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FSU

Florida State 20 at Louisville 63

LOU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
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Win probability · LOU
modelLOU aheadFSU aheadconfidence bandkey playLOU scoreFSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:46 · Mason King punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Home team on offense+31.2Score differential+21.9Blowout margin+9.1Pregame prior−4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.0Garbage-time factor+9.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:50: Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +5.2 pts (now 52%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:56: Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK) — FSU win probability +5.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 7:40: Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +7.8 pts (now 60%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 5:03: Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +8.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:12: Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +14.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5FSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 10:11FSU 4th & 19 at FSU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:22LOU 4th & 6 at LOU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:30FSU 4th & 4 at LOU 32, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%−0.2
    51% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:41FSU 4th & 5 at LOU 29, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.2%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    42.7%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:20LOU 4th & 24 at FSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%−2.2
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.9%
    54% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:17FSU 4th & 24 at FSU 29, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−3.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:49FSU 4th & 5 at FSU 22, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:18FSU 4th & 4 at FSU 34, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:46LOU 4th & 7 at midfield, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:45FSU 4th & 7 at FSU 14, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:08FSU 4th & 23 at FSU 27, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:00FSU 4th & 21 at FSU 24, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:26FSU 4th & 11 at FSU 24, down 53
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:25LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 43, up 53
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:35LOU 4th & 1 at LOU 26, up 46
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:51FSU 4th & 15 at LOU 15, down 46
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LOU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8FSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:54LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:50LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:56FSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:40LOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:03LOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:12LOU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:02LOU Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:27LOU Touchdown, up 45 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:30LOU Touchdown, up 52 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 5:19FSU Touchdown, down 47 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5639% → 41%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
38.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 30 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
39.0%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 4 yds to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+8
39.2%
Traveon Samuel run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
39.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+31
39.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 31 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
40.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 2:2960% → 58%
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
40.4%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 33Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+14
40.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Ryan Izzo for 14 yds to the FlaSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
40.8%
Deondre Francois sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 19
OWN 38
0
41.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q1 10:20
3RD & 19
OWN 38
0
42.0%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Dalvin CookSimilar
Q1 10:11
4TH & 19
OWN 38
+49
42.4%
Logan Tyler punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LOUISVILLE 23 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Lamar Atkins) to the Lvile 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4342% → 43%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
42.4%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 6
OWN 17
0
42.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 6
OWN 17
0
42.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q1 9:22
4TH & 6
OWN 17
0
42.5%
Mason King punt for 35 yds , Jesus Wilson returns for no gain to the FlaSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 4MISSED FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4458% → 56%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+14
42.4%
Dalvin Cook run for 14 yds to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
42.5%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q1 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
42.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
43.3%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:30
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+49
43.8%
Ricky Aguayo 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 2:3044% → 52%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
44.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 5
OWN 37
0
45.2%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 37Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+24
45.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 24 yds to the FlaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
46.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+20
46.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 20 yds to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
52.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 14 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 6FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:5450% → 51%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
49.9%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 17 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
49.9%
Dalvin Cook run for 7 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
Q1 3:30
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+4
50.6%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
50.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+1
51.0%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the Lvile 33Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+4
51.5%
Deondre Francois run for 4 yds to the Lvile 29Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
49.4%
Ricky Aguayo 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:0550% → 53%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
50.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (DeMarcus Walker) to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 40Similar
Q1 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+33
51.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 33 yds to the FlaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
52.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 9 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+1
52.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-9
53.2%
Lamar Jackson sacked by Jacob Pugh for a loss of 9 yards to the FlaSt 26Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 19
OPP 26
-15
53.2%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Use of Hands (Lukayus McNeil) to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 34
OPP 41
0
53.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 34
OPP 41
+10
53.9%
Jeremy Smith run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 31Similar
Q2 13:20
4TH & 24
OPP 31
+48
53.1%
Evan O'Hara 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 69 yds · 2:1647% → 54%
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
52.8%
Deondre Francois run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+41
52.3%
Jacques Patrick run for 41 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-15
51.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Mavin Saunders) to the Lvile 30Similar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 25
OPP 30
+8
52.0%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Jesus Wilson for 8 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 17
OPP 22
+2
52.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the Lvile 20Similar
Q2 10:56
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+20
46.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Auden Tate for 20 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 3:0548% → 60%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
47.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
48.5%
Reggie Bonnafon run for 5 yds to the Lvile 42Similar
Q2 9:52
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
49.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+30
48.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 30 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
51.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+10
51.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
51.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 1
OPP 2
0
52.5%
Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the FlaSt 2Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
60.3%
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 10FUMBLE
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-12
58.3%
Deondre Francois run for a loss of 12 yards to the FlaSt 23 Deondre Francois fumbled, recovered by Lvile Jaire AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:1762% → 71%
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
61.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 5 yds to the FlaSt 18Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-6
61.9%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (James Quick) to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+13
62.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
62.6%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 7Similar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+3
63.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 4Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 3
OPP 4
+4
70.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 3:3329% → 24%
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
70.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+11
71.7%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Nyqwan Murray for 11 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
70.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 8 yds to the FlaSt 39Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
70.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 40Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+3
71.8%
Deondre Francois run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.8%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
73.4%
Deondre Francois sacked by DeAngelo Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 41Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 12
OWN 41
-12
76.0%
Deondre Francois sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 12 yards to the FlaSt 29Similar
Q2 1:17
4TH & 24
OWN 29
0
76.3%
Logan Tyler punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 0:5878% → 88%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
78.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 16 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
79.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 9 yds to the FlaSt 46Similar
Q2 0:51
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+44
78.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 44 yds to the FlaSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
77.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 5Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
75.7%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 4 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
78.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlaSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5610% → 4%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
89.8%
Dalvin Cook run for 5 yds to the FlaSt 22Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 5
OWN 22
0
90.3%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
90.8%
Deondre Francois pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:49
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+69
96.5%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 69 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:224% → 3%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
96.3%
Dalvin Cook run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 6
OWN 32
0
96.7%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Nyqwan MurraySimilar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+2
96.8%
Deondre Francois run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q3 12:18
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
96.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 2:2498% → 98%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Jeremy Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+19
97.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 19 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
97.9%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 47Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
98.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 7
50
0
98.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q3 9:46
4TH & 7
50
0
98.4%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jesus Wilson at the FlaSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:552% → 2%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
97.9%
Deondre Francois run for no gain to the FlaSt 11Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-5
98.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Roderick Johnson) to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 15
OWN 6
0
98.2%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 15
OWN 6
+8
98.3%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Dalvin Cook for 8 yds to the FlaSt 14Similar
Q3 7:45
4TH & 7
OWN 14
0
97.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 51 yds, downed at the Lvile 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:3599% → 99%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
98.9%
Traveon Samuel run for 8 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+12
99.0%
Brandon Radcliff run for 12 yds to the FlaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
99.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 17 yds to the FlaSt 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (14 Yards) to the FlaSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
99.1%
Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the FlaSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 1Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:421% → 0%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
99.4%
Deondre Francois pass complete to Travis Rudolph for 23 yds to the FlaSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Jesus WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
99.4%
Deondre Francois pass incomplete to Travis RudolphSimilar
Q3 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-13
99.5%
Deondre Francois sacked by Josh Harvey-Clemons for a loss of 13 yards to the FlaSt 27Similar
Q3 3:08
4TH & 23
OWN 27
+61
99.6%
Logan Tyler punt for 51 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 61 yds to the FlaSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.5%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Tarvarus McFadden return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:551% → 0%
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Dalvin Cook run for no gain to the FlaSt 20Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
99.6%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Ronald Walker) to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
99.6%
Deondre Francois sacked by Jonathan Greenard for a loss of 11 yards to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 21
OWN 24
-3
99.7%
Dalvin Cook run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaSt 21Similar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 24
OWN 21
+3
99.7%
Dalvin Cook run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 21
OWN 24
0
99.7%
Logan Tyler punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Reggie Bonnafon at the Lvile 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 23TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
99.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 47 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 24INT
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:000% → 0%
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 10 yds to the FlaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
99.8%
Jacques Patrick run for 3 yds to the FlaSt 38Similar
Q4 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+36
99.9%
Deondre Francois pass intercepted Chucky Williams return for 36 yds to the FlaSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 25TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:40100% → 100%
Q4 13:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
99.8%
Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the FlaSt 6Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:540% → 0%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaSt 24Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
99.9%
J.J. Cosentino pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
99.9%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Auden TateSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Logan Tyler punt for 40 yds, downed at the Lvile 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:55100% → 100%
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.9%
Malin Jones run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Malin Jones run for 2 yds to the Lvile 41Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+2
99.9%
Malin Jones run for 2 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
99.9%
Mason King punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Nyqwan Murray at the FlaSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 28TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 13 yds to the FlaSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.9%
Jacques Patrick run for 1 yd to the FlaSt 32Similar
Q4 8:15
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+2
100.0%
J.J. Cosentino run for 2 yds to the FlaSt 34Similar
Q4 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+10
100.0%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FlaSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
100.0%
Jacques Patrick run for 12 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
100.0%
Ryan Green run for 16 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+17
100.0%
Ryan Green run for 17 yds to the Lvile 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
100.0%
Ryan Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 12Similar
Q4 5:19
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+12
100.0%
J.J. Cosentino pass complete to Auden Tate for 12 yds for a TD, (Ricky Aguayo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:35100% → 100%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
99.9%
Malik Williams run for 5 yds to the Lvile 22Similar
Q4 4:40
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+3
99.9%
Trey Smith run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Trey Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 26Similar
Q4 2:35
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
100.0%
Mason King punt for 19 yds, downed at the Lvile 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FSUDrive 30FG
9 plays · 30 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
100.0%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
100.0%
Johnathan Vickers run for 13 yds to the Lvile 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+30
100.0%
Johnathan Vickers run for 30 yds to the Lvile 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
100.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 7Similar
Q4 1:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-3
100.0%
Johnathan Vickers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 10Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
100.0%
FLORIDA ST Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
100.0%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q4 0:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
100.0%
J.J. Cosentino pass incomplete to Keith GavinSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
100.0%
Ricky Aguayo 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:27100% → 100%
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 23Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:12
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q2 5:03
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 4 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
+8.3
TD · Q2 7:40
Jeremy Smith run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
+7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com