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NCCU

North Carolina Central 6 at Duke 49

DUKE
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Wallace Wade Stadium
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Win probability · DUKE
modelDUKE aheadNCCU aheadconfidence bandkey playDUKE scoreNCCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Nathaniel Tilque punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+43.8Home team on offense+9.5Score differential+6.6Blowout margin+0.5Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:12: Jela Duncan 3 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +0.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 3:25: Johnathan Lloyd 55 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick) — DUKE win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:19: Daniel Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 7:08: Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 20 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:56: Parker Boehme pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK) — DUKE win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: DUKE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
DUKE made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NCCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 14
  1. Q1 15:00NCCU 4th & 11 at NCCU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18NCCU 4th & 14 at NCCU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:57DUKE 4th & 13 at NCCU 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−<0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:28NCCU 4th & 7 at NCCU 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:18NCCU 4th & 3 at NCCU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00NCCU 4th & 23 at DUKE 35, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:14NCCU 4th & 4 at NCCU 29, down 28
    Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:33NCCU 4th & 5 at NCCU 46, down 35
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00DUKE 4th & 8 at DUKE 39, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:02NCCU 4th & 7 at NCCU 13, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:25DUKE 4th & 13 at DUKE 46, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:31NCCU 4th & 15 at NCCU 27, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:49DUKE 4th & 5 at DUKE 46, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:29NCCU 4th & 1 at NCCU 25, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:16NCCU 4th & 9 at DUKE 31, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:09DUKE 4th & 9 at DUKE 28, up 46
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:12NCCU 4th & 1 at DUKE 16, down 46
    Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    -0.0%−0.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:37NCCU 4th & 7 at DUKE 41, down 43
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:21DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 40, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:26DUKE 4th & 1 at NCCU 15, up 43
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:17DUKE 4th & 5 at NCCU 9, up 43
    Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:12NCCU 4th & 6 at NCCU 13, down 43
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
DUKE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 12:23DUKE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:12DUKE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:25DUKE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:19DUKE Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:08DUKE Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:56DUKE Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:00DUKE Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NCCUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
98.8%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen Wilkes, broken up by DeVon EdwardsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
98.8%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Quentin Atkinson for 13 yds to the NCCtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
98.8%
LaVontis Smith run for no gain to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
98.8%
Malcolm Bell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 33
-1
98.8%
Malcolm Bell sacked by Joe Giles-Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 32
+36
98.8%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 52 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 36 yds to the NCCtl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 2TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 0:5099% → 99%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
98.6%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 45Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-15
98.6%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (-15 Yards) to the Duke 40Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 22
OWN 40
-10
98.6%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:23
2ND & 32
50
+50
98.6%
Jela Duncan run for 50 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
98.6%
Malcolm Bell sacked by A.J. Wolf for a loss of 2 yards to the NCCtl 14Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+3
98.6%
Dorrel McClain run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 17Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
98.6%
Malcolm Bell pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 9
OWN 17
-5
98.6%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 12Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 14
OWN 12
0
98.6%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 39 yds, downed at the Duke 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 44Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+21
98.5%
Daniel Jones run for 21 yds to the NCCtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for no gain to the NCCtl 35Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
98.5%
Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 8
OPP 33
0
98.5%
Daniel Jones pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 8
OPP 33
-5
98.5%
DUKE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NCCtl 38Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 13
OPP 38
0
98.5%
Austin Parker punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 5INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
98.3%
Dorrel McClain run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 21Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
98.3%
Malcolm Bell run for no gain to the NCCtl 21Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
98.3%
Malcolm Bell pass intercepted Breon Borders return for no gain to the NCCtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 6TD
7 plays · 34 yds · 2:2398% → 98%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+11
98.3%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Shaun Wilson for 11 yds to the NCCtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
98.3%
Duncan, J rush for 23 yards to the NCCU0, PENALTY DU holding (Stone, T) 10 yards to the NCCU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+1
98.2%
Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 32Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+4
98.2%
Jela Duncan run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 28Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+25
98.2%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Daniel Helm for 25 yds to the NCCtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
98.3%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NCCtl 3Similar
Q1 5:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.4%
Jela Duncan 3 Yd Run (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:392% → 2%
Q1 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
98.2%
Torri Cotton run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 11Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 9
OWN 11
0
98.2%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Torri CottonSimilar
Q1 4:28
3RD & 9
OWN 11
+2
98.3%
Malcolm Bell run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 13Similar
Q1 4:28
4TH & 7
OWN 13
+5
98.3%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 37 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 5 yds to the Duke 18 DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Duke 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 8TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
98.7%
Johnathan Lloyd 55 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 3:18
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
98.7%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 35 yds , Ryan Smith returns for no gain to the Duke 36 Ryan Smith fumbled, recovered by NCCtl Ronald ConyersSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
98.7%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to David Miller for 5 yds to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
98.6%
Dorrel McClain run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 31Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
98.6%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Quentin Atkinson NC CENTRAL Penalty, P1 ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:381% → 1%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
98.6%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Quentin AtkinsonSimilar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+14
98.6%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to David Miller for 14 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
98.6%
Dorrel McClain run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 25Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 13
OPP 25
-15
98.6%
Malcolm Bell sacked by A.J. Wolf for a loss of 15 yards to the Duke 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 28
OPP 40
+5
98.7%
Malcolm Bell run for 5 yds to the Duke 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 23
OPP 35
0
98.7%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 11TD
11 plays · 91 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
98.6%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 11Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-5
98.6%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 6Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 13
OWN 6
+14
98.6%
Jela Duncan run for 14 yds to the Duke 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
98.6%
Jela Duncan run for 11 yds to the Duke 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
98.7%
Jela Duncan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 29 Jela Duncan fumbled, recovered by Duke Jela DuncanSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+17
98.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 17 yds to the Duke 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.7%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Shaun WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
98.7%
Shaun Wilson run for 12 yds to the NCCtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+35
98.7%
Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 35 yds to the NCCtl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.4%
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
99.4%
Dorrel McClain run for 15 yds to the NCCtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
99.4%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Glen Calvin for 1 yd to the NCCtl 24Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 9
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Dorrel McClainSimilar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 9
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Malcolm Bell pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 9
OWN 24
+5
99.4%
DUKE Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NCCtl 29Similar
Q2 11:14
4TH & 4
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 13TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:4299% → 100%
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Quay Chambers for 4 yds to the Duke 39Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 6
OWN 39
-3
99.4%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+15
99.4%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 15 yds to the NCCtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
99.4%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 10 yds to the NCCtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
99.4%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 38Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
99.4%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Chris Taylor, broken up by Nolan CorpeningSimilar
Q2 9:50
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+15
99.4%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Helm, D, PENALTY NCCU pass interference 15 yards to the NCCU23, 1ST DOWN DU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
99.4%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 20Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 20
+20
99.6%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 20 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 14FUMBLE
2 plays · 21 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
99.6%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to Khalil Stinson for 15 yds Khalil Stinson fumbled, forced by Bryon Fields, recovered by Duke Tinashe Bere , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 15FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
50
+2
99.6%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 48Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
99.6%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Aaron Young for 6 yds to the NCCtl 42Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+5
99.5%
Parker Boehme run for 5 yds to the NCCtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-4
99.6%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Joseph Ajeigbe for a loss of 4 yards Joseph Ajeigbe fumbled, forced by Alden McClellon, recovered by NCCtl Tavon LoftiesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:520% → 0%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Jalen WilkesSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
99.6%
Torri Cotton run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 47Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
99.7%
Malcolm Bell run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 1
50
-4
99.7%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, delay of game (-4 Yards) to the NCCtl 46Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
99.7%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 35 yds, downed at the Duke 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 17TD
8 plays · 81 yds · 2:53100% → 100%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
99.6%
Jela Duncan run for 10 yds to the Duke 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
99.6%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Chris Taylor for 7 yds to the Duke 36Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+34
99.6%
Parker Boehme run for 19 yds to the DUKE 45 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Cyrus Stanback) to the NCCtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
99.6%
DUKE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NCCtl 40Similar
Q2 3:49
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+6
99.6%
Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 34Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 14
OPP 34
-4
99.6%
Jela Duncan run for a loss of 4 yards to the NCCtl 38Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 18
OPP 38
+34
99.6%
Parker Boehme run for 34 yds to the NCCtl 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 4 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 18TD
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the NCCtl 15Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
99.8%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Quay Chambers for 7 yds to the NCCtl 8Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 8
+8
99.8%
Parker Boehme run for 8 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+7
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 7 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
99.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-10
99.8%
Jones, D pass incomplete to Schneider, E, PENALTY DU holding (Baker, Z) 10 yards to the DU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 31
+3
99.8%
Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
99.8%
Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel HelmSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 34
+5
99.8%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, illegal formation (5 Yards) to the Duke 39Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
99.8%
Austin Parker punt for 51 yds, fair catch by LaVontis Smith at the NCCtl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
99.9%
Dorrel McClain run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 12Similar
Q3 13:02
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+1
99.9%
Dorrel McClain run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 13Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 7
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Khalil StinsonSimilar
Q3 13:02
4TH & 7
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 52 yds, downed at the Duke 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 37Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+12
99.8%
Jela Duncan run for 12 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Parker Boehme run for no gain to the Duke 49Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
99.8%
Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 48Similar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 7
OPP 48
-6
99.8%
Parker Boehme sacked by Alden McClellon for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 11:25
4TH & 13
OWN 46
0
99.8%
Austin Parker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by LaVontis Smith at the NCCtl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Dorrel McClain run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 21Similar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Quentin AtkinsonSimilar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+11
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 11 yds to the NCCtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Khalil StinsonSimilar
Q3 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.9%
LaVontis Smith run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 33Similar
Q3 8:31
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-6
99.9%
Malcolm Bell sacked by A.J. Wolf for a loss of 6 yards to the NCCtl 27Similar
Q3 8:31
4TH & 15
OWN 27
-3
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 47 yds , Shaun Wilson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Chris TaylorSimilar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+18
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass complete to Davis Koppenhaver for 18 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-5
99.9%
DUKE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Duke 36Similar
Q3 5:49
1ST & 15
OWN 36
+2
99.9%
Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the Duke 38Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 13
OWN 38
+8
99.9%
Parker Boehme run for 8 yds to the Duke 46Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Parker Boehme pass incomplete to Davis KoppenhaverSimilar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
99.9%
Austin Parker punt for 39 yds, fair catch by LaVontis Smith at the NCCtl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Ramone SimpsonSimilar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 16
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Glen CalvinSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 10
OWN 16
+9
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass complete to LaVontis Smith for 9 yds to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Shaun Wilson at the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 25FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
99.9%
Quay Mann run for a loss of 5 yards to the Duke 32 Quay Mann fumbled, recovered by NCCtl Antonio BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 26FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q3 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
99.9%
Torri Cotton run for 3 yds to the Duke 29Similar
Q3 2:34
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-2
99.9%
Torri Cotton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 31Similar
Q3 1:28
3RD & 9
OPP 31
0
100.0%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to David MillerSimilar
Q3 1:16
4TH & 9
OPP 31
+48
99.9%
Brandon McLaren 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 27FUMBLE
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 1 yd to the Duke 28Similar
Q3 1:09
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Quay ChambersSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Ryan SmithSimilar
Q3 1:09
4TH & 9
OWN 28
-6
99.9%
Austin Parker run for a loss of 6 yards to the Duke 25 Austin Parker fumbled, recovered by NCCtl Kenneth O'NealSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 28FG
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
99.9%
Malcolm Bell run for 3 yds to the Duke 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Khalil StinsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+6
100.0%
Malcolm Bell run for 6 yds to the Duke 16Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+34
99.9%
Brandon McLaren 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 29FUMBLE
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 5 yds to the Duke 45Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 4 yds to the Duke 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
99.9%
Zach Boden run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 44 Zach Boden fumbled, recovered by NCCtl Jeremy MilesSimilar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 4 yds to the Duke 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
100.0%
Naiil Ramadan run for no gain to the Duke 44Similar
Q4 12:37
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-6
100.0%
Ramone Simpson run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 16
50
+9
100.0%
Naiil Ramadan run for 9 yds to the Duke 41Similar
Q4 12:37
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 24 yds, downed at the Duke 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 31DOWNS
20 plays · 74 yds · 8:04100% → 100%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 3 yds to the Duke 20Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+7
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 7 yds to the Duke 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 5 yds to the Duke 32Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+19
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 36 for a 1ST down NC CENTRAL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the NCCtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
99.9%
Quentin Harris run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 43Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+1
100.0%
Zach Boden run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 42Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 40Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+6
99.9%
Zach Boden run for 6 yds to the NCCtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 8 yds to the NCCtl 26Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+2
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 2 yds to the NCCtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-1
100.0%
Quentin Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCCtl 25Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 11
OPP 25
+7
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 7 yds to the NCCtl 18Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+3
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 3 yds to the NCCtl 15Similar
Q4 4:26
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+1
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
100.0%
Quentin Harris run for 4 yds to the NCCtl 10Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 6
OPP 10
0
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for no gain to the NCCtl 10Similar
Q4 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+1
100.0%
Nicodem Pierre run for 1 yd to the NCCtl 9Similar
Q4 2:17
4TH & 5
OPP 9
0
100.0%
Quentin Harris pass incomplete to Aaron YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NCCUDrive 32PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
100.0%
NC CENTRAL Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the NCCtl 5Similar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 14
OWN 5
-4
100.0%
Malcolm Bell sacked by Trevon McSwain for a loss of 4 yards to the NCCtl 1Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 18
OWN 1
+12
100.0%
Torri Cotton run for 12 yds to the NCCtl 13Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
100.0%
Malcolm Bell pass incomplete to Khalil StinsonSimilar
Q4 2:12
4TH & 6
OWN 13
0
100.0%
Nathaniel Tilque punt for 50 yds, downed at the Duke 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
DUKEDrive 33END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
100.0%
Griffin Carter run for 4 yds to the Duke 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:19
Daniel Jones run for 7 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q1 3:25
Johnathan Lloyd 55 Yd pass from Daniel Jones (AJ Reed Kick)
+0.4
TD · Q2 7:08
Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 20 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)
+0.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com