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PITT

Pittsburgh 38 at Oklahoma State 45

OKST
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Boone Pickens Stadium
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Win probability · OKST
modelOKST aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playOKST scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-0.2OKST 65.1%Ben Grogan 45 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 10 · Q1 4:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:26 · Ben Grogan 45 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 39Pregame prior+12.4Home team on offense+0.8Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Garbage-time factor−0.3Time remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:47: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 60 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +10.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:25: Mason Rudolph sacked for loss of 5 yds, fumble by Mason Rudolph, recovered by Matt Galambos 2 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Blewitt Kick) — PITT win probability +13.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:01: Rennie Childs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +13.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:28: Quadree Henderson run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +19.3 pts (now 46%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:28: Rennie Childs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK) — OKST win probability +39.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OKST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9PITT made the numbers' call on 12 of 14
  1. Q1 10:24OKST 4th & 9 at PITT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.5%
    51% to make
    Punt
    66.4%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:51PITT 4th & 4 at OKST 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.4%−0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    34.2%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:26OKST 4th & 11 at PITT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    62.8%−1.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:42PITT 4th & 9 at OKST 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:37PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.2%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:59PITT 4th & 1 at OKST 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−7.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:17PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:49OKST 4th & 4 at OKST 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:18PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:31PITT 4th & 10 at OKST 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−1.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:07PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:25OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.5%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:30OKST 4th & 15 at OKST 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−4.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.2%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:55PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−1.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53OKST 4th & 21 at OKST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−5.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:55PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 37, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%−1.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:55OKST 4th & 5 at OKST 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%−2.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:30PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−7.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:45OKST 4th & 9 at OKST 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−3.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:46PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.0%−5.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:14OKST 4th & 7 at PITT 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    53.5%−5.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%−1.7
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:07PITT 4th & 9 at PITT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:35PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.5%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OKST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PITT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:44OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:09PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:09OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:44OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:59PITT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:04OKST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:47PITT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:25PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:01OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:28PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:28OKST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.7%−1.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OKSTDrive 1TD
2 plays · 91 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
65.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 91 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:3135% → 35%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
65.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 22 yds to the OKSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
65.2%
Jordan Whitehead run for 6 yds to the OKSt 42Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+32
65.3%
James Conner run for 32 yds to the OKSt 10 for a 1ST down OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
64.7%
Quadree Henderson run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 43 yds · 2:3665% → 65%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
65.0%
Justice Hill run for 18 yds to the OKSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
65.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
65.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 11 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
65.2%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 49Similar
Q1 12:20
1ST & 15
OWN 49
-5
65.0%
OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+3
65.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 3 yds to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 17
OWN 47
0
64.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 17
OWN 47
+20
64.8%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Austin Hays for 20 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
65.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+1
65.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 1 yd to the Pitt 32Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
65.4%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 9
OPP 32
+49
65.1%
Ben Grogan 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4FG
10 plays · 38 yds · 4:2935% → 36%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
64.7%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+12
64.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to George Aston for 12 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
64.3%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+10
64.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 10 yds to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+8
63.9%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the OKSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
63.6%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
63.5%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the OKSt 32Similar
Q1 6:25
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+2
63.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Darrin Hall for 2 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
63.6%
Chris Blewitt 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 5FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 1:1964% → 65%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.3%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the OKSt 30Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
64.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+43
64.3%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 43 yds to the OKLAST 27 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Avonte Maddox) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
66.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
66.0%
Rennie Childs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 11
OPP 28
0
65.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 11
OPP 28
+45
65.1%
Ben Grogan 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 3:3536% → 36%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
64.5%
Quadree Henderson run for 6 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
64.1%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+25
64.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 25 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
62.5%
Tre Tipton run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 47Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+7
62.8%
Nathan Peterman run for 7 yds to the OKSt 40Similar
Q1 1:25
3RD & 5
OPP 40
-4
62.4%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Cole Walterscheid for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 44Similar
Q1 0:42
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
63.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 43 yds, downed at the OKSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 2:2665% → 72%
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
64.6%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the OKSt 3Similar
Q1 0:08
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+9
64.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 9 yds to the OKSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
64.7%
Justice Hill run for 4 yds to the OKSt 16Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+12
64.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 12 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.0%
Justice Hill run for no gain to the OKSt 28Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+28
64.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 28 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
66.4%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Lacy, Chris, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Lewis, Ryan) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH29, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
71.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 29 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2829% → 28%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
70.6%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Cole Walterscheid for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 15 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Nathan Peterman) to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 20
OWN 15
-2
70.9%
James Conner run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 13Similar
Q2 12:15
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+12
71.5%
James Conner run for 12 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for 3 yds to the OKSt 28 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Dillon Stoner) to the OKSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:4171% → 80%
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Rennie Childs run for no gain to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
70.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q2 10:58
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+50
70.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 50 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
72.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 2 yds to the Pitt 28Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+4
72.7%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 4 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 24
+5
72.2%
Justice Hill run for 5 yds to the Pitt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+15
72.9%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Seales, Jhajuan, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Motley, Phillipie) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
73.0%
Rennie Childs run for 3 yds to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.8%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 4:2623% → 28%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 5
OWN 22
+55
77.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 55 yds to the OKSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
75.9%
Darrin Hall run for 8 yds to the OKSt 15Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 15
0
76.1%
Darrin Hall run for no gain to the OKSt 15Similar
Q2 7:43
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+2
77.0%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the OKSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
76.6%
Conner, James rush for 2 yards to the OKLAST11, PENALTY OKLAST offside (Webber, Tralund) 5 yards to the OKLAST8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 5
OPP 8
+5
76.7%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the OKSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
76.9%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the OKSt 2Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.1%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
78.1%
Nathan Peterman run for no gain to the OKSt 1Similar
Q2 4:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 11TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5173% → 81%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for loss of 6 yds to the OKSt 19 lat. to James Washington for 3 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
73.2%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 11 yds to the OKSt 33Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
80.9%
Rennie Childs run for 67 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:4220% → 19%
Q2 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Rafael Araujo-LopesSimilar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
80.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 21 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
79.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
80.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
80.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 10
OWN 46
+9
81.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 41 yds , Barry Sanders returns for 9 yds to the OKSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 13FUMBLE
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:0482% → 84%
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
82.0%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 20Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+13
82.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 13 yds to the OKSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
82.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 14 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+11
83.0%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 11 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
83.6%
Mason Rudolph run for 2 yds to the Pitt 40 Mason Rudolph fumbled, recovered by Pitt Shane RoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
73.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 60 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:5174% → 73%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds to the OKSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
74.3%
Barry Sanders run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 32Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+11
73.4%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Chris Lacy for 11 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q2 0:50
3RD & 4
OWN 43
0
74.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 4
OWN 43
0
73.3%
Zach Sinor punt blocked by George Aston blocked by George AstonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:2327% → 26%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
73.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
73.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q2 0:30
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
74.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 5 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q2 0:18
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
74.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 32 yds, downed at the OKSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
73.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:2428% → 26%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.2%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
71.6%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
71.1%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
70.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 4 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+7
70.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Rafael Araujo-Lopes for 7 yds to the OKSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
69.9%
Quadree Henderson run for 1 yd to the OKSt 46Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-1
70.1%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the OKSt 47Similar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
71.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
73.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 36 yds, downed at the OKSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 19FUMBLE RETURN TD
1 play · -9 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
60.8%
Mason Rudolph sacked for loss of 5 yds, fumble by Mason Rudolph, recovered by Matt Galambos 2 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Blewitt Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:1161% → 81%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
60.9%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 21Similar
Q3 9:53
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+35
60.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 35 yds to the Pitt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
64.9%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
64.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jhajuan SealesSimilar
Q3 9:31
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+14
64.1%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 14 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
67.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 25 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.5%
Rennie Childs run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4826% → 24%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
74.5%
Chawntez Moss run for 4 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q3 8:22
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
72.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
74.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+11
75.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for 11 yds to the OKSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3379% → 77%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
78.9%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to James Washington for 5 yds to the OKSt 24Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 5
OWN 24
0
79.2%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
78.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+7
77.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 43 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 7 yds to the Pitt 31 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dane Jackson) to the Pitt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:3225% → 46%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
75.1%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for 4 yds to the Pitt 34Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+14
74.5%
James Conner run for 14 yds to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
73.0%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:28
2ND & 8
50
+50
53.7%
Quadree Henderson run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:5062% → 59%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
62.1%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 5 yards to the OKSt 20Similar
Q3 4:49
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
61.1%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 4:42
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
59.6%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
58.8%
Zach Sinor punt for 65 yds, downed at the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:2542% → 42%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
57.6%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for no gain to the Pitt 15Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+20
57.7%
Quadree Henderson run for 20 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
56.1%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
55.8%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-5
57.2%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+7
58.4%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
58.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:5961% → 59%
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.3%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.0%
Rennie Childs run for 10 yds to the OKSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
61.9%
Rudolph, Mason pass incomplete to Seales, Jhajuan, PENALTY PITTSBURGH pass interference (Lewis, Ryan) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OKLAST.Similar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
50
+2
65.6%
Rennie Childs run for 2 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 0:05
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
65.8%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
-13
64.2%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Mike Caprara for a loss of 13 yards to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 21
OWN 39
0
59.4%
Zach Sinor punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:5143% → 43%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
56.9%
Jordan Whitehead run for 16 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
55.9%
Rafael Araujo-Lopes run for 3 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+4
54.8%
Chawntez Moss run for 4 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
54.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 12:55
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
56.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:5061% → 59%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
60.6%
Rennie Childs run for 13 yds to the OKSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
61.7%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to James WashingtonSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-3
60.8%
Justice Hill run for a loss of 3 yards to the OKSt 25Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+3
58.6%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Blake Jarwin for 3 yds to the OKSt 28Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+5
57.8%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, Running Into Kicker (5 Yards) to the OKSt 33Similar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
59.2%
Zach Sinor punt for 46 yds, downed at the Pitt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:2045% → 41%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
55.3%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
55.6%
James Conner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 16Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
57.4%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:30
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
58.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4063% → 58%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
63.0%
Mason Rudolph pass incomplete to Chris LacySimilar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+5
62.5%
Mason Rudolph run for 5 yds to the OKSt 43Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-4
62.7%
Mason Rudolph sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 4 yards to the OKSt 39Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
58.3%
Zach Sinor punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:4445% → 43%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
55.3%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 12
OWN 8
-1
56.9%
George Aston run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 7Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 13
OWN 7
+5
58.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 5 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q4 6:46
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+11
57.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 47 yds , Jalen McCleskey returns for 11 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2465% → 60%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
65.1%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q4 6:20
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+2
65.3%
Justice Hill run for 2 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 6:09
3RD & 6
OPP 44
-1
64.6%
Mason Rudolph run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 45Similar
Q4 5:14
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
60.0%
Zach Sinor punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 33PUNT
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:4847% → 47%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+21
53.0%
James Conner run for 21 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
51.1%
Quadree Henderson run for 10 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
48.2%
Darrin Hall run for 6 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
0
46.9%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 48Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-5
47.4%
James Conner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Pitt 43Similar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 9
OWN 43
+45
53.3%
Ryan Winslow punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jalen McCleskey at the OKLAST 22 OKLAHOMA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dillon Stoner) to the OKSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 34TD
3 plays · 88 yds · 0:2158% → 97%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
58.2%
Justice Hill run for 1 yd to the OKSt 13Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
+86
57.5%
Mason Rudolph pass complete to Jhajuan Seales for 86 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.6%
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 35INT
13 plays · 47 yds · 1:059% → 9%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
91.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 3 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+9
91.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 9 yds to the Pitt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 6 yds to the Pitt 26Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
92.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q4 0:35
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+5
93.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 5 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
92.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Qadree Ollison for 8 yds to the Pitt 39Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+16
91.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Tre Tipton for 16 yds to the OKSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
90.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+3
91.1%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Ramon Richards return for 3 yds to the OKSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OKSTDrive 36END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-2
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the OKSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:28
Rennie Childs run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Grogan KICK)
+39.1
TD · Q3 5:28
Quadree Henderson run for 50 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
-19.3
TD · Q3 10:25
Mason Rudolph sacked for loss of 5 yds, fumble by Mason Rudolph, recovered by Matt Galambos 2 Yd Fumble Return (Chris Blewitt Kick)
-13
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com