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WAG

Wagner 10 at Boston College 42

BC
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
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Win probability · BC
modelBC aheadWAG aheadconfidence bandkey playBC scoreWAG score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Bryan Rafano punt for 38 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+48.5+24.30−24.3−48.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+48.5Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Blowout margin+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:50: Patrick Towles run for 17 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — WAG win probability +0.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 9:35: Jim Cooper 34 yd FG GOOD — WAG win probability +0.6 pts (now 5%) (top driver: WAG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:38: Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 58 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +1.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:19: Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +1.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:12: Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK) — BC win probability +1.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WAG made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00WAG 4th & 6 at WAG 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:56BC 4th & 16 at BC 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:43WAG 4th & 11 at WAG 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:07BC 4th & 1 at WAG 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.7%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00WAG 4th & 3 at WAG 27, down 7
    Close callPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:44BC 4th & 9 at BC 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:35WAG 4th & 13 at BC 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    3.9%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:25WAG 4th & 14 at WAG 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:02WAG 4th & 8 at WAG 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:43BC 4th & 2 at BC 35, up 18
    Close callPunted · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:44BC 4th & 2 at BC 33, up 18
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:04WAG 4th & 20 at WAG 16, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:18WAG 4th & 6 at WAG 33, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:32BC 4th & 14 at BC 34, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:40WAG 4th & 14 at WAG 22, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:32BC 4th & 1 at WAG 35, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00WAG 4th & 2 at WAG 33, down 32
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:49BC 4th & 2 at WAG 8, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:53WAG 4th & 5 at WAG 43, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6WAG made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:53WAG Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:43BC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:50BC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:38BC Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:19BC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:12BC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:08BC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAGDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
98.5%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Keith FosterSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
98.5%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Lucas DePofi for 4 yds to the Wagn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
98.5%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Denzel KnightSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
98.5%
Bryan Rafano punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
98.4%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the BC 37Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-10
98.4%
Hilliman,J rush for 6 yards to the BC43 (GRAHAM, Santoni;HAMPTON,Quintin), PENALTY BC HL 10 yards to the BC27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:56
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+2
98.4%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Davon Jones for 2 yds to the BC 29Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
98.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 26 yds, downed at the Wagn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 3TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
98.0%
Alex Thomson run for 55 yds for a TD, (Jim Cooper KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 4TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:1098% → 98%
Q1 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
98.1%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wagn 45Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+41
98.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 41 yds to the Wagn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-2
98.1%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 6Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 5 yds to the Wagn 1Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.9%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Andre YevchineczSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
97.9%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Keith Foster for 1 yd to the Wagn 27Similar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-2
97.9%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Denzel Knight for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 25Similar
Q1 9:43
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
97.9%
Bryan Rafano punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 6TD
12 plays · 68 yds · 6:1798% → 97%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
97.7%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+9
97.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 9 yds to the BC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
97.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 8 yds to the Wagn 49Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-1
97.7%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 3
50
+2
97.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 2 yds to the Wagn 48Similar
Q1 8:07
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
97.7%
Patrick Towles run for 2 yds to the Wagn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
97.7%
Patrick Towles run for 8 yds to the Wagn 38Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+1
97.7%
Myles Willis run for 1 yd to the Wagn 37Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+6
97.7%
Davon Jones run for 6 yds to the Wagn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
97.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Tommy Sweeney for 14 yds to the Wagn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
97.7%
Davon Jones run for no gain to the Wagn 17Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
97.3%
Patrick Towles run for 17 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:503% → 3%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
97.1%
Denzel Knight run for 3 yds to the Wagn 23Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+6
97.1%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Brandon Peoples for 6 yds to the Wagn 29Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-2
97.1%
Alex Thomson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 27
+4
96.9%
Bryan Rafano punt for 38 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 4 yds to the BC 31 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
96.9%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the BC 32Similar
Q2 14:44
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
96.9%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 30Similar
Q2 14:44
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
96.8%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
96.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wagn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 9FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 3:454% → 5%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
96.4%
Matthias McKinnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wagn 45Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 11
OWN 45
0
96.5%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Brandon PeoplesSimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 11
OWN 45
+14
96.5%
Matthias McKinnon run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 44 for a 1ST down BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
96.3%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Andre Yevchinecz for 12 yds to the BC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
96.2%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Keith Foster for 3 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q2 13:20
2ND & 7
OPP 26
0
96.2%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Frank LabadySimilar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+12
96.3%
Alex Thomson run for 12 yds to the BC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-3
96.2%
Matthias McKinnon run for a loss of 3 yards to the BC 17Similar
Q2 9:48
2ND & 13
OPP 17
0
95.7%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 13
OPP 17
0
96.0%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Denzel Knight, broken up by Kevin KavalecSimilar
Q2 9:35
4TH & 13
OPP 17
+34
95.4%
Jim Cooper 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 10TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5795% → 97%
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
95.3%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 1 yard to the BC 24Similar
Q2 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
95.3%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 24Similar
Q2 9:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+18
95.1%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 18 yds to the BC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
96.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 58 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:134% → 3%
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
96.4%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Keith Foster for 17 yds to the BC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.2%
Matthias McKinnon run for 4 yds to the BC 44Similar
Q2 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
96.2%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-8
96.2%
Alex Thomson sacked by Matt Milano for a loss of 8 yards to the Wagn 48Similar
Q2 6:25
4TH & 14
OWN 48
0
96.7%
Bryan Rafano punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 12TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:2597% → 98%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Jeff SmithSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+25
96.5%
Davon Jones run for 25 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+26
96.7%
Davon Jones run for 26 yds to the Wagn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
96.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 12 yds to the Wagn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
96.7%
Jon Hilliman run for 3 yds to the Wagn 14Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+5
96.7%
Davon Jones run for 5 yds to the Wagn 9Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 2
OPP 9
-5
96.6%
BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Wagn 14Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+13
96.6%
Patrick Towles run for 13 yds to the Wagn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.7%
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:173% → 3%
Q2 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
97.4%
Denzel Knight run for 2 yds to the Wagn 26Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
97.4%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Caleb Scepaniak for 1 yd to the Wagn 27Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+5
97.4%
Alex Thomson sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 7 yards to the Wagn 26 Alex Thomson fumbled, recovered by Wagn Titus Richards , return for 0 yards , return for 5 yds to the Wagn 26Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 8
OWN 26
+47
97.5%
Bryan Rafano punt for 32 yds, downed at the BOSTCOLL 42 BOSTON COLLEGE Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
97.8%
Patrick Towles run for 3 yds to the BC 30Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
97.8%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Thadd Smith for 5 yds to the BC 35Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
97.7%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Thadd Smith, broken up by Santoni GrahamSimilar
Q2 1:43
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
97.7%
Mike Knoll punt for 20 yds, downed at the Wagn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-11
97.1%
Alex Thomson sacked by Wyatt Ray and Kevin Kavalec for a loss of 11 yards to the Wagn 34Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 21
OWN 34
-2
97.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wagn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:1697% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Jon Hilliman run for no gain to the BC 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
97.2%
Jon Hilliman run for a loss of 2 yards to the BC 23Similar
Q3 13:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
97.3%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 10 yds to the BC 33Similar
Q3 13:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
97.3%
Mike Knoll punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jesse Flaherty at the Wagn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
97.0%
Matthias McKinnon run for 2 yds to the Wagn 28Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Ryan Owens WAGNER Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-12
97.1%
Alex Thomson sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 12 yards to the Wagn 16Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 20
OWN 16
+53
97.1%
Bryan Rafano punt for 43 yds , Tyler Rouse returns for 53 yds to the Wagn 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 18TD
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.1%
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:542% → 1%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
98.2%
Denzel Knight run for 1 yd to the Wagn 30Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 9
OWN 30
0
98.2%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Ryan OwensSimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 30
+3
99.2%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Jeffery Bost for 3 yds to the Wagn 33Similar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
99.2%
Bryan Rafano punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.5%
Myles Willis run for 6 yds to the BC 25Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+13
99.5%
Myles Willis run for 13 yds to the BC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.5%
Myles Willis run for 1 yd to the BC 39Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OWN 39
-5
99.5%
Tyler Rouse run for a loss of 5 yards to the BC 34Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 14
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Patrick Towles pass incomplete to Michael WalkerSimilar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 14
OWN 34
0
99.4%
Mike Knoll punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Andre Yevchinecz at the Wagn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.2%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Keith Foster for 2 yds to the Wagn 28Similar
Q3 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
99.2%
Denzel Knight run for 2 yds to the Wagn 30Similar
Q3 7:40
3RD & 6
OWN 30
-8
99.2%
Alex Thomson sacked by Harold Landry for a loss of 8 yards to the Wagn 22Similar
Q3 7:40
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Bryan Rafano punt for 32 yds, downed at the BC 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 22TD
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:24100% → 100%
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
99.7%
Davon Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 6
50
+6
99.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Chris Garrison for 6 yds to the Wagn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Patrick Towles pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.7%
Davon Jones run for 5 yds to the Wagn 39Similar
Q3 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 39
+4
99.7%
Davon Jones run for 4 yds to the Wagn 35Similar
Q3 5:32
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+6
99.6%
Davon Jones run for 6 yds to the Wagn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
99.7%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 17 yds to the Wagn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.7%
Tyler Rouse run for no gain to the Wagn 12Similar
Q3 5:32
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-15
99.7%
Towles,P pass incomplete to Garrison,C, PENALTY BC pass interference 15 yards to the WAGNER27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 25
OPP 27
+27
99.9%
Patrick Towles pass complete to Michael Walker for 27 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:080% → 0%
Q3 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Matthias McKinnon run for 3 yds to the Wagn 28Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Keith FosterSimilar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Denzel Knight run for 5 yds to the Wagn 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Bryan Rafano punt for 40 yds, downed at the BC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 65 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.9%
Davon Jones run for 4 yds to the BC 31Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
99.9%
Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the BC 34Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+5
99.9%
Darius Wade pass complete to Thadd Smith for 5 yds to the BC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Richard Wilson run for 4 yds to the BC 43Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+14
99.9%
Darius Wade pass complete to Colton Cardinal for 14 yds to the Wagn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
99.9%
Richard Wilson run for 10 yds to the Wagn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Darius Wade run for 3 yds to the Wagn 30Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+14
99.9%
Darius Wade pass complete to Colton Cardinal for 14 yds to the Wagn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
99.9%
Davon Jones run for 2 yds to the Wagn 14Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
Richard Wilson run for 5 yds to the Wagn 9Similar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Richard Wilson run for 1 yd to the Wagn 8Similar
Q4 14:49
4TH & 2
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Colton CardinalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAGDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
100.0%
THOMSON, Alex pass incomplete to FOSTER, Keith, PENALTY BC pass interference 15 yards to the WAGNER23, 1ST DOWN WAGNER, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
100.0%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Willie Dale for 6 yds to the Wagn 29Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Brandon Peoples for no gain to the Wagn 29Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+9
100.0%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Ryan Owens for 9 yds to the Wagn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Matthias McKinnon run for 2 yds to the Wagn 40Similar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
100.0%
Matthias McKinnon run for 3 yds to the Wagn 43Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Matthias McKinnonSimilar
Q4 7:53
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
100.0%
Bryan Rafano punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyler Rouse at the BC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCDrive 26END OF GAME
7 plays · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for 6 yds to the BC 26Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+19
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for 19 yds to the BC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the BC 41Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+12
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for 12 yds to the Wagn 47Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+3
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for 3 yds to the Wagn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for 6 yds to the Wagn 38Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 4
OPP 38
0
100.0%
Richard Wilson run for no gain to the Wagn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:12
Jon Hilliman run for 6 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q2 7:38
Patrick Towles pass complete to Jeff Smith for 58 yds for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 2:19
Patrick Towles run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Knoll KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com