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DUKE

Duke 13 at Northwestern 24

NU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadDUKE aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreDUKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:30 · Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense+0.6Pregame prior+6.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:03: Jela Duncan run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +12.5 pts (now 49%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 10:46: Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 32 — NU win probability +8.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:55: Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49 — DUKE win probability +5.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:44: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 44 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +25.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:56: Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 58 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK) — NU win probability +7.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9DUKE made the numbers' call on 12 of 12
  1. Q1 11:30DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:18NU 4th & 21 at DUKE 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.4
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    63.4%−0.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:47DUKE 4th & 10 at NU 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:28NU 4th & 9 at DUKE 45, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    65.0%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NU 4th & 14 at DUKE 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:41DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00DUKE 4th & 3 at NU 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−0.7
    72% to make
    Punt
    36.5%−7.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:46NU 4th & 19 at NU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.7%−4.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:43DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:55DUKE 4th & 6 at NU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:44DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:54NU 4th & 12 at NU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:59DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:12NU 4th & 10 at DUKE 23, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−1.7
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−8.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 40, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:09NU 4th & 9 at NU 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:24DUKE 4th & 8 at NU 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.1%
    81% to make
    Punt
    7.1%−6.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 10:24NU 4th & 8 at NU 49, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.3%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:14DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:56DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:40NU 4th & 3 at NU 35, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:30NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:03DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:44NU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:56NU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:51DUKE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    4.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NUDrive 1TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:3057% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
57.3%
Justin Jackson run for 6 yds to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
57.3%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
57.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+21
57.3%
Justin Jackson run for 21 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
57.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+9
57.3%
Auston Anderson run for 9 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
57.3%
Justin Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
57.3%
Solomon Vault run for 5 yds to the Duke 27 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 37
+11
57.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 11 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+26
59.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 26 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
58.7%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
58.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
58.8%
Daniel Jones run for 3 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q1 11:30
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
58.9%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
59.4%
Solomon Vault run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+17
59.5%
Justin Jackson run for 17 yds to the Duke 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
59.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
59.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
59.9%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Dominic McDonald for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 39Similar
Q1 10:18
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+2
59.6%
Solomon Vault run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 10:18
3RD & 12
OPP 37
-9
59.4%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Corbin McCarthy for a loss of 9 yards to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 10:18
4TH & 21
OPP 46
0
59.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4DOWNS
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+28
60.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 28 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
60.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 12 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
59.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 13 yds to the Nwest 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
59.8%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
Q1 6:47
2ND & 4
OPP 32
-6
59.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 38Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
60.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
60.7%
Austin Parker pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
62.2%
Jackson, Justin rush for 1 yard to the NU39 (Price, M), PENALTY DU offside defense (McDuffie, J) 5 yards to the NU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 5
OWN 43
0
62.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+11
62.6%
Justin Jackson run for 11 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
62.7%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 46Similar
Q1 4:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+3
62.6%
John Moten IV run for 3 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 7
OPP 43
-2
62.3%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Danny Doyle for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 45 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
61.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6INT
6 plays · 46 yds · 0:0038% → 40%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
61.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 5 yds to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
61.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 7 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
61.5%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q1 2:29
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+9
61.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 9 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+20
60.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 20 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
60.0%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Godwin Igwebuike return for 3 yds to the Nwest 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:1263% → 62%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
63.2%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
63.2%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 26Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+29
62.6%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 29 yds to the Duke 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
64.5%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
64.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 49
0
63.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Justin Jackson, broken up by A.J. WolfSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 49
0
62.3%
Hunter Niswander punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0037% → 35%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
63.5%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the Duke 21Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+2
63.6%
Parker Boehme run for 2 yds to the Duke 23Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-6
64.1%
Parker Boehme sacked by Anthony Walker Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 17Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+13
64.8%
Austin Parker punt for 53 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 13 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 9INT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
66.1%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Vault, Solomon (McCarthy, C), PENALTY DU pass interference (McCarthy, C) 7 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
50
+1
66.3%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 49Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
66.3%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Andrew Scanlan for 8 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+1
65.9%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Duke 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
66.4%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Wilson, Macan (Fields, B), PENALTY DU offside defense (Cerenord, E) 5 yards to the DU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 5
OPP 35
0
66.6%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 5
OPP 35
0
66.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn Nagel, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+10
66.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 10 yds to the Duke 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
66.6%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Bryon Fields return for no gain to the Duke 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:4734% → 49%
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
66.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+3
66.5%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 10Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 10
+5
66.9%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
66.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+8
65.9%
Jela Duncan run for 8 yds to the Duke 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
65.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 16 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
64.5%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 44Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+39
65.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 39 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
62.4%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 14
0
62.4%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+10
63.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the Nwest 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
51.0%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 11MISSED FG
17 plays · 66 yds · 2:5758% → 64%
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
58.3%
Jelani Roberts run for no gain to the Nwest 17Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-3
58.0%
Jelani Roberts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 14Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+20
56.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 20 yds to the Nwest 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
58.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
58.6%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+10
57.3%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Vault, Solomon, PENALTY DU holding (Fields, B) 10 yards to the NU44, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
60.6%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
60.8%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+33
59.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Flynn Nagel for 33 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
61.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-15
61.9%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Nagel, Flynn (Edwards, D), PENALTY NU personal foul (Olson, Eric) 15 yards to the DU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 25
OPP 35
+3
60.4%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 22
OPP 32
0
60.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 22
OPP 32
+15
58.2%
Mitchell, Jack field goal attempt from 49 MISSED - short,, clock 00:00, PENALTY DU roughing the kicker (Borders, B) 15 yards to the DU17, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+34
63.8%
Jack Mitchell 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12FUMBLE
13 plays · 54 yds · 0:0046% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.4%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+12
52.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 12 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
52.0%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
51.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
51.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 5 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
51.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+9
51.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 9 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
50.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-7
50.2%
Daniel Jones sacked by Xavier Washington for a loss of 7 yards to the Nwest 34 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+12
53.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 12 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+5
53.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 5 yds to the Nwest 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
50.2%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 32 Daniel Jones fumbled, forced by Anthony Walker Jr., recovered by Nwest Anthony Walker Jr. , return for 11 yds to the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0058% → 55%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
58.2%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 32Similar
Q3 10:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
57.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Flynn NagelSimilar
Q3 10:46
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-9
56.2%
Clayton Thorson sacked by DeVon Edwards for a loss of 9 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 19
OWN 23
0
55.2%
Hunter Niswander punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
53.8%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 9:43
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+2
51.9%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
52.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+1
54.9%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 1 yd to the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 15INT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
57.8%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 4 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
58.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon Vault, broken up by A.J. WolfSimilar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+11
56.1%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 11 yds to the Nwest 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
58.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
58.1%
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 33Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 10
OWN 33
0
56.3%
Clayton Thorson pass intercepted Breon Borders return for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 16DOWNS
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0049% → 46%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
50.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
50.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 2 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
51.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Trae WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:55
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+3
53.6%
Austin Parker run for a loss of 12 yards to the Duke 44 Austin Parker fumbled, recovered by Duke Austin Parker , return for 3 yds to the Duke 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 17TD
1 play · 44 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
78.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 44 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.8%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
71.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
73.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:44
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
73.9%
Austin Parker punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0077% → 74%
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
76.5%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 6
OWN 36
-2
77.4%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 4:54
3RD & 8
OWN 34
-4
75.5%
Clayton Thorson sacked by Joe Giles-Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 30Similar
Q3 4:54
4TH & 12
OWN 30
+10
73.7%
Hunter Niswander punt for 50 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 10 yds to the Duke 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 25%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
73.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
73.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q3 2:59
4TH & 7
OWN 33
+10
74.9%
Austin Parker punt for 47 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 10 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 21FG
7 plays · 47 yds · 1:5079% → 83%
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+35
78.7%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Macan Wilson for 35 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
81.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 9 yds to the Duke 26Similar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
81.5%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
81.5%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin Carr, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q3 2:02
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
81.4%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
80.1%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Andrew Scanlan, broken up by Breon BordersSimilar
Q3 0:12
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
83.2%
Jack Mitchell 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0717% → 15%
Q3 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
82.8%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Duke 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
82.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 39
-5
83.4%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Casey Blaser) to the Duke 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 34
+6
84.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 6 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
84.7%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Flynn Nagel at the Nwest 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
83.4%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 3 yds to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-2
83.3%
Justin Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 21Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
82.3%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Solomon VaultSimilar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+10
81.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 43 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 10 yds to the Duke 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 24MISSED FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:1718% → 14%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
81.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Nwest 47Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+4
80.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 4 yds to the Nwest 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
80.9%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Nwest 41Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+23
80.9%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 23 yds to the Nwest 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
79.3%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 8
OPP 16
0
79.3%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Jared McGeeSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 8
OPP 16
0
81.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony Nash, broken up by Montre HartageSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 8
OPP 16
+34
85.9%
AJ Reed 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
85.8%
Justin Jackson run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
85.9%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 8 yds to the Nwest 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
86.1%
Justin Jackson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 35
-3
86.0%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Justin Jackson for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 32Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+15
85.0%
Thorson, C. pass incomplete to Carr, Austin (Singleton, D), QB hurry by Humphreys, B, PENALTY DU personal foul (Singleton, D) 15 yards to the NU47, 1ST DOWN NU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
87.0%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Tommy Doles) to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+7
86.6%
Justin Jackson run for 7 yds to the Nwest 49Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
86.9%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Garrett DickersonSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
86.0%
Clayton Thorson pass incomplete to Austin CarrSimilar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
85.1%
Hunter Niswander punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan Lloyd, broken up by Jaylen PraterSimilar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
90.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
90.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Trae WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 10
OWN 20
+12
91.3%
Austin Parker punt for 53 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 12 yds to the Nwest 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 61 yds · 1:5291% → 98%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
91.0%
Clayton Thorson run for 3 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 7
OWN 42
-5
91.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, false start (Eric Olson) to the Nwest 37Similar
Q4 6:48
2ND & 12
OWN 37
+5
90.2%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Garrett Dickerson for 5 yds to the Nwest 42Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+58
97.5%
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Austin Carr for 58 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich SchneiderSimilar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
97.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Godwin IgwebuikeSimilar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+8
97.7%
Austin Parker punt for 52 yds , Flynn Nagel returns for 8 yds to the Nwest 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3598% → 98%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
97.7%
Justin Jackson run for 5 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
97.7%
Justin Jackson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 34Similar
Q4 4:15
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+1
97.7%
Clayton Thorson run for 1 yd to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 3
OWN 35
0
98.4%
Hunter Niswander punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 30TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 1:422% → 6%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+11
98.1%
Daniel Jones run for 11 yds to the Duke 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
98.1%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q4 2:33
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+19
98.0%
Jela Duncan run for 19 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
97.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jela Duncan for 6 yds to the Nwest 36Similar
Q4 2:33
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+16
97.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 16 yds to the Nwest 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
97.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 8 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 2
OPP 12
0
97.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+11
97.6%
Daniel Jones run for 9 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Godwin Igwebuike) to the Nwest 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
93.6%
Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd for a TD, (AJ Reed PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 31END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 45Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:44
Clayton Thorson pass complete to Solomon Vault for 44 yds for a TD, (Jack Mitchell KICK)
+25.1
TD · Q2 3:03
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
-12.5
KEY PLAY · Q3 10:46
Justin Jackson run for no gain to the Nwest 32
+8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com