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VILL

Villanova 7 at Pittsburgh 28

PITT
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Acrisure Stadium
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Win probability · PITT
modelPITT aheadVILL aheadconfidence bandkey playPITT scoreVILL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:43 · John Hinchen punt for 48 yds, downed at the Pitt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+43.9Home team on offense−0.2Score differential−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:19: Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +2.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:48: Steve Weyler kickoff for 61 yds , Quadree Henderson return for 96 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  3. SACK · Q3 10:35: Nathan Peterman sacked by Drew Wiley for a loss of 16 yards Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Villa Rob Rolle , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds, (Gerard Smith KICK) — VILL win probability +3.7 pts (now 5%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:33: Timeout VILLANOVA, clock 02:33 — PITT win probability +1.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: VILL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:00: Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 16 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK) — PITT win probability +1.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PITT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8VILL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00VILL 4th & 3 at PITT 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    4.8%−0.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    5.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:33PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:25VILL 4th & 12 at PITT 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:38PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:43VILL 4th & 20 at VILL 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:57PITT 4th & 4 at PITT 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:29VILL 4th & 8 at PITT 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:57PITT 4th & 7 at VILL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.1%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    90.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:42PITT 4th & 6 at VILL 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    90.1%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 11:57VILL 4th & 9 at VILL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:04VILL 4th & 9 at VILL 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.0%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:06PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 29, up 7
    Close callPunted · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:30VILL 4th & 16 at VILL 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 14:48VILL 4th & 18 at VILL 27, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:46PITT 4th & 6 at VILL 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    91.8%−2.5
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:33VILL 4th & 19 at PITT 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%−1.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    5.7%−0.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:18PITT 4th & 7 at PITT 44, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:56VILL 4th & 6 at VILL 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:25VILL 4th & 15 at PITT 35, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PITT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 7:08PITT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:19PITT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:48PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:00PITT Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
VILLDrive 1FUMBLE
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+24
96.7%
Zack Bednarczyk run for 24 yds to the Villa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
96.7%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Lincoln Collins for 6 yds to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+1
96.7%
Javon White run for 1 yd to the Pitt 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
96.7%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Javon WhiteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 45
+1
96.7%
Ed Shockley run for 1 yd to the Pitt 41 Ed Shockley fumbled, forced by Jaymar Parrish, recovered by Pitt Quintin WirginisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2896% → 96%
Q1 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
96.3%
James Conner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 13:01
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+9
96.3%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 9 yds to the Pitt 49Similar
Q1 13:01
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-3
96.3%
James Conner run for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 46Similar
Q1 11:33
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
96.1%
Ryan Winslow punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jarrett McClenton at the Villa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
96.0%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Taurus Phillips for 11 yds to the Villa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
96.0%
Jarrett McClenton run for 4 yds to the Villa 33Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+11
96.0%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Ryan Bell for 11 yds to the Villa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
96.0%
Javon White rush for no gain to the VU44 (Tyrique Jarrett), PENALTY UP face mask (Tyrique Jarrett) 15 yards to the UP41, 1ST DOWN VU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
96.0%
Aaron Forbes run for 3 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
96.0%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
96.0%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 7
OPP 38
-5
96.0%
VILLANOVA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 43Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 12
OPP 43
0
96.1%
John Hinchen punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Avonte Maddox at the Pitt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q1 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
95.5%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the Pitt 21Similar
Q1 8:38
2ND & 4
OWN 21
0
95.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:38
3RD & 4
OWN 21
0
95.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Quadree HendersonSimilar
Q1 8:38
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
95.4%
Ryan Winslow punt for 35 yds, downed at the Villa 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
95.1%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Jarrett McClenton for 13 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
95.1%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Brandon Chadbourn for 6 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 4
OPP 37
-3
95.1%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Aaron Forbes for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 40Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-13
95.1%
Zack Bednarczyk sacked by Mike Caprara for a loss of 13 yards to the Villa 47Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
95.3%
John Hinchen punt for 48 yds, downed at the Pitt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
94.6%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 6Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+5
94.6%
James Conner run for 5 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 4
OWN 11
0
94.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to James ConnerSimilar
Q1 4:57
4TH & 4
OWN 11
+13
94.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 46 yds , Jarrett McClenton returns for 13 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
93.9%
Jarrett McClenton run for 2 yds to the Pitt 42Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
93.9%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Taurus PhillipsSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 8
OPP 42
0
94.0%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete, broken up by Quintin WirginisSimilar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
94.2%
John Hinchen punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Quadree Henderson at the Pitt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:2894% → 94%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+34
94.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 19 yds to the Pitt 33 for a 1ST down VILLANOVA Penalty, personal foul (Rob Rolle) to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
94.3%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Villa 43Similar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+19
94.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 19 yds to the Villa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.5%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q1 2:25
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
94.5%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Villa 20Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 6
OPP 20
-1
94.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for a loss of 1 yard to the Villa 21Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+39
93.6%
Chris Blewitt 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 9INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
93.1%
Javon White run for 1 yd to the Villa 22Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+15
93.1%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Ryan Bell for 15 yds to the Villa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
92.9%
Javon White run for 4 yds to the Villa 41Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
92.7%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Jarrett McClenton, broken up by Terrish WebbSimilar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
92.8%
Zack Bednarczyk pass intercepted Terrish Webb return for no gain to the Villa 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0893% → 93%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, broken up by Trey JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
92.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 4 yds to the Villa 44Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 44
0
92.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
92.6%
Ryan Winslow punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
91.8%
Javon White run for 1 yd to the Villa 21Similar
Q2 11:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
91.8%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Jarrett McClenton, broken up by Jordan WhiteheadSimilar
Q2 11:57
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
92.0%
Zack Bednarczyk run for no gain to the Villa 21Similar
Q2 11:57
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+31
92.2%
John Hinchen punt for 42 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 31 yds to the Villa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 12TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:1392% → 94%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
92.4%
James Conner run for 8 yds to the Villa 24Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+2
92.4%
James Conner run for 2 yds to the Villa 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
92.4%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Villa 19Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+5
92.4%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 5 yds to the Villa 14Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 2
OPP 14
+5
92.2%
James Conner rush for 4 yards to the VU10 (Rasaan Stewart), PENALTY VU offside defense 5 yards to the VU9, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
92.4%
Nathan Peterman run for 6 yds to the Villa 3Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
93.7%
James Conner run for 3 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:047% → 6%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.1%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Ryan Bell for 15 yds to the Villa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
92.8%
Jarrett McClenton run for 3 yds to the Villa 43 VILLANOVA Penalty, illegal block (Ryan Bell) to the Villa 33Similar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 17
OWN 33
+8
93.4%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Ryan Bell for 8 yds to the Villa 41Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
93.2%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
93.3%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Taurus Phillips, broken up by Dennis BriggsSimilar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 9
OWN 41
-7
93.7%
John Hinchen punt for 42 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
93.1%
Nathan Peterman run for 2 yds to the Pitt 12Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
93.1%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, broken up by Malik ReavesSimilar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+10
92.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 10 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.2%
James Conner run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
93.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 4 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
Q2 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
93.0%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
92.8%
Ryan Winslow punt for 53 yds, downed at the Villa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:517% → 7%
Q2 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
92.7%
Javon White run for 5 yds to the Villa 23Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 5
OWN 23
0
92.5%
Javon White run for no gain to the Villa 23Similar
Q2 1:38
3RD & 5
OWN 23
-11
92.5%
Zack Bednarczyk sacked by Mike Caprara and Ejuan Price for a loss of 11 yards to the Villa 12Similar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 16
OWN 12
+14
92.9%
John Hinchen punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Villa 32 , Quadree Henderson returns for 14 yds to the Villa 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:0293% → 95%
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
93.1%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Villa 28Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
93.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 9 yds to the Villa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
93.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete, PENALTY UP illegal block (Alex Bookser) 10 yards to the VU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+9
93.1%
James Conner run for 9 yds to the Villa 20Similar
Q2 1:21
2ND & 11
OPP 20
+11
93.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 11 yds to the Villa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
93.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
94.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Villa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
97.7%
Javon White run for 3 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
97.6%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Taurus Phillips for 3 yds to the Villa 30Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+5
97.6%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Javon White for 5 yds to the Villa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
97.6%
Zack Bednarczyk run for 2 yds to the Villa 37Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-10
97.6%
Zack Bednarczyk sacked by Ejuan Price for a loss of 10 yards to the Villa 27Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
97.7%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Lincoln CollinsSimilar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
97.7%
John Hinchen punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Pitt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 20FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -15 yds · 0:5898% → 95%
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
98.2%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Scott OrndoffSimilar
Q3 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+1
98.2%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Pitt 19Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+3
94.6%
Nathan Peterman sacked by Drew Wiley for a loss of 16 yards Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Villa Rob Rolle , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds, (Gerard Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:4995% → 95%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
94.8%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 15 yds to the Pitt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
95.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 6 yds to the Pitt 45Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-2
95.1%
Qadree Ollison run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+13
94.9%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Scott Orndoff for 13 yds to the Villa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+11
95.1%
Qadree Ollison run for 11 yds to the Villa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
95.2%
Darrin Hall run for 5 yds to the Villa 28Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-2
95.2%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 30Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+1
95.0%
Qadree Ollison run for 1 yd to the Villa 29Similar
Q3 5:46
4TH & 6
OPP 29
+47
95.0%
Chris Blewitt 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tanoh KpassagnonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 3:136% → 5%
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+20
93.8%
Javon White run for 5 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST down PITTSBURGH Penalty, personal foul (Avonte Maddox) to the Pitt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
93.2%
Javon White run for no gain to the Pitt 48Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-4
93.4%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Ryan Bell for a loss of 4 yards to the Villa 48Similar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 14
OWN 48
+17
94.2%
Zack Bednarczyk run for 17 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
92.8%
Javon White run for 4 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 6
OPP 31
-5
92.5%
VILLANOVA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 36Similar
Q3 5:46
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
93.3%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Taurus Phillips, broken up by Ryan LewisSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 11
OPP 36
-8
95.0%
Zack Bednarczyk sacked by Dennis Briggs for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 44Similar
Q3 2:33
4TH & 19
OPP 44
0
95.4%
John Hinchen punt for 28 yds, downed at the Pitt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:1797% → 97%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
96.6%
James Conner run for 4 yds to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
96.6%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jaymar ParrishSimilar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+8
96.5%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 8 yds to the Pitt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
96.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 8 yds to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
96.8%
James Conner run for no gain to the Pitt 36Similar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+5
96.8%
James Conner rush for 3 yards to the UP39 (Rob Rolle), PENALTY VU offside defense (Tanoh Kpassagnon) 5 yards to the UP41, 1ST DOWN UP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.9%
Qadree Ollison run for 3 yds to the Pitt 44Similar
Q4 14:18
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
96.9%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Jester WeahSimilar
Q4 14:18
3RD & 7
OWN 44
0
96.8%
Nathan Peterman pass incomplete to Dontez FordSimilar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 7
OWN 44
0
96.5%
Ryan Winslow punt for 40 yds, downed at the Villa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
95.8%
Javon White run for 4 yds to the Villa 20 VILLANOVA Penalty, illegal block (Taurus Phillips) to the Villa 10Similar
Q4 12:56
1ST & 16
OWN 10
+3
95.9%
Aaron Forbes run for 3 yds to the Villa 13Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+7
95.9%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Ryan Bell for 7 yds to the Villa 20Similar
Q4 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
95.9%
Adeyemi DaSilva pass incomplete to Javon WhiteSimilar
Q4 12:56
4TH & 6
OWN 20
+20
95.9%
John Hinchen punt for 49 yds , Quadree Henderson returns for 20 yds to the Villa 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 25TD
11 plays · 49 yds · 5:2497% → 100%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
97.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Quadree Henderson for 3 yds to the Villa 46Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+5
97.2%
Qadree Ollison run for 5 yds to the Villa 41Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+4
97.1%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jaymar Parrish for 4 yds to the Villa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
97.2%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Dontez Ford for 10 yds to the Villa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
97.2%
James Conner run for 1 yd to the Villa 26Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+7
97.2%
Darrin Hall run for 7 yds to the Villa 19Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+3
97.2%
Darrin Hall run for 3 yds to the Villa 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
97.2%
Darrin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the Villa 18Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+2
97.2%
Darrin Hall run for 2 yds to the Villa 16Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.7%
Nathan Peterman pass complete to Jester Weah for 16 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
VILLDrive 26DOWNS
16 plays · 36 yds · 5:351% → 0%
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.5%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Taurus PhillipsSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+8
99.5%
Zack Bednarczyk run for 8 yds to the Villa 27Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+5
99.5%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Javon White for 5 yds to the Villa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
99.5%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Zac Kerxton for 15 yds to the Villa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
99.5%
Zack Bednarczyk pass complete to Jarrett McClenton for 6 yds to the Pitt 47Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
99.4%
Javon White run for 6 yds to the Pitt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
99.4%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+8
99.8%
Zack Bednarczyk run for 8 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
99.7%
Javon White run for 3 yds to the Pitt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
99.8%
Zack Bednarczyk run for 1 yd to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Zack Bednarczyk pass incomplete to Alex PadovaniSimilar
Q4 3:06
3RD & 9
OPP 29
-6
99.8%
Zack Bednarczyk sacked by Avonte Maddox for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 15
OPP 35
-10
99.8%
Zack Bednarczyk sacked by Avonte Maddox for a loss of 10 yards to the Pitt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
SACK · Q3 10:35
Nathan Peterman sacked by Drew Wiley for a loss of 16 yards Nathan Peterman fumbled, recovered by Villa Rob Rolle , return for 0 yards , return for 3 yds, (Gerard Smith KICK)
-3.7
TD · Q3 14:48
Steve Weyler kickoff for 61 yds , Quadree Henderson return for 96 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+2.9
TD · Q2 0:19
Nathan Peterman pass complete to James Conner for 9 yds for a TD, (Chris Blewitt KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com