Try the model
JMU

James Madison 28 at North Carolina 56

UNC
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Kenan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNC
modelUNC aheadJMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNC scoreJMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:28 · Bryan Schor pass complete to Brandon Ravenel for 14 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 121Pregame prior+22.3Home team on offense+22.6Score differential+15.5Garbage-time factor+4.5Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:03: Bryan Schor pass complete to Cardon Johnson for 68 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK) — JMU win probability +2.4 pts (now 11%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:20: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:15: Elijah Hood run for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:53: Bryan Schor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK) — JMU win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: JMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:01: T.J. Logan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1JMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q2 14:49JMU 4th & 9 at JMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.0%
    average punt
  2. Q2 5:52JMU 4th & 15 at UNC 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−2.1
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:24JMU 4th & 20 at UNC 36, down 14
    Close callPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    7.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.0%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q3 7:28JMU 4th & 11 at UNC 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q3 2:56JMU 4th & 4 at JMU 46, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q4 11:50JMU 4th & 4 at UNC 48, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q4 10:02UNC 4th & 12 at UNC 43, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  8. Q4 7:05JMU 4th & 1 at UNC 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 0:14JMU 4th & 3 at UNC 11, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−0.1
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNC made the numbers' call on 8 of 8JMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:12JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:19UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:44JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:33UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 2:03JMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 14:49UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 10:52UNC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 1:20UNC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 11:15UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:53JMU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 3:01UNC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 11:56UNC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
JMUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:485% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
94.6%
Khalid Abdullah run for 7 yds to the JMads 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+27
94.6%
Khalid Abdullah run for 27 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
94.6%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Khalid Abdullah for 11 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
94.6%
Cardon Johnson run for 14 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
94.6%
Cardon Johnson run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+1
94.6%
Cardon Johnson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 19Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+14
94.6%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Domo Taylor for 14 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
94.6%
Khalid Abdullah run for 4 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.3%
Khalid Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5393% → 93%
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
93.4%
Trubisky, M middle pass incomplete (J. MORELAND), PENALTY JMU offside 5 yards to the NC30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
93.4%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 32Similar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+19
93.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 19 yds to the JMads 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
93.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 4 yds to the JMads 45Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+23
93.5%
Elijah Hood run for 23 yds to the JMads 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
93.6%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the JMads 20Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
93.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:12
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+14
93.5%
Trubisky, M pass incomplete to Howard, B (R. ROBINSON), PENALTY JMU pass interference (R. ROBINSON) 14 yards to the JMU6, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
93.3%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 3TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 4:357% → 10%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
93.0%
Khalid Abdullah run for 7 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
92.9%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the JMads 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
92.8%
Khalid Abdullah run for 5 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+10
92.8%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Domo Taylor for 10 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
92.8%
Khalid Abdullah run for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
92.7%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete, broken up by Andre SmithSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+15
92.8%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Jonathan Kloosterman for 15 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
92.7%
Cardon Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCaro 10Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 2
OPP 10
+7
92.7%
Cardon Johnson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
92.8%
JMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 8Similar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
92.7%
Khalid Abdullah run for 5 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
92.8%
Bryan Schor run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.9%
Khalid Abdullah run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
91.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 75 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:308% → 11%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
91.6%
Cardon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 23Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+9
91.6%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Rashard Davis for 9 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q1 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+68
89.2%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Cardon Johnson for 68 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 2:0889% → 91%
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
89.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Khris Francis for 11 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
89.4%
Elijah Hood run for 6 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+11
89.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 11 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+46
89.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 46 yds to the UNC 8 for a 1ST down JMU Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
90.1%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the JMads 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
89.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack Hollins, broken up by Rashad RobinsonSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
90.2%
Cardon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the JMads 23Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+6
90.2%
Cardon Johnson run for 6 yds to the JMads 29Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-3
90.3%
Bryan Schor sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 3 yards to the JMads 26Similar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
90.5%
Gunnar Kane punt for 57 yds, downed at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:4390% → 92%
Q2 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
89.9%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
89.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Carl Tucker for 9 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q2 12:35
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+2
89.7%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
91.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 71 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 9MISSED FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 5:009% → 9%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.5%
Khalid Abdullah run for 2 yds to the JMads 27Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
91.5%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Domo Taylor for 13 yds to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
91.2%
Khalid Abdullah run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
50
+18
90.8%
Khalid Abdullah run for 18 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
90.5%
Khalid Abdullah run for 6 yds to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+8
90.5%
Cardon Johnson run for 8 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
90.5%
Khalid Abdullah run for 3 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
90.5%
Khalid Abdullah run for 1 yd to the NCaro 14Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 6
OPP 14
-9
90.9%
Bryan Schor sacked by Dominique Ross for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 15
OPP 23
+39
91.1%
Tyler Gray 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10TD
14 plays · 77 yds · 4:3291% → 94%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
91.1%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the NCaro 24Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+12
91.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 12 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
91.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 16 yds to the JMads 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+7
91.5%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the JMads 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
91.7%
T.J. Logan run for 4 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+3
91.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 3 yds to the JMads 41Similar
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
91.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 1 yd to the JMads 33Similar
Q2 5:52
2ND & 9
OPP 33
-5
91.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Lucas Crowley) to the JMads 38Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 14
OPP 38
-5
90.2%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Caleb Peterson) to the JMads 43Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 19
OPP 43
+21
90.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 21 yds to the JMads 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
90.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the JMads 18Similar
Q2 2:18
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+6
90.8%
Hood, E rush right for 5 yards to the JMU13 (D. CARTER), PENALTY JMU offside (A. ANKRAH) 6 yards to the JMU12, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 12 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 32 yds · 0:507% → 7%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
93.2%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Khalid Abdullah for 27 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
92.4%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Rashard Davis for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+11
92.2%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Domo Taylor for 11 yds to the NCaro 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
91.2%
JMU Penalty, false start (Aaron Stinnie) to the NCaro 31Similar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 15
OPP 31
0
92.0%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Domo TaylorSimilar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 15
OPP 31
0
92.2%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Rashard DavisSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 15
OPP 31
-5
92.6%
JMU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 36Similar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 20
OPP 36
0
92.7%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Brandon Ravenel, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q2 0:24
4TH & 20
OPP 36
0
93.2%
Gunnar Kane punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 3:3794% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
93.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+14
93.7%
Mitch Trubisky run for 14 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+12
93.9%
Elijah Hood run for 12 yds to the JMads 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
94.0%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Austin Proehl) to the JMads 48Similar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+23
93.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 23 yds to the JMads 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
94.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 2 yds to the JMads 23Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+8
94.0%
Elijah Hood run for 8 yds to the JMads 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for no gain to the JMads 15Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
98.0%
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 14TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:223% → 8%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
Bryan Schor run for 5 yds to the JMads 30Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
97.3%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Terrence Alls for 4 yds to the JMads 34Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
97.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the JMads 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+19
97.3%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Rashard Davis for 19 yds to the NCaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
97.2%
Cardon Johnson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+7
97.1%
Cardon Johnson run for 7 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
96.9%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete, broken up by Mikey BartSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
97.0%
Bryan Schor sacked by Jason Strowbridge for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 11
OPP 30
0
97.3%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Jonathan Kloosterman, broken up by M.J. Stewart JMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 11
OPP 30
+14
97.7%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Brandon Ravenel for 14 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
97.4%
Cardon Johnson run for 5 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
97.4%
Cardon Johnson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
97.4%
Cardon Johnson run for 2 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.3%
Bryan Schor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4795% → 99%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
94.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 5 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
94.9%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 34Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+6
94.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 6 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
95.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 11 yds to the JMads 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
95.2%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the JMads 46Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+32
95.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 32 yds to the JMads 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
95.3%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds to the JMads 7Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
98.7%
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.3%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Brandon Ravenel, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
98.3%
Khalid Abdullah run for 8 yds to the JMads 26Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 2
OWN 26
-1
98.2%
Bryan Schor pass complete to Mitchell Kirsch for a loss of 1 yard to the JMads 25Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
98.3%
Gunnar Kane punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 9Similar
Q3 2:56
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+15
98.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyler Powell) to the JMads 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.2%
Khalid Abdullah run for 4 yds to the JMads 44Similar
Q3 2:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+2
98.2%
Khalid Abdullah run for 2 yds to the JMads 46Similar
Q3 2:56
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
98.3%
Bryan Schor pass incomplete to Brandon Ravenel, broken up by Des LawrenceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:4699% → 100%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+15
98.9%
Trubisky, M pass incomplete to Drennon, D, PENALTY JMU pass interference (C. TUTT) 15 yards to the NC24, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
99.0%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the NCaro 31Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+9
99.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 9 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
99.1%
Elijah Hood run for 16 yds to the JMads 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.1%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the JMads 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+23
99.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 23 yds to the JMads 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
99.1%
T.J. Logan run for 1 yd to the JMads 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
99.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 10 yds to the JMads 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.1%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the JMads 6Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
99.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 1 yd to the JMads 5Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
99.9%
Cardon Johnson run for 3 yds to the JMads 31 for a 1ST down NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Aaron Crawford) to the JMads 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Taylor Woods run for 3 yds to the JMads 49Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+3
99.9%
Connor Mitch run for 3 yds to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Domo Taylor, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q4 11:50
4TH & 4
OPP 48
+13
99.9%
Gunnar Kane punt for 42 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 13 yds to the NCaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Devin Perry for 6 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+20
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordan Cunningham for 20 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST down JMU Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Elijah Hood run for no gain to the NCaro 45Similar
Q4 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-1
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Elijah Hood for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44Similar
Q4 10:02
3RD & 11
OWN 44
-1
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Elijah Hood for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 43Similar
Q4 10:02
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Rashard Davis at the JMads 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 48 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
99.9%
Trai Sharp run for 2 yds to the JMads 18Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+7
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Terrence Alls for 7 yds to the JMads 25Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+4
99.9%
Trai Sharp run for 4 yds to the JMads 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Brandon Ravenel for 3 yds to the JMads 32Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+9
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Domo Taylor for 9 yds to the JMads 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Taylor Woods for 14 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-3
99.9%
Taylor Woods run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 48Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 13
OPP 48
+12
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Terrence Alls for 12 yds to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 7:05
3RD & 1
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Taylor Woods run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 1
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Trai Sharp run for no gain to the NCaro 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
100.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 6 yds Anthony Ratliff-Williams fumbled, forced by Charles Tutt, recovered by JMads Charles TuttSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JMUDrive 22END OF GAME
13 plays · 38 yds · 2:310% → 0%
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
100.0%
Taylor Woods run for 7 yds to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Taylor Woods run for 2 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+4
99.9%
Taylor Woods run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Domo TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
100.0%
Trai Sharp run for 2 yds to the NCaro 27Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+9
100.0%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Domo Taylor for 9 yds to the NCaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Connor Mitch pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
100.0%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Domo TaylorSimilar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+7
100.0%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Trai Sharp for 7 yds to the NCaro 11Similar
Q4 0:14
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+7
100.0%
Connor Mitch pass complete to Trai Sharp for 7 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Terrence AllsSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Connor Mitch pass incomplete to Brandon RavenelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:53
Bryan Schor run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Gray KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q3 11:15
Elijah Hood run for 15 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q3 3:01
T.J. Logan run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
+3.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com