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WAKE

Wake Forest 24 at Duke 14

DUKE
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadWAKE aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreWAKE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:33 · Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+14.6Home team on offense−2.0Garbage-time factor+0.2Score differential−2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:58: Cade Carney run for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +9.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:04: Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +14.3 pts (now 55%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:12: Daniel Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +14.8 pts (now 70%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:02: Cade Carney run for 55 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK) — WAKE win probability +20.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:54: Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the WFrst 36 — WAKE win probability +10.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WAKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WAKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00WAKE 4th & 6 at WAKE 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:07DUKE 4th & 1 at WAKE 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    69.8%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:07WAKE 4th & 14 at WAKE 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:16WAKE 4th & 14 at DUKE 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.0%−0.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:50DUKE 4th & 4 at DUKE 20, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:58WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:12DUKE 4th & 8 at WAKE 13, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    71.3%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:38DUKE 4th & 17 at WAKE 35, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    73.8%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:58DUKE 4th & 7 at DUKE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:33WAKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.8
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:00DUKE 4th & 11 at WAKE 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−5.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:05WAKE 4th & 5 at WAKE 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:28DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:58DUKE 4th & 19 at DUKE 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−5.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:29WAKE 4th & 4 at WAKE 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.4%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.7%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:34WAKE 4th & 6 at DUKE 27, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    70.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    61.9%−8.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:36DUKE 4th & 10 at DUKE 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.7%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:50WAKE 4th & 2 at DUKE 15, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.4%−1.3
    83% to make
    Punt
    76.7%−9.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WAKE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:07DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:58WAKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:04WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:12DUKE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:02WAKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WAKEDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
74.2%
John Wolford sacked by Dominic McDonald and Corbin McCarthy for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
74.2%
John Wolford run for 5 yds to the WFrst 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
74.2%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+15
74.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 46 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 15 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
17 plays · 60 yds · 6:3374% → 75%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
74.0%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 41Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+13
74.0%
Jela Duncan run for 13 yds to the WFrst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
74.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 4 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
74.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+4
74.0%
Daniel Jones run for 4 yds to the WFrst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
74.1%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the WFrst 34Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+8
74.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the WFrst 26Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
74.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 3 yds to the WFrst 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
74.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 8 yds to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+5
74.1%
Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the WFrst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
74.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
74.1%
Daniel Jones run for no gain to the WFrst 10Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
74.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony Nash for a 1ST down WAKE FOREST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Brad Watson) to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
74.1%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
74.1%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the WFrst 1Similar
Q1 13:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
74.0%
Jela Duncan run for no gain to the WFrst 1Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.0%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 7:07
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+30
75.3%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 38 , Ryan Smith returns for 30 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
74.8%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Chuck Wade for 2 yds to the WFrst 27Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
74.7%
Kendall Hinton run for no gain to the WFrst 27Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-6
75.0%
Kendall Hinton sacked by Ben Humphreys for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · -16 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
75.7%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 41 Daniel Jones fumbled, forced by Duke Ejiofor, recovered by WFrst Cameron Glenn , return for 5 yds to the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
74.1%
Carney, C rush for 20 yards to the DU21 (Giles-Harris, J), PENALTY WF holding 10 yards to the WF49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 20
OWN 49
0
74.6%
John Wolford run for no gain to the WFrst 49Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 20
OWN 49
+8
74.7%
John Wolford pass complete to Devin Pike for 8 yds to the Duke 43Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-2
74.6%
John Wolford sacked by DeVon Edwards for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 45Similar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
75.2%
Dom Maggio punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Duke 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 2:50
4TH & 4
OWN 20
+1
74.5%
Austin Parker punt for 55 yds , Tabari Hines returns for 1 yd to the WFrst 21 WAKE FOREST Penalty, illegal block (Jessie Bates) to the WFrst 15Similar
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
75.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 18Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+2
75.2%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 4
OWN 20
0
74.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 28 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+23
74.8%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cam Serigne for 23 yds to the WFrst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.3%
Tabari Hines run for 5 yds to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 1:58
2ND & 5
OWN 43
0
73.9%
Kendall Hinton run for no gain to the WFrst 43Similar
Q1 1:58
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
74.3%
John Wolford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 5
OWN 43
-2
74.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 47 yds , Ryan Smith returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8MISSED FG
8 plays · 79 yds · 3:0475% → 76%
Q1 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
75.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 5 yds to the Duke 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 13
-1
75.2%
Jela Duncan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 12Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+14
74.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 14 yds to the Duke 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+59
75.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 59 yds to the WFrst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
76.3%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the WFrst 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-1
76.3%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
76.0%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
75.5%
AJ Reed 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:1925% → 25%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
75.0%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for 10 yds to the WFrst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
75.6%
John Wolford run for 8 yds to the WFrst 38Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 2
OWN 38
-1
74.6%
John Wolford pass complete to Tabari Hines for a loss of 1 yard to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+7
75.3%
John Wolford sacked by DeVon Edwards for a loss of 6 yards to the WFrst 28 John Wolford fumbled, recovered by Duke Joe Giles-Harris , return for 0 yards , return for 7 yds to the WFrst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0078% → 76%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
77.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 3 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 10:38
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
77.7%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 7
OPP 25
-5
77.2%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 30Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 12
OPP 30
-5
76.7%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 35Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 17
OPP 35
0
76.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Johnathan LloydSimilar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 17
OPP 35
0
75.5%
Austin Parker punt for 20 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates at the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 11TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:5124% → 36%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
76.3%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 18Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+32
76.2%
Kendall Hinton run for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
50
-2
74.5%
Chuck Wade run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 48Similar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 12
OWN 48
+37
75.4%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cortez Lewis for 37 yds to the Duke 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
73.7%
Cade Carney run for 8 yds to the Duke 7Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
64.0%
Cade Carney run for 7 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
70.9%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
70.1%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Jela DuncanSimilar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
69.2%
DUKE Penalty, false start (Corbin McCarthy) to the Duke 28Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
68.6%
Austin Parker punt for 41 yds, downed at the WFrst 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
66.2%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 37Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
65.1%
Matt Colburn run for 5 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
64.8%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Alex BachmanSimilar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+15
65.3%
Kendall Hinton run for 15 yds to the Duke 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
64.1%
Kendall Hinton run for 3 yds to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
64.1%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
64.4%
Kendall Hinton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
65.5%
Dom Maggio punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 14MISSED FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 2:2569% → 66%
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
68.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 7 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
69.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
69.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 15 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
70.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 8 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+9
71.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 9 yds to the WFrst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+12
71.1%
Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the WFrst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
72.3%
Daniel Jones sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 26Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 12
OPP 26
0
70.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 12
OPP 26
-5
68.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WFrst 31Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 17
OPP 31
+6
68.1%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the WFrst 25Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 25
+43
66.1%
AJ Reed 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -11 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
67.1%
Daniel Jones sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-3
66.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Duke Ejiofor for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 14 Daniel Jones fumbled, recovered by WFrst Duke Ejiofor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 16TD
6 plays · 14 yds · 2:2441% → 55%
Q3 14:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
59.3%
Cade Carney run for 9 yds to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
59.3%
Kendall Hinton run for no gain to the Duke 5Similar
Q3 14:28
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
60.4%
Kendall Hinton run for 1 yd to the Duke 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
59.3%
Cade Carney run for 2 yds to the Duke 2Similar
Q3 14:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
59.3%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd to the Duke 1Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
45.1%
Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5250% → 70%
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
49.5%
Daniel Jones run for 6 yds to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
51.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 12:04
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+56
49.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 56 yds to the WFrst 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
55.0%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Anthony NashSimilar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+10
55.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 10 yds to the WFrst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
69.8%
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
62.4%
Kendall Hinton run for no gain to the WFrst 17Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+3
62.9%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cade Carney for 3 yds to the WFrst 20Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 20
-5
63.8%
WAKE FOREST Penalty, false start (Ryan Anderson) to the WFrst 15Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 12
OWN 15
+7
64.0%
Tyler Bell run for 7 yds to the WFrst 22Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
64.8%
Dom Maggio punt for 56 yds, downed at the Duke 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
64.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 13 yds to the Duke 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
65.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for a loss of 4 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 7:28
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+5
64.4%
Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 7:28
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+1
64.0%
Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 7:28
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
62.9%
Austin Parker punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WFrst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 20TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:1141% → 63%
Q3 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
59.3%
Matt Colburn run for 6 yds to the WFrst 42Similar
Q3 5:13
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
57.2%
Kendall Hinton run for 3 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q3 4:02
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+55
37.0%
Cade Carney run for 55 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 40%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
42.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 9 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+5
44.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
43.1%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 33Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-1
42.3%
Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 32Similar
Q3 3:58
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-7
40.8%
Daniel Jones sacked by Marquel Lee for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q3 3:58
4TH & 19
OWN 25
0
39.5%
Austin Parker punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tabari Hines at the WFrst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q3 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.3%
Kendall Hinton pass incomplete to Tabari HinesSimilar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
35.9%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 35Similar
Q3 1:29
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
37.3%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Cade Carney for 6 yds to the WFrst 41Similar
Q3 1:29
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
35.9%
Dom Maggio punt for 59 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
36.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 8 yds to the Duke 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
38.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 4 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
37.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 15 yds to the Duke 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
40.7%
Daniel Jones sacked by Wendell Dunn for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 42
0
37.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+7
36.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jela Duncan for 7 yds to the Duke 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
36.4%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 24INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
30.3%
Matt Colburn run for 29 yds to the WFrst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
26.9%
Matt Colburn run for 4 yds to the Duke 47Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
26.4%
Matt Colburn run for 1 yd to the Duke 46Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+15
26.9%
Kendall Hinton run for 15 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
25.7%
Matt Colburn run for 2 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
25.5%
Kendall Hinton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+2
26.8%
Tyler Bell run for 2 yds to the Duke 27Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 6
OPP 27
+3
29.7%
Kendall Hinton pass intercepted Joe Giles-Harris return for 3 yds to the Duke 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
29.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 21 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
33.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. RahmingSimilar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
32.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm, broken up by Grant DawsonSimilar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
30.2%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Amari HendersonSimilar
Q4 8:36
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
28.5%
Austin Parker punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jessie Bates at the WFrst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 26FG
7 plays · 70 yds · 4:0777% → 89%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
23.5%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
23.8%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the WFrst 15Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+62
24.8%
Kendall Hinton pass complete to Alex Bachman for 62 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
18.8%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
18.8%
Cade Carney run for no gain to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+5
19.6%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the Duke 15Similar
Q4 3:50
4TH & 2
OPP 15
+34
11.4%
Mike Weaver 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27INT
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0011% → 16%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
10.9%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming, broken up by Josh OkonyeSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
10.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jela Duncan for 8 yds to the Duke 33Similar
Q4 3:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+13
11.6%
Daniel Jones run for 13 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
13.0%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jela Duncan for 9 yds to the WFrst 45Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+3
14.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Jela Duncan for 3 yds to the WFrst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
14.1%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 10 yds to the WFrst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
16.5%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+7
16.1%
Daniel Jones pass intercepted Brad Watson return for 7 yds to the WFrst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WAKEDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:1594% → 95%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
6.1%
Cade Carney run for 6 yds to the WFrst 36Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
4.9%
Cade Carney run for 3 yds to the WFrst 39Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
4.8%
Cade Carney run for 5 yds to the WFrst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
4.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 42Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-2
4.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 40Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 14
OWN 40
-2
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WFrst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:02
Cade Carney run for 55 yds for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
-20.2
TD · Q3 10:12
Daniel Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q3 12:04
Cade Carney run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mike Weaver KICK)
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com