2016 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2016 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadCLEM aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreCLEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:25 · Ryan Rodwell punt for 37 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 1 yd to the Clem 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- SAFETY · Q2 2:00: Team Safety — CLEM win probability +4.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00: Harrison Butker kickoff for 75 yds , Artavis Scott return for 23 yds to the Clem 28 — GT win probability +5.0 pts (now 16%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:21: Dedrick Mills 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +11.0 pts (now 14%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 13:14: Wayne Gallman run for 12 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST down — CLEM win probability +6.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
- FG · Q4 9:57: Greg Huegel 47 yd FG GOOD — GT win probability +4.1 pts (now 7%) (top driver: CLEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 9:18GT 4th & 16 at GT 19, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.5% before the snapGo for it25.4%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.7%average punt
- Q1 6:39CLEM 4th & 5 at GT 10, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.2% before the snapGo for it74.1%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call74.1%88% to makePunt72.7%−1.5average punt
- Q1 5:09GT 4th & 17 at GT 13, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it25.6%−0.713% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.2%average punt
- Q2 14:07GT 4th & 7 at CLEM 43, down 14Close callPunted · 23.6% before the snapGo for it23.8%37% to convertField goal23.3%−0.528% to makePuntTheir call23.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 12:55CLEM 4th & 8 at CLEM 4, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snapGo for it76.5%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.9%average punt
- Q2 9:45GT 4th & 17 at CLEM 47, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.2% before the snapGo for it20.5%−1.114% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.6%average punt
- Q2 4:48CLEM 4th & 9 at GT 41, up 14Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it80.1%32% to convertField goal79.6%−0.532% to makePuntTheir call79.7%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:48GT 4th & 6 at GT 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snapGo for it18.5%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.1%average punt
- Q3 9:32GT 4th & 15 at GT 26, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.8% before the snapGo for it4.6%−2.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.9%average punt
- Q3 8:21CLEM 4th & 3 at CLEM 42, up 23Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snapGo for it95.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:25GT 4th & 7 at GT 28, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.736% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.6%average punt
- Q3 4:25CLEM 4th & 1 at GT 45, up 23Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snapGo for it96.6%70% to convertField goal95.6%−1.025% to makePuntTheir call95.9%−0.7average punt
- Q4 10:58CLEM 4th & 2 at CLEM 45, up 16Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snapGo for it93.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.9%−0.6average punt
- Q4 9:57CLEM 4th & 13 at GT 29, up 16Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.0%−0.820% to convertField goalTheir call93.7%58% to makePunt91.1%−2.6average punt
- Q4 7:48GT 4th & 25 at GT 36, down 19Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snapGo for it2.5%−0.87% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.2%average punt
- Q4 4:22CLEM 4th & 3 at GT 47, up 19Close callPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.3%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:51GT 4th & 2 at GT 23, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.7%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt1.3%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1CLEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 11:25CLEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.1%97% to makeGo for two74.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:26CLEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.2%97% to makeGo for two76.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:04CLEM Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.6%97% to makeGo for two89.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:21GT Touchdown, down 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call7.3%97% to makeGo for two7.2%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLEMDrive 1TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2481% → 80%
Q1 14:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
19.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 2 yds to the Clem 32Similar
Q1 14:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
19.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 9 yds to the Clem 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
20.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Jordan Leggett for 14 yds to the GTech 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+17
20.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 17 yds to the GTech 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2FUMBLE6 plays · -6 yds · 2:0220% → 20%
Q1 9:18
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+11
20.3%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 39 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 11 yds to the GTech 47 Ray-Ray McCloud fumbled, recovered by Clem Chad SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 3MISSED FG10 plays · 37 yds · 2:3380% → 79%
GTDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2421% → 21%
Q1 5:43
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-7
21.0%
Justin Thomas sacked by Carlos Watkins for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 13Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+49
21.0%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the GATECH 48 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Clem 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 5TD8 plays · 62 yds · 2:3879% → 82%
Q1 4:35
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+12
20.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Cornell Powell for 12 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+18
21.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 18 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
20.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 3 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+25
20.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Trevion Thompson for 25 yds to the GTech 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 3:1419% → 20%
Q1 1:05
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+15
19.2%
Thomas, Justin pass incomplete to Searcy, Qua, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Smith, Van) 15 yards to the CLEMSON46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
19.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Marcus Marshall for no gain to the Clem 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:0782% → 82%
Q2 13:07
3RD & 8
OWN 4
0
18.2%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Artavis Scott, broken up by Lamont SimmonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 5 yds · 3:0520% → 18%
CLEMDrive 9PUNT14 plays · 49 yds · 4:5183% → 83%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
17.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 9 yds to the Clem 19Similar
Q2 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
16.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 9 yds to the Clem 31Similar
Q2 8:29
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+1
16.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Deon Cain for 1 yd to the Clem 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+5
16.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Adam Choice for 5 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
15.9%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 6 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 4
OPP 36
-5
15.8%
Deshaun Watson sacked by Patrick Gamble for a loss of 5 yards to the GTech 41Similar
Q2 4:48
4TH & 9
OPP 41
0
16.8%
Andy Teasdall punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5417% → 17%
Q2 3:48
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+5
16.8%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 36 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 5 yds to the GTech 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 11SF6 plays · 29 yds · 1:4184% → 89%
CLEMDrive 12TD14 plays · 72 yds · 1:5188% → 93%
Q2 1:27
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+10
12.1%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 10 yds to the Clem 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
11.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 9 yds to the GATECH 48 CLEMSON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the Clem 41Similar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 12
OWN 41
+18
11.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Cornell Powell for 18 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+28
10.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Mike Williams for 28 yds to the GTech 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
11.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 10 yds to the GTech 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14PUNT11 plays · 15 yds · 5:1310% → 5%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
10.2%
Mills, Dedrick rush for 2 yards to the GATECH13, PENALTY CLEMSON offside (Wilkins, Christian) 5 yards to the GATECH16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:28
2ND & 11
OWN 30
-8
8.0%
Dedrick Mills run for 2 yds to the GTech 32 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Shamire Devine) to the GTech 22Similar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 8
OWN 33
-7
5.6%
Justin Thomas sacked by Dorian O'Daniel for a loss of 7 yards to the GTech 26Similar
Q3 9:32
4TH & 15
OWN 26
0
5.1%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0295% → 96%
GTDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 1:495% → 4%
Q3 6:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+1
4.3%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 37 yds , Ray-Ray McCloud returns for 1 yd to the Clem 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 19 yds · 1:5397% → 98%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
3.0%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 5 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
2.8%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Artavis Scott for 1 yd to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
2.4%
Andy Teasdall punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD15 plays · 89 yds · 5:594% → 14%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
3.7%
Marshall, Marcus rush for 3 yards to the GATECH14, PENALTY CLEMSON offside (Yeargin, Richard) 5 yards to the GATECH16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
3.5%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 6 yds to the GTech 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+5
3.3%
CLEMSON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Carlos Watkins) to the Clem 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
3.3%
Thomas, Justin pass pass intended for Jeune, Ricky intercepted by Edmond, Marcus at the CLEMSON2, Edmond, Marcus return 18 yards to the CLEMSON20, PENALTY CLEMSON pass interference (Edmond, Marcus) 15 yards to the CLEMSON25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN GATECH.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 19PUNT7 plays · 20 yds · 2:1696% → 96%
Q4 10:58
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
3.6%
Andy Teasdall punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
8.1%
Dedrick Mills pass intercepted Van Smith return for 8 yds to the GTech 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 21FG4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4597% → 93%
Q4 10:02
3RD & 12
OPP 29
0
3.1%
Deshaun Watson pass incomplete to Cornell Powell, broken up by Corey GriffinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 11 yds · 2:024% → 4%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
4.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Brad Stewart for 26 yds to the Clem 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-16
4.2%
Justin Thomas sacked by Ryan Carter for a loss of 16 yards to the GTech 36Similar
Q4 7:48
4TH & 25
OWN 36
0
3.7%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ray-Ray McCloud at the Clem 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 23PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2092% → 98%
Q4 5:46
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+11
2.4%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Ray-Ray McCloud for 11 yds to the Clem 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
1.7%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Cornell Powell for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 6
50
+3
1.6%
Deshaun Watson pass complete to Wayne Gallman for 3 yds to the GTech 47Similar
Q4 4:22
4TH & 3
OPP 47
0
1.7%
Andy Teasdall punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 9 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
2.1%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky Jeune, broken up by Marcus EdmondSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLEMDrive 25END OF GAME5 plays · 18 yds · 2:1199% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:21
Dedrick Mills 2 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+11
KEY PLAY · Q4 13:14
Wayne Gallman run for 12 yds to the Clem 37 for a 1ST down
-6.2
KEY PLAY · Q2 2:00
Harrison Butker kickoff for 75 yds , Artavis Scott return for 23 yds to the Clem 28
+5