Try the model
LOU

Louisville 62 at Syracuse 28

SYR
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 9, 2016 · JMA Wireless Dome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · SYR
modelSYR aheadLOU aheadconfidence bandkey playSYR scoreLOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.3SYR 1.9%Evan O'Hara 41 yd FG GOODAWAY 48 - HOME 28 · Q4 10:16
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:16 · Evan O'Hara 41 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+58.0+29.00−29.0−58.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 198Home team on offense−45.7Pregame prior−5.9Score differential−24.1Garbage-time factor−8.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−6.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−5.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:11: Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +3.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:42: Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 47 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +3.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:40: Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +5.1 pts (now 17%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 12:18: Traveon Samuel run for 21 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK) — LOU win probability +7.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: LOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:49: Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK) — SYR win probability +8.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: SYR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SYR made the numbers' call on 11 of 11LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:29SYR 4th & 7 at SYR 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.8%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:45LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:48SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:19SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 47, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:51SYR 4th & 25 at SYR 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:01LOU 4th & 3 at LOU 25, up 21
    Close callPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:57SYR 4th & 3 at LOU 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%−0.3
    87% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−3.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:48SYR 4th & 8 at SYR 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:15LOU 4th & 10 at LOU 15, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:21SYR 4th & 10 at SYR 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:40SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:47LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:12LOU 4th & 3 at SYR 11, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.8%−0.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    81.2%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:25SYR 4th & 13 at SYR 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.3%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:16LOU 4th & 9 at SYR 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−6.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:59SYR 4th & 15 at SYR 15, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:16LOU 4th & 7 at SYR 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.4%
    68% to make
    Punt
    91.4%−3.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:02SYR 4th & 6 at SYR 27, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:26LOU 4th & 8 at LOU 45, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SYR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4LOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:44LOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:13LOU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 10:17LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:58SYR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 4:11LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 3:23LOU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 2:42SYR Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 0:40SYR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 12:18LOU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 6:49SYR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 8:55LOU Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:31LOU Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LOUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
19.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 72 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5720% → 20%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
19.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 8 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-8
20.0%
Eric Dungey sacked by Drew Bailey for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 35Similar
Q1 13:33
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
20.1%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:0780% → 80%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
20.1%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
20.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 32Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+61
20.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 61 yds to the Syrac 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
19.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3920% → 20%
Q1 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
19.8%
Dontae Strickland run for 1 yd to the Syrac 27Similar
Q1 11:36
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
19.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 2 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
19.8%
Eric Dungey run for no gain to the Syrac 29Similar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 7
OWN 29
0
19.7%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 5TD
1 play · 72 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+72
18.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 72 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 6TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:0919% → 20%
Q1 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
18.9%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
18.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 7 yds to the Syrac 32Similar
Q1 9:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
19.1%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 6 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
18.8%
Moe Neal run for 2 yds to the Syrac 40Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+16
16.5%
Moe Neal run for 16 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
17.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 10 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
17.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 6 yds to the Lvile 28Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+3
17.7%
Moe Neal run for 3 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
17.3%
Eric Dungey run for 3 yds to the Lvile 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
17.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Moe Neal for 5 yds to the Lvile 17Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+2
17.6%
Moe Neal run for 2 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+15
20.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 15 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0381% → 81%
Q1 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
19.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Lvile 23Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 1
OWN 23
0
19.0%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 1
OWN 23
-9
19.2%
Radcliff, Brandon rush for 2 yards to the LOUISVILLE25, PENALTY LOUISVILLE holding (Mahoni, Kiola) 9 yards to the LOUISVILLE14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 10
OWN 14
0
19.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 10
OWN 14
0
19.4%
Mason King punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the Syrac 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5120% → 20%
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
20.1%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
19.9%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+4
19.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Brisly Estime for 4 yds to the Syrac 43Similar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
19.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 68 yds · 0:2681% → 85%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+55
18.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 55 yds to the Syrac 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
15.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 10PUNT
9 plays · 31 yds · 1:4116% → 15%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
15.8%
Eric Dungey run for 5 yds to the Syrac 21Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 5
OWN 21
-1
15.6%
Eric Dungey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 20Similar
Q1 3:11
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+15
15.4%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Shaq Wiggins) to the Syrac 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
15.6%
Eric Dungey run for 12 yds to the Syrac 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
16.0%
Moe Neal run for no gain to the Syrac 47Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
15.8%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
15.5%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Moe Neal, broken up by Shaq WigginsSimilar
Q1 2:19
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
15.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 11FUMBLE
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:1386% → 87%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
14.2%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 24Similar
Q1 1:43
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
13.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q1 1:38
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+9
14.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 9 yds to the Lvile 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
13.8%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon SamuelSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+29
13.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 29 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
13.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Syrac 35Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+10
12.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Devante Peete for 10 yds Devante Peete fumbled, forced by Mo Hasan, recovered by SyracSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 2:0414% → 13%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
14.2%
Dontae Strickland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 24Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+1
13.9%
Dontae Strickland run for 1 yd to the Syrac 25Similar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+18
13.7%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Dontae Strickland for 18 yds to the Syrac 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
14.4%
Dontae Strickland run for 3 yds to the Syrac 46Similar
Q2 13:49
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-18
14.4%
Eric Dungey sacked by James Hearns for a loss of 18 yards to the Syrac 28 Eric Dungey fumbled, forced by James Hearns, recovered by SyracSimilar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 25
OWN 28
0
13.4%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:51
4TH & 25
OWN 28
-2
13.3%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 52 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4388% → 87%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
12.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+7
12.4%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 25Similar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 25
0
12.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 12:01
4TH & 3
OWN 25
+2
12.6%
Mason King punt for 39 yds , Brisly Estime returns for 2 yds to the Syrac 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 2:0114% → 14%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.7%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
13.4%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Moe NealSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+23
13.2%
Brisly Estime pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 23 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
14.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 40Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+22
13.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 22 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
14.0%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-1
13.9%
Dontae Strickland run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 19Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 11
OPP 19
+8
13.4%
Eric Dungey run for 8 yds to the Lvile 11Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 3
OPP 11
0
13.8%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 15FUMBLE
6 plays · 42 yds · 2:0987% → 87%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
12.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 16 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+12
12.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 12 yds to the Lvile 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
12.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Lvile 43Similar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 43
-15
12.1%
Scott, L.J. rush for loss of 3 yards to the LOUISVILLE40, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul (Mahoni, Kiola) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 21
OWN 28
+5
13.1%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 7:41
3RD & 16
OWN 33
+20
13.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 20 yds Cole Hikutini fumbled, forced by Zaire Franklin, recovered by SyracSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:5313% → 13%
Q2 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
13.4%
SYRACUSE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Syrac 42Similar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+2
12.8%
Eric Dungey run for 2 yds to the Syrac 44Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
12.7%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Moe NealSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+5
12.5%
Dungey, Eric pass complete to Neal, Moe for 1 yard to the SYRACUSE45, PENALTY LOUISVILLE offside (Hearns, James) 5 yards to the SYRACUSE49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
13.0%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Steve IshmaelSimilar
Q2 6:48
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
12.7%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 17TD
11 plays · 84 yds · 3:2587% → 92%
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
12.7%
SYRACUSE Penalty, Illegal Formation (5 Yards) to the Lvile 21Similar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
12.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Brandon RadcliffSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
12.5%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+16
12.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 16 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
12.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 12 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-8
11.8%
Lamar Jackson sacked by McKinley Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 41Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+9
11.6%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 9
50
+28
11.3%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 13 yds to the SYRACUSE 37 for a 1ST down SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (Parris Bennett) to the Syrac 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
10.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Syrac 17Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+8
10.6%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jeremy Smith for 8 yds to the Syrac 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
8.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 18TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 0:259% → 12%
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+32
9.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 32 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
12.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 47 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1888% → 88%
Q2 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
11.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari StaplesSimilar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
11.7%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q2 2:23
3RD & 10
OWN 15
0
12.1%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen SmithSimilar
Q2 2:15
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+53
12.2%
Mason King punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Brisly Estime at the SYRACUSE 47 SYRACUSE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Syrac 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 20TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 1:2911% → 17%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
11.0%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul (Fields, Devonte) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
11.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 8 yds to the Lvile 45Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+10
12.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 10 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
12.4%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
12.3%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 2 yds to the Lvile 33Similar
Q2 1:28
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+13
11.9%
Dontae Strickland run for 13 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
12.5%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 5 yds to the Lvile 15Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
12.5%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete, broken up by Devonte FieldsSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+10
12.0%
Eric Dungey run for 10 yds to the Lvile 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
12.3%
Ervin Philips run for 1 yd to the Lvile 4Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
12.3%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
17.4%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 21INT
4 plays · 40 yds · 0:2885% → 87%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+23
15.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 23 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
13.9%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 17 yds to the Syrac 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+50
12.9%
Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Daivon Ellison return for 50 yds to the Lvile 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 22DOWNS
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+55
17.8%
Cole Murphy 55 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2516% → 16%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
15.9%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:39
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
15.9%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q3 14:33
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
15.5%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:21
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
15.5%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 61 yds, downed at the Lvile 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 82 yds · 1:5585% → 94%
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+30
15.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 30 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
14.2%
Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 48Similar
Q3 13:12
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+11
13.8%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 11 yds to the Syrac 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+20
13.5%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 20 yds to the Syrac 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
6.4%
Traveon Samuel run for 21 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:299% → 9%
Q3 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
9.3%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
9.3%
SYRACUSE Penalty, False Start (Michael Lasker) to the Syrac 16Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 15
OWN 16
+9
9.2%
Moe Neal run for 9 yds to the Syrac 25Similar
Q3 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
9.2%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Brisly EstimeSimilar
Q3 11:40
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
9.1%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:4894% → 94%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
6.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Traveon Samuel for 2 yds to the Lvile 35Similar
Q3 11:02
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
6.3%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:56
3RD & 8
OWN 35
0
6.4%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 8
OWN 35
+2
6.5%
Mason King punt for 43 yds , Brisly Estime returns for 2 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 27TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 3:549% → 16%
Q3 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
9.0%
Moe Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 23Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
8.5%
Moe Neal run for no gain to the Syrac 23Similar
Q3 9:41
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+15
8.1%
Dungey, Eric pass incomplete to Philips, Ervin, PENALTY LOUISVILLE personal foul (Smith, Dee) 15 yards to the SYRACUSE38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SYRACUSE.Similar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
8.8%
Eric Dungey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 37Similar
Q3 9:11
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+18
8.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 18 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
8.2%
Eric Dungey run for 17 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
8.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 9 yds to the Lvile 19Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
8.8%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Ervin Philips for 5 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
8.8%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Ervin PhilipsSimilar
Q3 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+9
8.7%
Dontae Strickland run for 9 yds to the Lvile 5Similar
Q3 7:20
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-5
9.0%
Dungey, Eric rush for 1 yard to the LOUISVILLE4, PENALTY SYRACUSE illegal formation 5 yards to the LOUISVILLE10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+9
8.0%
Eric Dungey run for 9 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.1%
Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 28MISSED FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:2888% → 89%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
11.6%
Reggie Bonnafon run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 17 Reggie Bonnafon fumbled, recovered by Lvile Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
11.6%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie BonnafonSimilar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+33
11.9%
Lamar Jackson run for 33 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:22
1ST & 10
50
+32
10.4%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 32 yds to the Syrac 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
9.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James QuickSimilar
Q3 4:58
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+7
10.0%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Syrac 11Similar
Q3 4:16
3RD & 3
OPP 11
0
9.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:12
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
10.9%
Evan O'Hara 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4112% → 12%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
12.3%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Amba Etta-Tawo, broken up by Trumaine WashingtonSimilar
Q3 3:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+9
12.2%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Steve Ishmael for 9 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-12
12.7%
Eric Dungey sacked by TEAM for a loss of 12 yards to the Syrac 17 SYRACUSE Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Syrac 17Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+18
11.8%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 52 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 18 yds to the Lvile 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 30FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 4:5790% → 94%
Q3 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+20
9.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 20 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
9.2%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Syrac 28Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 28
0
8.9%
Lamar Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:53
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+9
9.3%
Lamar Jackson run for 9 yds to the Syrac 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
8.8%
Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Syrac 12Similar
Q3 0:42
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+2
8.7%
Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Syrac 10Similar
Q3 0:12
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+1
8.7%
Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the Syrac 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
8.3%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Geron Christian) to the Syrac 14Similar
Q4 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+5
8.5%
Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Syrac 9Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
7.3%
Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Syrac 11Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
7.1%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 2 yds James Quick fumbled, forced by Antwan Cordy, recovered by Lvile Khalil HunterSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
6.0%
Evan O'Hara 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:117% → 6%
Q4 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
6.9%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Cameron MacPherson for 3 yds to the Syrac 23Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-8
6.6%
Eric Dungey sacked by James Hearns and Keith Kelsey for a loss of 8 yards to the Syrac 15Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 15
OWN 15
0
5.9%
Eric Dungey pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:59
4TH & 15
OWN 15
0
5.9%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Syrac 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 32FG
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:3795% → 98%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
4.9%
Brandon Radcliff run for 13 yds to the Syrac 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
4.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Syrac 24Similar
Q4 10:49
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
4.2%
Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for no gain to the Syrac 24Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
4.2%
Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole HikutiniSimilar
Q4 10:16
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
1.9%
Evan O'Hara 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 33INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:012% → 2%
Q4 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
2.0%
Eric Dungey pass complete to Cameron MacPherson for 1 yd to the Syrac 24Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+3
1.9%
Dontae Strickland run for 3 yds to the Syrac 27Similar
Q4 9:03
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+7
1.9%
Eric Dungey pass intercepted Jaire Alexander return for no gain to the Syrac 48 Shaq Wiggins return for 7 yds to the Syrac 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 34TD
1 play · 48 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
0.3%
Brandon Radcliff run for 48 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 35FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:070% → 0%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
0.2%
Moe Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 20Similar
Q4 8:12
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+9
0.2%
Moe Neal run for 9 yds to the Syrac 29Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+2
0.2%
Moe Neal run for 2 yds to the Syrac 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
0.2%
Moe Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the Syrac 30 Moe Neal fumbled, forced by Chris Williams, recovered by Lvile Chris WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 36TD
1 play · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
0.2%
Jeremy Smith run for 30 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 37FUMBLE
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:160% → 0%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
0.2%
Jordan Fredericks run for 3 yds to the Syrac 26Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+1
0.1%
Jordan Fredericks run for 1 yd to the Syrac 27Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Eric Dungey pass incomplete to Jordan FredericksSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-3
0.1%
Sterling Hofrichter punt for 56 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 14 Jaire Alexander fumbled, recovered by Lvile Jaire AlexanderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LOUDrive 38PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 5:28100% → 100%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
0.2%
Malin Jones run for 1 yd to the Lvile 15Similar
Q4 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+11
0.2%
Malin Jones run for 11 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
0.2%
Malin Jones run for 5 yds to the Lvile 31Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-8
0.1%
Kyle Bolin run for a loss of 8 yards to the Lvile 23 Kyle Bolin fumbled, recovered by Lvile Kyle BolinSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 13
OWN 23
+20
0.2%
Kyle Bolin pass complete to Charles Standberry for 20 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
0.1%
Malik Williams run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
50
0
0.1%
Trey Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 3
50
0
0.1%
Trey Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 0:34
4TH & 3
50
-5
0.1%
LOUISVILLE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 45Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
0.1%
Mason King punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Sean Riley at the Syrac 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SYRDrive 39END OF GAME
2 plays · 44 yds · 0:120% → 0%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+29
0.1%
Jordan Fredericks run for 29 yds to the Syrac 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
0.1%
Zack Mahoney pass complete to Kendall Moore for 15 yds to the Lvile 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:49
Eric Dungey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q3 12:18
Traveon Samuel run for 21 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)
-7.1
TD · Q2 0:40
Eric Dungey pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 4 yds for a TD, (Cole Murphy KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com