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UNC

North Carolina 48 at Illinois 23

ILL
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:22 · TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Illin ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 162Home team on offense−22.1Pregame prior−2.9Score differential−12.1Garbage-time factor−7.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:55: Wes Lunt pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 15 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +5.7 pts (now 46%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:10: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 24 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +5.2 pts (now 67%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:25: Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +11.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.9 pts (now 27%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:22: Elijah Hood run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK) — UNC win probability +12.4 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UNC made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 13:35UNC 4th & 11 at UNC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:22ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:52ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:30UNC 4th & 14 at ILL 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.7%
    51% to make
    Punt
    55.2%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:10ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 45, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%−1.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:23ILL 4th & 4 at ILL 36, down 8
    Close callPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:37UNC 4th & 1 at UNC 47, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.5%−1.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:07ILL 4th & 9 at ILL 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:30UNC 4th & 4 at ILL 25, up 8
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%−0.5
    66% to make
    Punt
    68.1%−5.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:30ILL 4th & 22 at ILL 13, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−3.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:25ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 41, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:58UNC 4th & 6 at UNC 12, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−1.3
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:22ILL 4th & 1 at ILL 34, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    11.7%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:22ILL 4th & 3 at UNC 20, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    13.4%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    6.7%−7.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:49ILL 4th & 11 at ILL 36, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:35ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:52UNC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:55ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:30UNC Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:10UNC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:25UNC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55ILL Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:22UNC Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:49UNC Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ILLDrive 1TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2536% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
35.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 12 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
35.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 3 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+65
36.9%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 65 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
36.8%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Carroll Phillips for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 21Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+3
36.9%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the NCaro 24Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
36.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:35
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+3
36.9%
Tom Sheldon punt for 44 yds , Darius Mosely returns for 3 yds to the Illin 35 Darius Mosely fumbled,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
37.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q1 12:22
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
37.8%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:22
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
37.7%
David Reisner punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:3262% → 63%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
38.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 5 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+1
38.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd to the NCaro 38Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 4
OWN 38
-5
38.3%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 33Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+21
38.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 21 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+39
38.1%
Mitch Trubisky run for 39 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
37.9%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense (Chris James) to the Illin 1Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
37.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for 1 yd for a TD ILLINOIS Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
38.1%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Reggie Corbin for 14 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
38.4%
Kendrick Foster run for 2 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 8:52
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+6
38.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Illin 47Similar
Q1 8:52
3RD & 2
OWN 47
-2
38.6%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 45Similar
Q1 8:52
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
38.2%
David Reisner punt for 27 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for no gain to the NCaro 30 Ryan Switzer fumbled, recovered by Illin Caleb DaySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6TD
6 plays · 30 yds · 3:1740% → 46%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
40.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Andrew Davis for 5 yds to the NCaro 25Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+6
40.3%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the NCaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
40.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Justin Hardee for 4 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-5
40.3%
Foster,K. rush for 8 yards to the NC7, out-of-bounds (Lawrence, D), PENALTY ILL illegal shift (Johnson,Ainslie) 5 yards to the NC20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+5
40.2%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Sam Mays for 5 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+15
45.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Kendrick Foster for 15 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7FG
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:2557% → 57%
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
42.7%
Elijah Hood run for 3 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 25
-7
42.7%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 7 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q1 2:55
3RD & 14
OPP 32
0
44.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Ryan SwitzerSimilar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 14
OPP 32
+49
43.1%
Nick Weiler 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
42.6%
ILLINOIS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+3
42.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-5
42.5%
Wes Lunt run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 19 Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by NCaro Mikey BartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 9TD
2 plays · 19 yds · 0:2259% → 63%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+13
40.7%
T.J. Logan run for 6 yds to the Illin 13 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (James Crawford) to the Illin 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
37.5%
Mitch Trubisky run for 6 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:3039% → 39%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.2%
Wes Lunt sacked by Jeremiah Clarke for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 20
-5
39.2%
ILLINOIS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+5
39.2%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 5 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
38.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 11 yds to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
38.7%
David Reisner punt for 41 yds, downed at the NCaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 11TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:2361% → 67%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
39.0%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+28
39.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 28 yds to the Illin 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
37.8%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+10
37.6%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 10 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
37.4%
T.J. Logan run for 5 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+4
37.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 4 yds to the Illin 22Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
37.8%
T.J. Logan run for 3 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
37.2%
Elijah Hood run for 2 yds to the Illin 17Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-2
37.2%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 19Similar
Q2 13:33
3RD & 10
OPP 19
-5
38.1%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 24Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 15
OPP 24
+24
32.8%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to T.J. Logan for 24 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 3 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
32.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
31.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 6 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
32.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 8 yds to the Illin 44Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+1
33.1%
Kendrick Foster run for 1 yd to the Illin 45Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
32.7%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q2 9:10
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
32.0%
David Reisner punt for 53 yds, downed at the NCaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 13SF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0569% → 69%
Q2 5:28
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
31.4%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-1 Yards) to the NCaro 1Similar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 11
OWN 1
-1
31.5%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
31.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Reggie CorbinSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
31.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 6 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
31.7%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
30.7%
David Reisner punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5071% → 70%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
29.4%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+1
29.2%
Elijah Hood run for 1 yd to the NCaro 43Similar
Q2 4:27
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+4
29.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 4 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
30.5%
Tom Sheldon punt for 39 yds, downed at the Illin 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:1931% → 28%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-7
31.1%
Lunt,Wes pass complete to Vaughn,Ke'Shawn for 4 yards to the ILL18 (Holcomb, C;Fox, T), PENALTY ILL illegal block (Allegretti,N.) 7 yards to the ILL7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 17
OWN 7
+8
31.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 8 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
31.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Kendrick FosterSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 9
OWN 15
0
28.2%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 9
OWN 15
+38
27.7%
David Reisner punt for 48 yds, downed at the ILLINOIS 37 ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCaro 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 17END OF HALF
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:5073% → 75%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
27.5%
Trubisky, M pass incomplete to Howard, B, PENALTY ILL holding (Dunlap,Jaylen) 10 yards to the ILL43, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
26.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack Hollins, broken up by Julian HyltonSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+16
27.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 16 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
26.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+20
27.1%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Khris Francis for 20 yds to the Illin 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
26.0%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
26.0%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Elijah Hood for 9 yds to the Illin 2Similar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 1
OPP 2
0
25.2%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Mack Hollins, broken up by Darius MoselySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18MISSED FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:3072% → 72%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
28.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-4
27.8%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
29.4%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 20 yds to the NCaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
26.9%
Elijah Hood run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
50
+19
26.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 19 yds to the Illin 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
26.3%
Elijah Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+7
26.3%
Mitch Trubisky run for 7 yds to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
26.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass incomplete to Bug Howard, broken up by Jaylen DunlapSimilar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+42
27.6%
Nick Weiler 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.0%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
29.0%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 25Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
27.8%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ke'Shawn Vaughn for 1 yd to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 22
OWN 13
+3
27.2%
David Reisner punt for 47 yds , Ryan Switzer returns for 3 yds to the NCaro 43Similar
Q3 11:30
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-13
27.3%
ILLINOIS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ke'Shawn Vaughn) to the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 20TD
4 plays · 57 yds · 1:0975% → 87%
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
25.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 17 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
24.9%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Bug Howard for 15 yds to the Illin 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
24.4%
Elijah Hood run for 5 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+20
13.3%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
17.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Ainslie Johnson for 9 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
18.6%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the Illin 33Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
18.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Nathan Echard for 3 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
18.4%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Ke'Shawn VaughnSimilar
Q3 8:25
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+2
17.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 35 Ke'Shawn Vaughn fumbled, recovered by Illin Ke'Shawn Vaughn , return for 2 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+6
17.3%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Zach Grant for 6 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 8:25
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
18.3%
David Reisner punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Ryan Switzer at the NCaro 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-3
13.6%
T.J. Logan run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 5Similar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 13
OWN 5
+10
13.7%
T.J. Logan run for 10 yds to the NCaro 15Similar
Q3 4:58
3RD & 3
OWN 15
-3
14.1%
Mitch Trubisky sacked by Chunky Clements for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 12Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 6
OWN 12
0
14.3%
Tom Sheldon punt for 45 yds, downed at the Illin 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 23TD
11 plays · 57 yds · 3:0516% → 27%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
16.0%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin HardeeSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
15.8%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Justin Hardee, broken up by Dominquie GreenSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-5
15.1%
Lunt,Wes pass complete to Cain,Desmond for 13 yards to the NC44 (Miles, D), PENALTY ILL illegal formation 5 yards to the ILL38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+15
14.4%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Grant,Zach, PENALTY NC face mask (Ross, D) 15 yards to the NC47, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
16.5%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-1
16.4%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 48Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+15
15.6%
Lunt,Wes pass incomplete to Turner,Malik, PENALTY NC pass interference (Lawrence, D) 15 yards to the NC33, 1ST DOWN ILL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+25
17.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 25 yds to the NCaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
17.5%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 7 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
17.5%
Wes Lunt run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 7 Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by Illin Wes LuntSimilar
Q4 14:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
27.4%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 24TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3380% → 93%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
20.0%
T.J. Logan run for 15 yds to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
19.4%
T.J. Logan run for 15 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-3
18.6%
Mitch Trubisky run for a loss of 3 yards to the Illin 31Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 13
OPP 31
-5
18.8%
Trubisky, M pass complete to Logan, T for 8 yards to the ILL23 (Crawford,James), PENALTY NC illegal formation 5 yards to the ILL36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+6
19.7%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Austin Proehl for 6 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+23
19.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Jake Bargas for 23 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST down ILLINOIS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
7.1%
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 25DOWNS
15 plays · 51 yds · 0:0012% → 14%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
12.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
12.1%
Kendrick Foster run for no gain to the Illin 25Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+14
11.9%
Wes Lunt sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 5 yards to the Illin 34 Wes Lunt fumbled, recovered by Illin Joe Spencer , return for 0 yards , return for 14 yds to the Illin 34Similar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
12.8%
Ke'Shawn Vaughn run for 2 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
13.1%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik Turner, broken up by Patrice ReneSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
12.5%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+19
13.7%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 19 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
14.5%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the NCaro 34Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 6
OPP 34
0
15.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Sam Mays, broken up by M.J. StewartSimilar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+7
14.4%
Wes Lunt run for 7 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
15.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+7
14.9%
Wes Lunt pass complete to Desmond Cain for 7 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 3
OPP 20
0
14.9%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Andrew DavisSimilar
Q4 12:22
4TH & 3
OPP 20
-4
14.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 24 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Illin ILLINOIS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 26TD
3 plays · 76 yds · 0:4095% → 99%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
5.4%
Trubisky, M pass incomplete to Hollins, M, PENALTY ILL pass interference (Mosely,Darius) 6 yards to the NC30, 1ST DOWN NC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
5.5%
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Ryan Switzer for 8 yds to the NCaro 38Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+62
1.2%
Elijah Hood run for 62 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 27PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.3%
Wes Lunt pass incomplete to Malik TurnerSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
1.2%
Kendrick Foster run for 8 yds to the Illin 33Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
1.3%
Kendrick Foster run for 4 yds to the Illin 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
1.3%
Wes Lunt pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-2
1.3%
Kendrick Foster run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 35Similar
Q4 6:49
3RD & 12
OWN 35
+1
1.2%
Wes Lunt run for 1 yd to the Illin 36Similar
Q4 6:49
4TH & 11
OWN 36
+28
1.2%
David Reisner punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Illin 37 , Austin Proehl returns for 28 yds to the Illin 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 28FG
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
0.8%
Khris Francis run for 16 yds to the Illin 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
0.8%
Khris Francis run for no gain to the Illin 21Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+1
0.8%
Khris Francis run for 1 yd to the Illin 20Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 9
OPP 20
-4
0.8%
Khris Francis run for a loss of 4 yards to the Illin 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
0.2%
Tre Nation run for 11 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
0.2%
Tre Nation run for 3 yds to the Illin 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:22
Elijah Hood run for 7 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 8:25
Mitch Trubisky pass complete to Mack Hollins for 20 yds for a TD, (Nick Weiler KICK)
-11.1
TD · Q4 14:55
Wes Lunt pass complete to Malik Turner for 7 yds for a TD, (Chase McLaughlin KICK)
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com