2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · WAKE
modelWAKE aheadDEL aheadconfidence bandkey playWAKE scoreDEL score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:56 · Mike Weaver 31 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 0:02: Blake Rankin pass complete to Diante Cherry for 6 yds for a TD, (Frank Raggo KICK) — DEL win probability +1.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 6:17: Thomas Jefferson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Frank Raggo KICK) — DEL win probability +4.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: DEL has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:44: Matt Colburn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:05: John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +3.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:45: John Wolford run for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +2.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WAKE made the numbers' call on 4 of 5DEL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 15:00DEL 4th & 13 at DEL 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.8%average punt
- Q1 10:44DEL 4th & 8 at DEL 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.3%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q1 8:26WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 30, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it92.1%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.3%average punt
- Q1 6:44DEL 4th & 9 at DEL 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q1 2:48WAKE 4th & 3 at DEL 24, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snapGo for it91.5%52% to convertField goalTheir call91.4%−0.168% to makePunt90.6%−0.9average punt
- Q1 2:48DEL 4th & 7 at DEL 28, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.3% before the snapGo for it8.3%−0.236% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call8.5%average punt
- Q2 11:58DEL 4th & 10 at DEL 36, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.329% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.2%average punt
- Q3 11:05DEL 4th & 4 at DEL 31, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.5%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.9%average punt
- Q3 4:45DEL 4th & 19 at DEL 16, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.2%−0.610% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00WAKE 4th & 1 at DEL 21, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%71% to convertField goal98.5%−0.274% to makePunt97.8%−1.0average punt
- Q4 11:56WAKE 4th & 13 at DEL 13, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.8%−0.217% to convertField goalTheir call99.0%85% to makePunt98.3%−0.7average punt
- Q4 8:03WAKE 4th & 1 at DEL 42, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call97.4%70% to convertField goal96.5%−1.030% to makePunt96.6%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WAKE made the numbers' call on 5 of 5DEL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 10:44WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:02DEL Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call10.8%97% to makeGo for two10.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:58WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.1%97% to makeGo for two91.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 6:17DEL Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call13.5%97% to makeGo for two13.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:44WAKE Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call89.9%97% to makeGo for two89.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:05WAKE Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.6%97% to makeGo for two93.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:45WAKE Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.5%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:03DEL Touchdown, down 18 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.4%97% to makeGo for two2.3%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartDELDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 2TD6 plays · 53 yds · 2:4595% → 94%
DELDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 10:44
4TH & 8
OWN 29
0
94.2%
William Stephenson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 4PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 8:26
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-9
93.9%
Kendall Hinton sacked by Cam Kitchen for a loss of 9 yards to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 5PUNT4 plays · 1 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q1 6:44
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
93.7%
William Stephenson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 6FG8 plays · 43 yds · 2:5593% → 93%
Q1 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.4%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Tabari Hines, broken up by Ray JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
WAKEDrive 8INT3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 1:09
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-3
92.6%
John Wolford pass intercepted Tenny Adewusi return for 7 yds to the WFrst 27 WAKE FOREST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the WFrst 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 9TD3 plays · 10 yds · 0:518% → 10%
WAKEDrive 10TD9 plays · 71 yds · 3:0291% → 93%
DELDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 13 yds · 0:008% → 7%
Q2 11:58
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+13
92.7%
Blake Rankin pass complete to Andrew Verboys for 13 yds to the Delaw 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 12FUMBLE3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q2 9:08
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+3
91.7%
Tyler Bell run for 3 yds to the WFrst 19 Tyler Bell fumbled, forced by Maurice Harley, recovered by Delaw Ray JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 13TD5 plays · 19 yds · 1:279% → 14%
WAKEDrive 14TD18 plays · 75 yds · 5:3388% → 93%
Q2 6:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
88.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Matt Colburn for 11 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+11
89.3%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 11 yds to the Delaw 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
89.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 10 yds to the Delaw 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:17
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+12
89.1%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 12 yds to the Delaw 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 15END OF HALF2 plays · 7 yds · 0:008% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5591% → 96%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
91.8%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Tabari Hines, broken up by Ray JonesSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+13
91.8%
John Wolford pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 13 yds to the Delaw 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.4%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
WAKEDrive 18TD9 plays · 70 yds · 4:0697% → 99%
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
96.5%
John Wolford pass complete to Chuck Wade for 8 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-5
96.6%
Wolford, J sideline pass complete to Lewis, C for 10 yards to the DELAWARE45, out-of-bounds (Brown, Malcolm), PENALTY WF ineligible downfield on pass (Haynes, P) 5 yards to the WF40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+7
96.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 7 yds to the WFrst 47Similar
Q3 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+34
96.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Cam Serigne for 34 yds to the Delaw 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 19PUNT5 plays · -9 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Blake Rankin pass incomplete to Jamie Jarmon, broken up by Thomas BrownSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-11
98.5%
Blake Rankin sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 11 yards to the Delaw 16Similar
Q3 4:45
4TH & 19
OWN 16
0
98.6%
William Stephenson punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates at the WFrst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20MISSED FG15 plays · 44 yds · 6:1399% → 99%
Q3 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Steven Claude for 13 yds to the Delaw 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:09
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+10
99.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Scotty Washington for 10 yds to the Delaw 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
99.2%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Nathan Gilliam) to the Delaw 13Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
99.2%
John Wolford pass incomplete to Scotty Washington, broken up by Malcolm BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DELDrive 21FUMBLE RETURN TD15 plays · 80 yds · 3:531% → 2%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
99.1%
Blake Rankin pass complete to Diante Cherry for 10 yds to the Delaw 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
99.1%
Blake Rankin pass incomplete to Diante Cherry, broken up by Chris CalhounSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 10
OWN 46
+10
99.2%
Rankin, Blake deep pass incomplete to Cherry, Diante, PENALTY WF holding (Henderson, A) 10 yards to the WF44, 1ST DOWN DELAWARE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+15
99.1%
Rankin, Blake deep pass incomplete to Cherry, Diante, PENALTY WF pass interference (Okonye, J) 15 yards to the WF29, 1ST DOWN DELAWARE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 15
OPP 34
+15
99.0%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brad Watson) to the WFrst 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
99.0%
Blake Rankin pass complete to Diante Cherry for 6 yds to the WFrst 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22END OF GAME13 plays · 33 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:17
Thomas Jefferson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Frank Raggo KICK)
-4.3
TD · Q3 11:05
John Wolford pass complete to Alex Bachman for 4 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 0:44
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
+3.1