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FSU

Florida State 55 at South Florida 35

USF
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-0.7USF 0.3%Deondre Francois run for 35 yds for aTD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)AWAY 55 - HOME 28 · Q4 8:46
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Q4 8:46 · Deondre Francois run for 35 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 157Home team on offense−52.6Score differential−37.8Pregame prior−2.5Garbage-time factor−19.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:25: Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 13 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +4.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 7:04: Ricky Aguayo 25 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +4.5 pts (now 30%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:18: Freddie Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: FSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:21: D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:39: D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK) — USF win probability +4.0 pts (now 4%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7FSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:43USF 4th & 13 at USF 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:36USF 4th & 4 at USF 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:10USF 4th & 1 at USF 34, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:03FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−0.9
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:13USF 4th & 11 at USF 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:04FSU 4th & 8 at USF 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%
    90% to make
    Punt
    66.7%−6.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:59FSU 4th & 15 at FSU 42, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−2.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:15USF 4th & 10 at USF 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:57USF 4th & 6 at USF 12, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:00FSU 4th & 11 at USF 40, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    97.0%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:33FSU 4th & 3 at USF 18, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    95.6%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:30USF 4th & 4 at FSU 42, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    0.5%−0.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 14:43USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 14:31FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 11:49USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 10:22FSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 6:11FSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q1 0:25FSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:18FSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:07FSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:22USF Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:21USF Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:46FSU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:39USF Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1TD
2 plays · 84 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
33.0%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Rodney Adams for 84 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
33.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 75 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:3033% → 36%
Q1 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
33.1%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+9
33.2%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+28
33.5%
Quinton Flowers run for 28 yds to the FlaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+16
33.7%
Quinton Flowers run for 16 yds to the FlaSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
33.8%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Ryeshene BronsonSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
33.9%
Rodney Adams run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 13Similar
Q1 12:21
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+8
34.2%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
34.5%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.6%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4TD
5 plays · 76 yds · 1:2765% → 66%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+21
35.2%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST down lat. to Jesus Wilson for 6 yds to the FlaSt 30 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+39
35.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 39 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
35.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+13
34.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:2735% → 35%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
34.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
34.9%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-5
35.0%
Quinton Flowers sacked by Brian Burns for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 8:43
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+13
34.8%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 50 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 13 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:2165% → 68%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
50
+27
34.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 27 yds to the SFla 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
34.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+9
34.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 9 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
35.0%
Deondre Francois run for 8 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.2%
Freddie Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3033% → 33%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
33.3%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-7
33.3%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+13
32.9%
Marlon Mack run for 13 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q1 4:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+16
33.0%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 54 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 16 yds to the FlaSt 47 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the FlaSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:4867% → 73%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
32.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+13
32.3%
Freddie Stevenson run for 13 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
32.1%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+14
32.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 14 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
32.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 11 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
32.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
32.0%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q1 0:25
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
27.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 13 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0728% → 28%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.9%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.7%
Marlon Mack run for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
28.2%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.0%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0273% → 73%
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
27.3%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 13:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
27.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 13:15
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
27.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 4
OWN 21
+8
27.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 41 yds , D'Ernest Johnson returns for 8 yds to the SFla 29 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:4128% → 26%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
27.5%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+11
26.6%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 11 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
26.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 2 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 11:46
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
26.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Elkanah Dillon) to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 11:20
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-5
26.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
25.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12FG
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0572% → 70%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
27.9%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+2
28.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 17 yds to the FlaSt 35 FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Alec Eberle) to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+13
27.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
27.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Kermit Whitfield for 8 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+45
26.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 45 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
25.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 11 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
25.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.7%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
25.2%
Deondre Francois sacked by Mike Love for a loss of 7 yards to the SFla 8Similar
Q2 7:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
29.7%
Ricky Aguayo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.5%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Tarvarus McFadden return for no gain to the FlaSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:2171% → 69%
Q2 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
29.4%
Deondre Francois sacked by Bruce Hector for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
30.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 6:08
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
30.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Kermit WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & 15
OWN 42
0
31.1%
Logan Tyler punt for 33 yds, downed at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:3024% → 22%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
23.6%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
23.5%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
22.5%
Quinton Flowers run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q2 4:15
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+12
22.3%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 38 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 12 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:4277% → 90%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
23.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 22 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
22.4%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+21
21.6%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 21 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
19.9%
Freddie Stevenson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 9Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
14.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 8 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.4%
Freddie Stevenson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17END OF HALF
12 plays · 44 yds · 1:0715% → 22%
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
14.6%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 17 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
15.7%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 49Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
16.7%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
16.2%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Marcus Lewis) to the FlaSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-7
17.6%
Quinton Flowers sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 7 yards to the FlaSt 36Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 17
OPP 36
0
14.7%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+18
14.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
15.9%
Quinton Flowers pass incomplete to D'Ernest JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-13
22.0%
Quinton Flowers sacked by DeMarcus Walker for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 3:0290% → 93%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
10.2%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
9.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q3 13:37
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+17
10.3%
Deondre Francois run for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 10
50
+3
8.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the SFla 47Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
7.2%
Deondre Francois sacked by Auggie Sanchez for a loss of 5 yards to the FlaSt 48 Deondre Francois fumbled, forced by Auggie Sanchez, recovered by SFla Auggie Sanchez , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
9.4%
Quinton Flowers pass intercepted Nate Andrews return for no gain to the FlaSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 4:2593% → 97%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
7.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 10
+18
7.2%
Deondre Francois run for 18 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
6.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 9:51
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+12
5.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Mavin Saunders for 12 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
5.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 15 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+27
5.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 27 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
4.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the SFla 6Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+3
4.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the SFla 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
4.4%
Freddie Stevenson run for 1 yd to the SFla 2Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.1%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:583% → 3%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
2.8%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 9Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+3
2.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 3 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 6
OWN 12
0
2.6%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 6
OWN 12
+18
2.5%
Jonathan Hernandez punt for 45 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for 18 yds to the SFla 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5397% → 97%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
3.0%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-1
3.0%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 5:09
3RD & 11
OPP 40
0
3.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q3 5:00
4TH & 11
OPP 40
0
3.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 30 yds, downed at the SFla 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23TD
5 plays · 90 yds · 1:082% → 5%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
2.2%
Darius Tice run for 2 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+5
2.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 5 yds to the SFla 17Similar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+48
2.1%
Quinton Flowers run for 48 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+11
2.5%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Darius Tice for 11 yds to the FlaSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
5.2%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 24 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:3197% → 99%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
3.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 43Similar
Q3 2:23
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+6
2.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 6 yds to the FlaSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
2.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 1:27
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
1.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
1.9%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+16
1.8%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 16 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
1.7%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
1.6%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+4
1.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+35
0.8%
Ricky Aguayo 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:042% → 4%
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
1.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 27 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
1.9%
Quinton Flowers run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 47Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-5
1.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marcus Norman) to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 14
OWN 48
+11
0.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 3
OPP 41
-1
0.7%
Quinton Flowers run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 42Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 4
OPP 42
+29
0.6%
Quinton Flowers run for 29 yds to the FlaSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
0.8%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to D'Ernest Johnson for 2 yds to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+7
0.8%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
3.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 4 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:1499% → 100%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
1.1%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
1.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 8:46
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+35
0.3%
Deondre Francois run for 35 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 0:510% → 4%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+52
0.3%
Quinton Flowers pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 52 yds to the FlaSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
0.4%
Quinton Flowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+13
0.3%
Quinton Flowers run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
0.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
4.4%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28END OF GAME
17 plays · 63 yds · 7:0499% → 100%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
1.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 28Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+9
1.0%
Deondre Francois run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
0.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q4 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+4
0.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 45Similar
Q4 4:45
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+3
0.6%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
0.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 3:20
2ND & 8
50
+2
0.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+16
0.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
0.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
0.5%
Jacques Patrick run for no gain to the SFla 28Similar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+8
0.6%
Jacques Patrick run for 8 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
0.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 2 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+5
0.5%
Jacques Patrick run for 5 yds to the SFla 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:25
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 13 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)
-4.7
FG · Q2 7:04
Ricky Aguayo 25 yd FG GOOD
+4.5
TD · Q4 7:39
D'Ernest Johnson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Emilio Nadelman KICK)
+4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com