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MER

Mercer 10 at Georgia Tech 35

GT
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Bobby Dodd Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadMER aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreMER score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.2GT 86.4%Cole Fisher 31 Yd Field GoalAWAY 10 - HOME 21 · Q3 6:40
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:40 · Cole Fisher 31 Yd Field Goal
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior+8.9Home team on offense+12.8Score differential+4.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.9Garbage-time factor+1.5Blowout margin+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:30: Avery Ward 32 Yd pass from John Russ (Cole Fisher Kick) — MER win probability +3.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: MER has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:39: Matthew Jordan 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +4.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:17: Marcus Marshall 10 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +6.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:07: Justin Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by Eric Jackson — GT win probability +4.0 pts (now 89%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:25: Matthew Jordan 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +9.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MER made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 3:02MER 4th & 5 at MER 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  2. Q2 10:39MER 4th & 6 at MER 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  3. Q2 9:01GT 4th & 18 at GT 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.9%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 3:02MER 4th & 4 at GT 42, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−1.7
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:12MER 4th & 1 at GT 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.1%−0.4
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.4%
    38% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:14MER 4th & 1 at GT 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.2%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q3 6:40MER 4th & 4 at GT 14, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−8.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:35GT 4th & 1 at GT 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.7%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:17MER 4th & 10 at GT 20, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:00MER 4th & 10 at MER 3, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MER made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:30MER Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:02GT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:39GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:17GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 0:25GT Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:57GT Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
GTDrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 52 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
74.1%
Qua Searcy run for 13 yds to the GTech 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
74.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 9 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
74.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
50
+6
74.1%
Clinton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Mercr 44Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+6
74.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 6 yds to the Mercr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
74.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 5 yds to the Mercr 33Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
74.1%
Marcus Marshall run for 8 yds to the Mercr 25 Marcus Marshall fumbled, recovered by Mercr Zach JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 2TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0027% → 31%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
73.4%
John Russ pass complete to Sam Walker for 12 yds to the Mercr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
73.3%
Alex Lakes run for 3 yds to the Mercr 40Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
73.2%
John Russ pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 5 yds to the Mercr 45Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+12
73.1%
John Russ pass complete to Sam Walker for 12 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
73.1%
Alex Lakes run for 2 yds to the GTech 41Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
73.1%
John Russ pass complete to Stephen Houzah for no gain to the GTech 41Similar
Q1 11:30
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+9
73.1%
John Russ pass complete to Avery Ward for 9 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
73.0%
John Russ pass incomplete to Sam WalkerSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+32
69.2%
Avery Ward 32 Yd pass from John Russ (Cole Fisher Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 3TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 4:2870% → 72%
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
70.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Qua Searcy for 12 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
70.7%
Justin Thomas run for 8 yds to the Mercr 45Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
70.9%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the Mercr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
70.8%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the Mercr 37Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
70.9%
Marcus Marshall run for 2 yds to the Mercr 35Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+15
70.8%
MERCER Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Williams) to the Mercr 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
71.1%
Justin Thomas rush for 4 yards to the MER16, PENALTY GT illegal block (J.J. Green) 10 yards to the MER30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 20
OPP 30
+11
70.9%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Mikell Lands-Davis for 11 yds to the Mercr 19Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+6
71.1%
Justin Thomas run for 6 yds to the Mercr 13Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+13
72.4%
Justin Thomas 13 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.2%
John Russ pass complete to Stephen Houzah for 4 yds to the Mercr 29Similar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
70.9%
John Russ run for 3 yds to the Mercr 32Similar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
71.2%
John Russ pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 6 yds to the Mercr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.7%
John Russ pass incomplete to Stephen HouzahSimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
70.7%
John Russ pass incomplete to Avery WardSimilar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
71.2%
John Russ run for 5 yds to the Mercr 43Similar
Q1 3:02
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
71.3%
Tyler Zielenske punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 5TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:5171% → 77%
Q1 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.0%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Brad StewartSimilar
Q1 0:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+31
70.9%
Justin Thomas run for 31 yds to the Mercr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
72.2%
Lynn Grffin run for 11 yds to the Mercr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
72.3%
Marcus Allen run for 4 yds to the Mercr 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+5
72.5%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the Mercr 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+4
72.1%
Marcus Allen run for 4 yds to the Mercr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
72.5%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the Mercr 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
0
72.5%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+17
72.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 17 yds to the Mercr 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
72.5%
Matthew Jordan run for 5 yds to the Mercr 1Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.9%
Matthew Jordan 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.0%
John Russ pass complete to Sam Walker for 5 yds to the Mercr 30Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
74.6%
Payton Usher run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mercr 29Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
75.3%
John Russ pass incomplete to Avery WardSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+15
75.9%
Tyler Zielenske punt for 50 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 15 yds to the GTech 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
76.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Ricky JeuneSimilar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
76.0%
Qua Searcy run for a loss of 9 yards to the GTech 28 Qua Searcy fumbled, recovered by GTech Qua Searcy , return for 1 yd to the GTech 28Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 18
OWN 28
0
74.9%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Clinton LynchSimilar
Q2 9:01
4TH & 18
OWN 28
0
74.4%
Grant Aasen punt for 42 yds, downed at the Mercr 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 8PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 4:4425% → 26%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
75.5%
John Russ sacked by Anree Saint-Amour for a loss of 2 yards to the Mercr 28Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+5
75.9%
Alex Lakes run for 5 yds to the Mercr 33Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+9
75.9%
John Russ pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 9 yds to the Mercr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
74.8%
John Russ pass complete to Jordan Marshall for 1 yd to the Mercr 43Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+9
74.9%
John Russ run for 9 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
73.9%
Alex Lakes run for 5 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+3
73.7%
Payton Usher run for 3 yds to the GTech 40Similar
Q2 7:46
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-2
73.8%
Alex Lakes run for a loss of 2 yards to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 3:02
4TH & 4
OPP 42
0
74.4%
Tyler Zielenske punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Brad Stewart at the GTech 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 91 yds · 1:3876% → 85%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+31
75.7%
Qua Searcy run for 31 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
77.9%
Clinton Lynch run for 16 yds to the Mercr 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
78.4%
Qua Searcy run for 3 yds to the Mercr 41Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+31
78.2%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Ricky Jeune for 31 yds to the Mercr 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
84.7%
Marcus Marshall 10 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 10DOWNS
12 plays · 37 yds · 1:0517% → 15%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
83.0%
John Russ pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 13 yds to the Mercr 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
82.3%
John Russ pass complete to Alex Lakes for 8 yds to the Mercr 46Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+7
82.2%
Alex Lakes run for 7 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
81.8%
Alex Lakes run for 5 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OPP 42
0
82.8%
John Russ pass incomplete to Avery WardSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+4
83.3%
John Russ pass complete to Payton Usher for 4 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q2 0:12
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
84.8%
John Russ pass incomplete to Jordan MarshallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
88.7%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete, broken up by Eric JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 12FG
22 plays · 61 yds · 8:2015% → 14%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.1%
Alex Lakes run for 2 yds to the Mercr 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
85.0%
John Russ pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+16
85.4%
John Russ pass complete to Alex Lakes for 16 yds to the Mercr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
84.3%
John Russ pass complete to Kelby Brock for 4 yds to the Mercr 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+3
83.7%
John Russ run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
50
+2
83.7%
John Russ pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 2 yds to the GTech 48Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+2
85.7%
Stephen Houzah run for 2 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.4%
John Russ pass incomplete to Sam WalkerSimilar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
85.9%
John Russ pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 9 yds to the GTech 37Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
85.3%
Alex Lakes run for 3 yds to the GTech 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
84.7%
John Russ pass complete to Payton Usher for 9 yds to the GTech 25Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 1
OPP 25
-4
84.5%
John Russ sacked by Patrick Gamble for a loss of 4 yards to the GTech 29 MERCER Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
86.6%
John Russ run for 9 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
85.8%
Josh Jones pass incomplete to Avery WardSimilar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
86.0%
John Russ pass complete to Payton Usher for 8 yds to the GTech 12Similar
Q3 9:14
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-5
86.6%
MERCER Penalty, false start (Bret Niederreither) to the GTech 17Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+3
87.6%
John Russ pass complete to Sam Walker for 3 yds to the GTech 14Similar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
86.4%
Cole Fisher 31 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 13TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 6:1086% → 97%
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
86.4%
Matthew Jordan run for 5 yds to the GTech 27Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+3
86.4%
Matthew Jordan run for 3 yds to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 2
OWN 30
+1
86.1%
Matthew Jordan run for 1 yd to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 6:35
4TH & 1
OWN 31
+21
85.8%
Chase Alford run for 21 yds to the Mercr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
87.4%
Qua Searcy run for 11 yds to the Mercr 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
87.4%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the Mercr 33Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+3
87.7%
Marcus Marshall run for 3 yds to the Mercr 30Similar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+5
87.2%
MERCER Penalty, offside defense (Austin Barrett) to the Mercr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
87.7%
Qua Searcy run for 17 yds to the Mercr 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
87.7%
Clinton Lynch run for 6 yds to the Mercr 2Similar
Q3 6:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.7%
Matthew Jordan run for 1 yd to the Mercr 1Similar
Q3 0:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.7%
Matthew Jordan 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 14MISSED FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:083% → 2%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
97.5%
John Russ pass complete to Marquise Irvin for 21 yds to the Mercr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
97.4%
John Russ pass complete to Sam Walker for 9 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
96.3%
John Russ pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+1
96.5%
John Russ run for 1 yd to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
97.3%
John Russ pass complete to Avery Ward for 24 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
96.9%
John Russ pass incomplete to Kelby BrockSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
97.0%
John Russ pass incomplete to Kelby BrockSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
97.3%
John Russ pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
97.8%
Cole Fisher 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Kyle Cerge-HendersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 15FUMBLE
14 plays · 78 yds · 3:2997% → 98%
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.4%
Lynn Grffin run for 8 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
97.5%
Marcus Marshall run for 4 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
97.5%
Matthew Jordan run for 12 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
97.6%
Matthew Jordan run for 5 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q4 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+5
97.6%
Matthew Jordan run for 5 yds to the Mercr 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
97.6%
Clinton Lynch run for 4 yds to the Mercr 42Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+5
98.1%
MERCER Penalty, offside defense (Dorian Kithcart) to the Mercr 37Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
98.1%
Matthew Jordan run for 4 yds to the Mercr 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
98.2%
Matthew Jordan run for 1 yd to the Mercr 32Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+1
98.1%
Lynn Grffin run for 1 yd to the Mercr 31Similar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+24
98.1%
Qua Searcy run for 24 yds to the Mercr 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
98.2%
Clinton Lynch run for 5 yds to the Mercr 2Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.2%
Quaide Weimerskirch run for no gain to the Mercr 2 Quaide Weimerskirch fumbled, forced by Brandon Gurley, recovered by Mercr Brandon GurleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
98.8%
Alex Lakes run for no gain to the Mercr 3Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
98.8%
John Russ pass incomplete to Marquise IrvinSimilar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
98.8%
John Russ pass incomplete to Kelby BrockSimilar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+8
98.8%
Tyler Zielenske punt for 43 yds , Brad Stewart returns for 8 yds to the Mercr 11 MERCER Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jordan Marshall) to the Mercr 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 17TD
4 plays · 23 yds · 1:5799% → 100%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
98.7%
TaQuon Marshall run for 1 yd to the Mercr 22Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+6
98.7%
Nate Cottrell run for 6 yds to the Mercr 16Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+5
98.7%
Austin McClellan run for 5 yds to the Mercr 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
TaQuon Marshall 11 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MERDrive 18END OF GAME
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.9%
Michael Haynes run for 3 yds to the Mercr 28Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
CJ Kleckley run for 3 yds to the Mercr 31Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
99.9%
Michael Haynes run for 8 yds to the Mercr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.9%
Charlie Davidson run for 2 yds to the Mercr 41Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
99.9%
Michael Haynes pass complete to Kelby Brock for 10 yds to the GTech 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.8%
CJ Kleckley run for 5 yds to the GTech 44Similar
Q4 3:57
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
99.8%
CJ Kleckley run for 2 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q4 3:57
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
99.8%
Michael Haynes run for 4 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:25
Matthew Jordan 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+9
TD · Q2 1:17
Marcus Marshall 10 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+6.4
TD · Q2 10:39
Matthew Jordan 1 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+4.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com