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UVA

Virginia 10 at UConn 13

CONN
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Justin Wain punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+19.5+9.80−9.8−19.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 96Pregame prior+9.2Home team on offense−6.1Garbage-time factor−2.9Score differential−2.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. INT · Q4 12:04: Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Jamar Summers return for no gain to the Virg 37 — UVA win probability +13.9 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 11:59: Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel Thomas — CONN win probability +10.0 pts (now 40%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:55: Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK) — CONN win probability +25.9 pts (now 68%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 4:56: Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the UConn 27 — CONN win probability +10.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 1:33: Bobby Puyol 43 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +28.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UVA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UVA 4th & 7 at UVA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:51CONN 4th & 1 at UVA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.9%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18UVA 4th & 5 at CONN 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.3%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:18CONN 4th & 15 at UVA 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:42CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 38, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:49UVA 4th & 6 at UVA 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:43CONN 4th & 3 at UVA 4, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    45% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.4%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−6.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:43UVA 4th & 13 at CONN 48, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05CONN 4th & 4 at CONN 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:44UVA 4th & 4 at CONN 48, up 7
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.6%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−1.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:11UVA 4th & 10 at UVA 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−2.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:07CONN 4th & 4 at UVA 39, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.5 ptsPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.6%−2.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:31UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:22CONN 4th & 2 at UVA 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−3.6
    45% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−5.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00UVA 4th & 20 at UVA 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−3.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:44UVA 4th & 1 at CONN 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    42.2%−7.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−28.3
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:33CONN 4th & 10 at UVA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.4%−5.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−25.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:33UVA 4th & 10 at CONN 43, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.0%
    28% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−6.5
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:00UVA 4th & 2 at CONN 2, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−36.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1UVA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 12:42UVA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 7:55CONN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.7%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.4%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UConn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
68.3%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UConn 47Similar
Q1 13:51
2ND & 7
OWN 47
-2
68.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 45Similar
Q1 13:51
3RD & 9
OWN 45
+8
68.2%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 8 yds to the Virg 47Similar
Q1 13:51
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
68.3%
Justin Wain punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3FG
12 plays · 86 yds · 4:3932% → 34%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
68.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 3
OWN 16
+6
68.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
68.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+16
67.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 16 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
67.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 13 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+24
67.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 24 yds to the UConn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
67.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 6 yds to the UConn 13Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+8
67.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 8 yds to the UConn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Obi MelifonwuSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.6%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the UConn 5Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
67.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
66.3%
Alex Furbank 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the UConn 26Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+16
66.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 16 yds to the UConn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
67.1%
Ron Johnson run for no gain to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
67.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 44Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
67.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 11
OPP 44
-4
66.8%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Micah Kiser and Zach Bradshaw for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 48Similar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 15
OPP 48
0
66.2%
Justin Wain punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
15 plays · 90 yds · 6:1734% → 43%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
65.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Virg 16Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+5
65.7%
BENKERT, Kurt pass incomplete to DOWLING, Doni, PENALTY UCONN offside 5 yards to the VA21, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
65.6%
BENKERT, Kurt pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Keeon (MELIFONWU, Obi), PENALTY UCONN pass interference (MELIFONWU, Obi) 15 yards to the VA36, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
65.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+3
65.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 3 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+8
65.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 8 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
64.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the UConn 44Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
64.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+7
64.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 7 yds to the UConn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
64.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 2 yds to the UConn 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+3
62.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the UConn 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+14
62.5%
Albert Reid run for 14 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
62.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 2 yds to the UConn 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+7
62.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 7 yds to the UConn 9Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+9
56.7%
Albert Reid run for 9 yds for a TD, (Alex Furbank KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
56.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 11 yds to the UConn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
56.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Ron Johnson for 3 yds to the UConn 39Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
56.9%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 1 yard to the UConn 38Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 8
OWN 38
0
56.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Ron JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 8
OWN 38
0
55.5%
Justin Wain punt for 48 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for no gain to the Virg 14 Daniel Hamm fumbled, recovered by Virg Daniel HammSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
56.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+10
56.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 10 yds to the Virg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
55.6%
BENKERT, Kurt pass complete to MIZZELL, Taquan for 6 yards to the VA34 (MELIFONWU, Obi), PENALTY VA holding 4 yards to the VA24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:49
1ST & 14
OWN 24
0
56.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:49
2ND & 14
OWN 24
0
56.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q2 10:49
3RD & 14
OWN 24
+8
56.6%
Kurt Benkert run for 8 yds to the Virg 32Similar
Q2 10:49
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
56.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 8FG
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:3252% → 56%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
52.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 17Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+53
52.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 38 yds to the UCONN 45 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Quin Blanding) to the Virg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
55.3%
Arkeel Newsome run for 19 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
55.3%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+4
55.3%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+1
54.3%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. sacked for loss of 5 yards to the VA8 (KISER, Micah), PENALTY VA offside 1 yards to the VA2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-2
54.3%
Ron Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 4Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+21
55.5%
Bobby Puyol 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
52.9%
BENKERT, Kurt pass incomplete to DOWLING, Doni, PENALTY VA illegal formation 5 yards to the VA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
53.4%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
53.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+15
54.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 15 yds to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+20
52.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 5 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (Jhavon Williams) to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
50.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the UConn 45Similar
Q2 4:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
50.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 4 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q2 4:43
3RD & 6
OPP 41
-2
50.9%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 2 yards to the UConn 43Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 8
OPP 43
-5
52.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UConn 48Similar
Q2 4:43
4TH & 13
OPP 48
0
53.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2451% → 49%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
51.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 13
-3
51.0%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Micah Kiser for a loss of 3 yards to the UConn 10Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+9
50.0%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyler Davis for 9 yds to the UConn 19Similar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+11
48.8%
Justin Wain punt for 46 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 11 yds to the Virg 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:1154% → 54%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson, broken up by Junior JosephSimilar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
46.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the UConn 48Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
44.1%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
45.9%
Nicholas Conte punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
49.6%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Mark Hall for a loss of 5 yards to the UConn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
48.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 5 yds to the UConn 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
49.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 13 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
50.9%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
51.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete, broken up by Andrew BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
49.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for no gain to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
48.1%
Justin Wain punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Daniel Hamm at the Virg 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
45.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni Dowling, broken up by Vontae DiggsSimilar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+1
45.6%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Virg 13Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+1
46.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the Virg 27 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (-13 Yards) to the Virg 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
45.3%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-5
45.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 5 yards to the Virg 14Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
46.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
47.4%
Nicholas Conte punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UConn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
46.5%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+14
47.7%
Arkeel Newsome run for 14 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
49.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 7 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 3
OPP 38
-1
49.4%
Bryant Shirreffs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 39Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
48.9%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Juan ThornhillSimilar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
46.9%
Justin Wain punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Virg 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0059% → 57%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
40.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 19Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+4
41.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 4 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
41.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete, broken up by Luke CarrezolaSimilar
Q3 7:31
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
42.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UConn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17INT
11 plays · 30 yds · 3:4746% → 46%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
45.5%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+1
46.3%
Ron Johnson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 6
50
+7
45.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Ron Johnson for 7 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
47.0%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+3
46.9%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 3 yds to the Virg 37Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+2
46.6%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 2 yds to the Virg 35Similar
Q3 2:22
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+9
43.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Alec Bloom for 9 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
48.2%
Ron Johnson run for 2 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
48.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Arkeel NewsomeSimilar
Q3 2:22
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
45.7%
Bryant Shirreffs pass intercepted, touchback. Juan Thornhill return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:1364% → 65%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
36.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+26
36.2%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 26 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
33.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 11 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
32.1%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the UConn 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-12
30.5%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Folorunso Fatukasi for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 47
0
33.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise Dubois, broken up by Jamar SummersSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
35.2%
Nicholas Conte punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19FUMBLE
6 plays · 54 yds · 0:0035% → 43%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
35.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for 8 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+17
37.6%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 17 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+11
38.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 11 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
40.7%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. pass incomplete to MAYALA, Hergy, PENALTY VA pass interference (THORNHILL, Juan) 15 yards to the VA29, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
43.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 6 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-7
43.4%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 26 Arkeel Newsome fumbled, recovered by Virg Andrew BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 20INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
29.4%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Jamar Summers return for no gain to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21TD
11 plays · 37 yds · 4:0440% → 68%
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
39.5%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
39.3%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Tyler DavisSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+22
37.8%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 22 yds to the Virg 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
42.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 17Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 12
OPP 17
-8
42.0%
Bryant Shirreffs sacked by Andrew Brown for a loss of 8 yards to the Virg 25Similar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 20
OPP 25
+13
36.5%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. pass incomplete to MAYALA, Hergy, PENALTY VA pass interference (THORNHILL, Juan) 13 yards to the VA12, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
42.2%
Arkeel Newsome run for 2 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
42.2%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Hergy MayalaSimilar
Q4 11:59
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+5
39.6%
SHIRREFFS, Bry. pass incomplete to THOMAS, Noel, PENALTY VA face mask 5 yards to the VA5, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
42.2%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.1%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 22DOWNS
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:1145% → 49%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
55.1%
Taquan Mizzell run for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
53.9%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
52.1%
Albert Reid run for 28 yds to the UConn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
47.8%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q4 7:55
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+1
47.6%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the UConn 27Similar
Q4 5:44
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
47.9%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the UConn 24Similar
Q4 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
50.8%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the UConn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23FG
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:2361% → 88%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
61.1%
Arkeel Newsome run for 3 yds to the UConn 27Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+4
61.8%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 4 yds to the UConn 31Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+20
60.7%
Bryant Shirreffs run for 20 yds to the Virg 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+23
66.4%
Bryant Shirreffs pass complete to Noel Thomas for 23 yds to the Virg 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
69.1%
Ron Johnson run for 4 yds to the Virg 22Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
69.1%
Bryant Shirreffs pass incomplete to Noel ThomasSimilar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-4
66.8%
Arkeel Newsome run for a loss of 4 yards to the Virg 26Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 10
OPP 26
+43
88.3%
Bobby Puyol 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 24MISSED FG
10 plays · 73 yds · 1:3315% → 17%
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
85.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 32 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
79.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Albert ReidSimilar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
80.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
82.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 10
OPP 43
+34
84.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 34 yds to the UConn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
76.4%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the UConn 5Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
78.4%
Kurt Benkert run for 3 yds to the UConn 2Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
83.4%
Alex Furbank 20 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 1:33
Bobby Puyol 43 yd FG GOOD
+28.3
TD · Q4 7:55
Bryant Shirreffs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bobby Puyol KICK)
+25.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+16.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com