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UVA

Virginia 34 at Duke 20

DUKE
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:26 · Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Home team on offense−16.9Pregame prior+2.8Score differential−4.3Garbage-time factor−5.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:01: Albert Reid run for 1 yd for a TD, (S Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +10.6 pts (now 47%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:12: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds for a TD, (S Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +13.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 5:40: AJ Reed 21 yd FG GOOD — DUKE win probability +4.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:17: Kurt Benkert pass complete to Richard Burney for 3 yds for a TD, (S Hayward KICK) — UVA win probability +21.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:34: Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +23.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 8UVA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:14UVA 4th & 10 at DUKE 33, tied
    Close callWent for it · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.4%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%
    49% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:24UVA 4th & 12 at UVA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:41UVA 4th & 6 at DUKE 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:19DUKE 4th & 3 at DUKE 27, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:53DUKE 4th & 2 at UVA 40, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    64.2%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:09UVA 4th & 22 at UVA 19, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:23DUKE 4th & 3 at UVA 20, up 1
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%−0.2
    75% to make
    Punt
    62.5%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:16UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:56UVA 4th & 1 at UVA 34, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−1.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:40DUKE 4th & 3 at UVA 3, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−11.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 2 at midfield, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:24UVA 4th & 11 at UVA 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−2.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:26UVA 4th & 3 at UVA 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    72.5%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:02DUKE 4th & 5 at UVA 28, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.6%−12.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:05DUKE 4th & 2 at UVA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%−3.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    19.2%−7.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:14UVA 4th & 5 at DUKE 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:29DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:38UVA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    36.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:01UVA Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:12UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:17UVA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:34DUKE Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
DUKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
65.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
65.1%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 2DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
65.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
65.0%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 38Similar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
65.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+29
65.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 29 yds to the Duke 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
65.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
65.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+9
65.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 9 yds to the Duke 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 3TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:1465% → 67%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
65.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+5
65.1%
Jones, D pass incomplete, PENALTY VA offside 5 yards to the DU36, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
65.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 8 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+10
65.2%
Daniel Jones run for 10 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
65.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+6
65.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
65.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Virg 26Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 3
OPP 26
+3
65.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
67.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 23 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
66.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 9:24
2ND & 12
OWN 20
-14
66.7%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Corbin McCarthy for a loss of 14 yards to the Virg 6 VIRGINIA Penalty, intentional grounding (Kurt Benkert) to the Virg 6Similar
Q1 9:24
3RD & 26
OWN 6
+14
66.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 14 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+9
67.0%
Nicholas Conte punt for 55 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 5INT
5 plays · 24 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
67.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
67.0%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 12 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
67.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 8 yds to the Virg 46Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
67.6%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
67.6%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Juan Thornhill return for 17 yds to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
67.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
66.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 8 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
66.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Ben HumphreysSimilar
Q1 6:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+5
66.8%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q1 6:41
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+4
66.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-5
66.9%
VIRGINIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 48Similar
Q1 6:41
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
67.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
68.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+1
68.1%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 4:19
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
67.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider, broken up by Zach BradshawSimilar
Q1 4:19
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
67.3%
Austin Parker punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 8TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:1432% → 37%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
67.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
67.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 11 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
67.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 19 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
66.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 3 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+3
66.2%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q1 0:38
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+28
63.2%
David Eldridge 28 Yd pass from Kurt Benkert (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 9INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:3965% → 67%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
65.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 22 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
66.2%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
50
+1
65.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+9
65.1%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q2 13:53
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+5
65.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 5 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
66.5%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Bryce Hall return for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:1936% → 34%
Q2 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-12
63.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 3 yds to the Virg 34 VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Virg 19Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & 22
OWN 19
0
64.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 22
OWN 19
0
65.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Warren CraftSimilar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 22
OWN 19
+5
65.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 33 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 5 yds to the Virg 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11FG
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:2866% → 66%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
66.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 20 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
66.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 28Similar
Q2 12:51
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+8
66.7%
Daniel Jones run for 8 yds to the Virg 20Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
66.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Quay ChambersSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
66.3%
AJ Reed 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
66.0%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the Virg 36Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 4
OWN 36
-3
65.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 33Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+1
66.6%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q2 11:16
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
67.3%
Nicholas Conte punt for 65 yds, downed at the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13INT
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
66.0%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+1
65.8%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the Duke 4Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 7
OWN 4
+21
65.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 21 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.2%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
66.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 8 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
66.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 5 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
67.1%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 39
0
67.0%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Bryce Hall return for no gain to the Virg 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 2:0033% → 47%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
67.1%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the Virg 14Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
67.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+84
68.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to David Eldridge for 84 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.2%
Kurt Benkert run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.6%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd for a TD, (S Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15INT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0056% → 58%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
56.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+4
56.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
56.6%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
56.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 9 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
58.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Bryce HallSimilar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
57.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
57.8%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Quin Blanding return for no gain to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 1:4446% → 61%
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
53.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 7 yds to the Virg 42Similar
Q2 1:56
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
52.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+5
52.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
52.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 32 yds to the Duke 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-9
49.9%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Brandon Boyce for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 19
OPP 30
+3
51.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 16
OPP 27
+15
52.5%
Benkert, K pass incomplete to Craft, W, PENALTY DU pass interference (Hayes, J) 15 yards to the DU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+12
39.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds for a TD, (S Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17END OF HALF
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
42.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 10 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
42.7%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
42.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+9
43.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 9 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.4%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
42.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
42.4%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 34Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+9
43.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 48 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 9 yds to the Duke 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19FG
16 plays · 70 yds · 6:0339% → 45%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
38.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
39.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
39.4%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
39.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+12
38.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 12 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
41.1%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Virg 47Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
40.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 8 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+18
40.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 18 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
42.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+3
42.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 3 yds to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & 3
OPP 14
+6
40.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 6 yds to the Virg 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
42.5%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Virg 6Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
42.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 9:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
40.7%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Virg 3Similar
Q3 5:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
45.2%
AJ Reed 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2361% → 87%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
38.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 27Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
38.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 5 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
38.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 7 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+11
36.3%
Albert Reid run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
50
0
35.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 10
50
+8
35.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Duke 42Similar
Q3 5:40
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+33
35.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Andre Levrone for 33 yds to the Duke 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
34.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Albert Reid for 6 yds to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
34.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Duke 3Similar
Q3 1:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
13.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Richard Burney for 3 yds for a TD, (S Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:0818% → 19%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
18.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 6 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
18.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 4 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
18.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 6 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+6
18.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 6 yds to the Duke 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
19.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
50
0
20.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Jones for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
50
0
19.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
50
0
19.4%
Austin Parker punt for 23 yds, downed at the Virg 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-1
10.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
10.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q4 13:24
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+43
10.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 43 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4716% → 41%
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
15.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 9 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Andre Miles-Redmond) to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+43
17.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 43 yds to the Virg 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.3%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
26.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Corbin McCarthySimilar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
26.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 7 yds to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
26.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the Virg 45Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 3
OWN 45
-2
28.3%
Daniel Hamm run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0036% → 33%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
35.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Micah KiserSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+4
35.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+6
35.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 6 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
38.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+5
38.2%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
35.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete, broken up by Micah KiserSimilar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 5
OPP 28
-9
33.0%
Daniel Jones sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 26INT
7 plays · -1 yds · 0:3878% → 79%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
21.8%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
20.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 7:46
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+10
20.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & 27
OWN 36
+11
22.8%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Ben Humphreys return for 11 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-15
19.1%
VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 25
OWN 38
-2
21.5%
Kurt Benkert run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:1931% → 28%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
30.9%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
30.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 10
OPP 39
+8
29.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 8 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q4 6:05
4TH & 2
OPP 31
0
28.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider, broken up by Mark HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:4782% → 85%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
18.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
50
0
15.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
50
+5
15.6%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
13.0%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
14.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 44 yds, downed at the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:1122% → 3%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
22.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
3.4%
Daniel Jones sacked by Jordan Mack for a loss of 1 yard Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by Virg Eli Hanback , return for 0 yards for a TD, (S Hayward KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
3.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 4:24
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
3.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 15 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+15
3.8%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Juan Thornhill return for 15 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 31END OF GAME
7 plays · 8 yds · 3:0398% → 99%
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
1.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 1
OPP 31
-1
1.8%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
1.9%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
1.8%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 30Similar
Q4 3:37
2ND & 12
OPP 30
-1
2.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 31Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-1
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:34
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+23.6
TD · Q3 1:17
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Richard Burney for 3 yds for a TD, (S Hayward KICK)
-21.6
TD · Q2 0:12
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 12 yds for a TD, (S Hayward KICK)
-13.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com