35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 22
OPP 35
+24
31.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 24 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
33.3%
Deondre Francois run for 4 yds to the NCaro 7Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
31.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
65.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1947% → 90%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
52.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 15 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
48.7%
Logan, T.J. rush over left end for 5 yards to the UNC45, PENALTY UNC holding (Peterson, Caleb) 10 yards to the UNC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+2
52.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 18
OWN 32
+10
52.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 10 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+13
49.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 13 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
44.8%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+12
45.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 12 yds to the FlaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
10.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 2:0824% → 87%
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
23.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Alec Eberle) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-10
23.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus Wilson, broken up by M.J. Stewart FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Landon Dickerson) to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 25
OWN 10
+21
22.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 21 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
20.4%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, False Start (Brock Ruble) to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q4 1:18
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+56
22.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 41 yds to the FLORIDAST 33 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Roughing Passer (M.J. Stewart) to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
28.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+4
25.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the NCaro 14Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+9
24.1%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 9 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
26.1%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete, broken up by Nazair JonesSimilar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 0
OPP 5
+3
28.3%
Francois, Deondre pass middle post incomplete to Tate, Auden thrown to the UNC0 (Rene, Patrice), PENALTY UNC pass interference (Rene, Patrice) 3 yards to the UNC2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN FLORIDAST.Similar
Q4 0:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
25.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden Tate, broken up by Dominquie GreenSimilar
Q4 0:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
87.1%
D. Francois run for 2 yds for a TD, (R. Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20END OF GAME
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:1728% → 95%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
72.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 23 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
67.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q4 0:04
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
70.4%
Trubisky, Mitch pass left deep out incomplete to Hollins, Mack thrown to the UNC30, PENALTY FLORIDAST pass interference (McFadden, Tarvarus) 15 yards to the FLORIDAST37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+54
4.8%
Nick Weiler 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:23
D. Francois run for 2 yds for a TD, (R. Aguayo KICK)
+61.9
FG · Q4 0:00
Nick Weiler 54 yd FG GOOD
-60.8
TD · Q4 2:31
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 34 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler PAT BLOCKED)
-35.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com