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PSU

Penn State 39 at Pittsburgh 42

PITT
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:24 · Blake Gillikin punt for 69 yds, downed at the Pitt 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+21.0+10.50−10.5−21.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense+17.7Pregame prior+2.0Score differential+6.2Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.6Time remaining+1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:54: Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 40 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:24: James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +12.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:42: Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK) — PSU win probability +13.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:24: Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +14.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:00: Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trace McSorley pass to DaeSean Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion) — PSU win probability +30.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00PSU 4th & 4 at PITT 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    36.7%−0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16PSU 4th & 6 at midfield, down 14
    Close callPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:51PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:54PSU 4th & 4 at PSU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:20PSU 4th & 6 at PSU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:45PITT 4th & 6 at PITT 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00PITT 4th & 14 at PITT 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 0:46PITT 4th & 8 at PSU 32, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:04PSU 4th & 19 at PITT 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.1%−5.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−10.7
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:24PSU 4th & 15 at PSU 24, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−1.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:42PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 12, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:49PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:15PSU 4th & 16 at PSU 34, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 6PSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 8:03PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:16PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:42PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:38PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:54PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:42PSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:54PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 7:24PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:42PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 10:24PITT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 5:00PSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    16.8%−2.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    18.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.7%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
61.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 10 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
61.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 24 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
61.7%
PENN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+5
61.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 5 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+1
61.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 1 yd to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+5
61.7%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Pitt 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
61.7%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
61.7%
Blake Gillikin punt for 34 yds, downed at the Pitt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 4:4362% → 65%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
61.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 3Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+24
61.6%
James Conner run for 24 yds to the Pitt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
61.7%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 10
OWN 27
-9
61.6%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28 PITTSBURGH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 19
OWN 18
+38
61.6%
Quadree Henderson run for 38 yds to the PnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
61.9%
Quadree Henderson run for 9 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+23
62.0%
James Conner run for 23 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
62.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 10 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
62.0%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
64.8%
George Aston run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3FUMBLE
2 plays · -6 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-7
63.9%
Trace McSorley sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 12 Trace McSorley fumbled, recovered by Pitt Mike Caprara , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3865% → 68%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
64.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+7
68.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 7 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
67.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 8 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+3
66.8%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
66.9%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 28Similar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+18
67.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 18 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
66.6%
Trace McSorley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:16
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
66.7%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Brandon Polk for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:16
3RD & 6
50
0
66.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to John Reid, broken up by Matt GalambosSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 6
50
0
66.9%
Blake Gillikin punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q1 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
69.5%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 17Similar
Q1 4:51
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+8
69.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 8 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 4:51
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+1
69.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 4
OWN 26
+59
68.9%
Ryan Winslow punt for 48 yds , John Reid returns for 59 yds to the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:0932% → 37%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
68.4%
McSorley, Trace pass incomplete to Gesicki, Mike (Avonte Maddox), PENALTY UP pass interference (Avonte Maddox) 12 yards to the UP3, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
63.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 4:0466% → 74%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+24
65.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 0
0
65.7%
PENN ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
50
+13
66.7%
George Aston run for 13 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
66.8%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+16
66.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 16 yds to the PnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
66.9%
Dontez Ford run for 6 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
66.9%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
67.6%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
67.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 3 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q2 13:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 2 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0028% → 29%
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
71.8%
Trace McSorley run for 17 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
71.4%
Trace McSorley run for a loss of 6 yards to the PnSt 30 Trace McSorley fumbled, forced by Ejuan Price, recovered by Pitt Jordan Whitehead , return for 9 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 1:0775% → 83%
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+28
74.6%
Jordan Whitehead run for 28 yds to the PnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
74.6%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 3Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
83.7%
George Aston run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
83.2%
PENN ST Penalty, roughing the kicker (Christian Campbell) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 24Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
82.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q2 11:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
82.4%
Trace McSorley run for no gain to the PnSt 31 Trace McSorley fumbled, forced by Oluwaseun Idowu,Similar
Q2 11:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
82.8%
Blake Gillikin punt for 37 yds , Avonte Maddox returns for no gain to the Pitt 33 Avonte Maddox fumbled, recovered by Pitt Avonte MaddoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12INT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
84.5%
Quadree Henderson run for 13 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
85.0%
Darrin Hall run for 11 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
85.0%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 11
OPP 44
0
84.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+8
84.4%
Nathan Peterman pass intercepted Malik Golden return for 8 yds to the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
85.0%
PENN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+10
85.5%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 10 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
84.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 3 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-4
84.7%
Saquon Barkley run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 39Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
85.3%
Blake Gillikin punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Avonte Maddox at the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
88.1%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+20
88.2%
James Conner run for 20 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
88.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 2 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-2
88.5%
Quadree Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 42Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+4
88.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 4 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q2 6:45
4TH & 6
OWN 46
0
87.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 37 yds, downed at the PnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 83 yds · 2:3511% → 24%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
88.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 3 yds to the PnSt 20Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+6
88.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 6 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+5
88.5%
McSorley, Trace rush for 1 yard to the PSU27 (Rori Blair), PENALTY UP offside defense (Shakir Soto) 5 yards to the PSU31, 1ST DOWN PSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
88.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 15 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+29
88.3%
Saquon Barkley run for 29 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
87.1%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+24
88.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 24 yds to the Pitt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
88.0%
Saquon Barkley run for no gain to the Pitt 1Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
81.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 7 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
81.7%
James Conner run for 7 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+2
81.8%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 22
-5
81.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Ejuan Price for 5 yards to the UP27 (Wartman-White, Nyeem;Bowen, Manny), PENALTY UP ineligible downfield on pass (Adam Bisnowaty) 5 yards to the UP17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 17
-5
81.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, delay of game (Nathan Peterman) to the Pitt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 12
-3
81.0%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 9Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 9
+1
80.0%
Ryan Winslow punt for 38 yds , John Reid returns for 1 yd to the Pitt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 18TD
2 plays · 46 yds · 0:3920% → 32%
Q3 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
80.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 6 yds to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+40
68.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 40 yds for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:3073% → 87%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to George Aston, broken up by Christian CampbellSimilar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 12 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
73.4%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+6
74.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 6 yds to the Pitt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+18
74.8%
Qadree Ollison run for 18 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
75.4%
Qadree Ollison run for 8 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
75.4%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+2
74.3%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
75.4%
Darrin Hall run for 20 yds to the PnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
75.4%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.1%
James Conner run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
88.6%
PENN ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
87.1%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Alex Bookser) to the Pitt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20FUMBLE
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
83.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mark Allen for 4 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+2
82.7%
Mark Allen run for 2 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+5
83.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Chris Godwin for 5 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
82.7%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Saquon BarkleySimilar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+7
82.9%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 7 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 3
OPP 35
-5
82.4%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Saquon Barkley for 5 yds to the Pitt 30 PENN ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Pitt 40Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+4
83.0%
Saquon Barkley run for 4 yds to the Pitt 35 Saquon Barkley fumbled, forced by Dennis Briggs, recovered by Pitt Mike CapraraSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:3289% → 92%
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
89.1%
Qadree Ollison rush for 1 yard to the UP36, out-of-bounds (Reid, John), PENALTY UP illegal shift (Qadree Ollison) 5 yards to the UP30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+6
89.0%
James Conner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
89.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+30
88.8%
Nathan Peterman run for 30 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
89.8%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 4:18
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
89.8%
Nathan Peterman run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 31Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 7
OPP 31
-1
89.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 32Similar
Q3 0:46
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
91.9%
Chris Blewitt 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:0412% → 27%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
88.2%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to Chris GodwinSimilar
Q3 0:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+2
88.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Mike Gesicki for 2 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q3 0:46
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+14
88.6%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 14 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
88.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+39
88.8%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 39 yds to the Pitt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Pitt 1Similar
Q4 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23FUMBLE
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
83.6%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, false start (Alex Bookser) to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+4
83.3%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 11 James Conner fumbled, forced by Torrence Brown, recovered by PnSt John Reid , return for 4 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 24FG
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:3126% → 31%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
73.6%
Trace McSorley run for 1 yd to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 9
OPP 10
0
73.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 10
-10
75.2%
Trace McSorley sacked by Quintin Wirginis for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 12:04
4TH & 19
OPP 20
+38
68.7%
Tyler Davis 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25TD
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:4076% → 90%
Q4 12:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
75.6%
George Aston run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 12:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
75.3%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the PnSt 12Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
90.0%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
87.9%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds to the PnSt 31Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
87.6%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DeAndre ThompkinsSimilar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-7
89.2%
Trace McSorley sacked by Shakir Soto for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 24Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 15
OWN 24
0
90.1%
Blake Gillikin punt for 69 yds, downed at the Pitt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q4 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
90.4%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 7Similar
Q4 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+1
90.3%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 8Similar
Q4 8:42
3RD & 9
OWN 8
+4
90.0%
Nathan Peterman run for 4 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q4 8:42
4TH & 5
OWN 12
-4
89.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds , John Reid returns for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 28TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 1:3010% → 44%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
89.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the Pitt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+27
89.1%
Trace McSorley pass complete to Juwan Johnson for 27 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
87.4%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+19
88.0%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DaeSean Hamilton for 19 yds to the Pitt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
87.4%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Pitt 2Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
56.5%
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trace McSorley pass to DaeSean Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 29PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:1173% → 75%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.6%
Nathan Peterman run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
74.8%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-1
76.6%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 30Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
74.7%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 29 , John Reid returns for 5 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 30INT
8 plays · 40 yds · 1:4127% → 32%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
73.1%
Saquon Barkley run for 11 yds to the PnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
70.8%
Andre Robinson run for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
68.9%
Trace McSorley pass incomplete to DaeSean HamiltonSimilar
Q4 3:56
3RD & 6
OWN 44
-9
71.5%
Trace McSorley sacked by Rori Blair for a loss of 9 yards to the PnSt 34 Trace McSorley fumbled, recovered by PnSt Ryan Bates , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+34
80.2%
Trace McSorley pass complete to DeAndre Thompkins for 34 yds to the Pitt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
67.7%
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
68.0%
Trace McSorley pass intercepted, touchback. Ryan Lewis return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0290% → 90%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
90.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 19Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 11
OWN 19
-1
90.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 18Similar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-1
90.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:00
Saquon Barkley run for 2 yds for a TD, (Trace McSorley pass to DaeSean Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)
-30.9
TD · Q4 10:24
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q4 13:42
Saquon Barkley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Davis KICK)
-13.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com